'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

[MeBelle]

Oh hey!

Look what I found!!!!!

Update California 'drought' 05/22

 

[Weatherman2020]

I wonder if we are in for another dust bowl, combined with economic collapse. This is also includes areas that have seen a big increase in population.


'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Megadroughts – defined as intense droughts that last for decades or longer – once plagued the Desert Southwest. Thanks to global warming, an especially fierce one appears to be coming back:

"We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts," said study lead author A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University, in a statement. This is “a drought bigger than what modern society has seen."

Scientists say that about half of this historic drought can be blamed on man-made global warming. Some of the impacts today include shrinking reservoirs and worsening wildfire seasons.

Megadroughts could return to southwestern U.S.

Severe droughts parched western North America hundreds of years ago. They may return, thanks to climate change.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Described in a comprehensive new study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, scientists now understand the causes of the megadroughts common during the medieval period. With climate change, they predict more megadroughts in the future.
"What’s new here is they are really putting the pieces together in a way that hasn’t been done before,” says Connie Woodhouse, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who was uninvolved with the study.

A string of decade-long droughts occurred in the American Southwest during the medieval period, between 800 and 1600 CE. The researchers tied together previously existing theories about megadroughts to discover three main drivers.
Lead author Nathan Steiger, a climate scientist at Columbia University, says that the study was “exciting scientifically, but [the] consequences are not good” for a warming future.

Their analysis pinpoints three main factors causing megadroughts in the American Southwest: Cooling water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, warming water in the Atlantic Ocean, and something called radiative forcing. A novel part of this study, Steiger says, was “showing that radiative forcing is important too for causing these megadroughts.”

Good thing California is not building any water infrastructure and letting fresh water to run into the ocean for a 2” fish that is not endangered. I’m going to enjoy looking at the parched, dry, cracking lips of Californians.

 

[Sunsettommy]

I think that's a very simplistic view of changing precipitation patterns.

But the biggest driver of those decade-long droughts, reports Steiger, is La Niña, an environmental phenomenon that includes cooling temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. La Niña events occur on a multi-year cycle, alternating with the more familiar El Niño events that warm ocean waters and can ravage coral reef systems in the tropics.​

​

“La Niñas are twice as important” as warming in the Atlantic and radiative forcing, Steiger says.​

​

Unusually cold and frequent La Niñas shift where storm systems travel, inducing drought or very wet conditions in localized areas. La Niñas in North America generally push storms north, explained Steiger, toward states in the Pacific Northwest. That means the Southwest receives less rain.​

So, what the OP article alleges is an increasing severity of mega-droughts, sparked by La Niña events - compounded by higher evaporation in the South-West due to climate change and the ensuing higher temperatures - pushing precipitation northward.

La Nina changes year-to-year ... and is considered a dynamic element of the system ... just looking at the past fifty years there doesn't seem to be any correlation between temperatures and the ENSO ... and it is an oscillation, a thing we try to "average out" for our climate discussions ...

I don't see how a seasonal ocean anomaly would cause a ten year drought ... I understand that the temperate storms generally tracks further North during La Nina years, but then the track returns to more average the following year breaking any drought ... not ten years later, but the very next year ... I noticed that the two most recent bad droughts in California line up quite well with a persistent, although mild, El Nino cycle

We have a different dynamic situation that causes these megadroughts, something that keeps high pressure over the region for decades at a time ... I don't know what that could be, but obviously it did happen ... we do need to keep in mind the proximity of the desert belt, places where it's normally dry anyway ...

Megadroughts are a naturally occurring process but what the article is saying is climate change may further complicate and worsen them.

Megadroughts used to be common, but not anymore, what we have been getting in recent decades are short term droughts, between wet periods.

North American Drought: Reconstructions, Causes, and Consequences

Data is from HERE

=====

NASA Study Finds 1934 Had Worst Drought of Last Thousand Years

===
University of Arizona Scientists Find Evidence of Roman Period Megadrought

 

[jwoodie]

Did you miss the parts that stated climate change isn’t a cause but may exacerbate these mega droughts?

So climate change may exacerbate climate change? How profound.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Coyote, it finally dawned on me that your article is post ONE is a gigantic lie, how? by using the official NOAA Precipitation data, I will show it in several ways to expose the lies of a "study"

Here is what the "study" claims, from POST ONE

'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Claims an emerging "megadrought"

What does the NOAA say about the last five years Precipitation, for the West Climate Region?

2015-2020

+3.81/ decade That is an INCREASE

LINK

===

Since 2001-2020

+.60/ decade That is an INCREASE

LINK

Increase precipitation of the last "nearly 20 years", which means they LIED, since they called it a nearly 20 year drought, in that garbage paper.

===

Since 1900-2020

0.0 /decade FLAT

LINK

======

They used the WESTERN US region for their claims, I just showed you the NOAA precipitation data for the same WESTERN US region to show they lied over and over.

There are no Megadroughts at all in the last 5 years, 20 years and 100 years.

Go ahead look up the links I posted, it goes to the NOAA website, Climate at a Glance.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Coyote, it finally dawned on me that your article is post ONE is a gigantic lie, how? by using the official NOAA Precipitation data, I will show it in several ways to expose the lies of a "study"

Here is what the "study" claims, from POST ONE

'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Claims an emerging "megadrought"

What does the NOAA say about the last five years Precipitation, for the West Climate Region?

2015-2020

+3.81/ decade That is an INCREASE

LINK

===

Since 2001-2020

+.60/ decade That is an INCREASE

LINK

Increase precipitation of the last "nearly 20 years", which means they LIED, since they called it a nearly 20 year drought, in that garbage paper.

===

Since 1900-2020

0.0 /decade FLAT

LINK

======

They used the WESTERN US region for their claims, I just showed you the NOAA precipitation data for the same WESTERN US region to show they lied over and over.

There are no Megadroughts at all in the last 5 years, 20 years and 100 years.

Go ahead look up the links I posted, it goes to the NOAA website, Climate at a Glance.

No way! We must continue to shut down the economy because the computer models say we need to! Stop looking at actual rainfall!

 

[EvilCat Breath]

Coyote, it finally dawned on me that your article is post ONE is a gigantic lie, how? by using the official NOAA Precipitation data, I will show it in several ways to expose the lies of a "study"

Here is what the "study" claims, from POST ONE

'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Claims an emerging "megadrought"

What does the NOAA say about the last five years Precipitation, for the West Climate Region?

2015-2020

+3.81/ decade That is an INCREASE

LINK

===

Since 2001-2020

+.60/ decade That is an INCREASE

LINK

Increase precipitation of the last "nearly 20 years", which means they LIED, since they called it a nearly 20 year drought, in that garbage paper.

===

Since 1900-2020

0.0 /decade FLAT

LINK

======

They used the WESTERN US region for their claims, I just showed you the NOAA precipitation data for the same WESTERN US region to show they lied over and over.

There are no Megadroughts at all in the last 5 years, 20 years and 100 years.

Go ahead look up the links I posted, it goes to the NOAA website, Climate at a Glance.

No way! We must continue to shut down the economy because the computer models say we need to! Stop looking at actual rainfall!

The rainfall is actually pouring down right now.

 

[ReinyDays]

There are no Megadroughts at all in the last 5 years, 20 years and 100 years.

How would we know? ... if we didn't set up our rain gauges until after the megadrought started, we wouldn't recognize it as a drought at all ... the average rainfall is 1/2" per year but only in the past 100 years ... we don't know the average the previous 100 years ...

Cattle were introduced into the Great Basin region long before rain gauges were ... and there's evidence that it did rain more before cattle came and stripped off the ground cover ... when water is in short supply, transpiration is a thing that can cause more rainfall downstream ...

 

[Sunsettommy]

There are no Megadroughts at all in the last 5 years, 20 years and 100 years.

How would we know? ... if we didn't set up our rain gauges until after the megadrought started, we wouldn't recognize it as a drought at all ... the average rainfall is 1/2" per year but only in the past 100 years ... we don't know the average the previous 100 years ...

Cattle were introduced into the Great Basin region long before rain gauges were ... and there's evidence that it did rain more before cattle came and stripped off the ground cover ... when water is in short supply, transpiration is a thing that can cause more rainfall downstream ...

You quoted the wrong person, I wrote that line, which are supported by the NOAA data, heck the last 20 years of NOAA data destroys the megadrought claims by a recent study, since they were lying their asses off.

 

[Dick Foster]

I wonder if we are in for another dust bowl, combined with economic collapse. This is also includes areas that have seen a big increase in population.


'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Megadroughts – defined as intense droughts that last for decades or longer – once plagued the Desert Southwest. Thanks to global warming, an especially fierce one appears to be coming back:

"We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts," said study lead author A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University, in a statement. This is “a drought bigger than what modern society has seen."

Scientists say that about half of this historic drought can be blamed on man-made global warming. Some of the impacts today include shrinking reservoirs and worsening wildfire seasons.

Megadroughts could return to southwestern U.S.

Severe droughts parched western North America hundreds of years ago. They may return, thanks to climate change.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Described in a comprehensive new study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, scientists now understand the causes of the megadroughts common during the medieval period. With climate change, they predict more megadroughts in the future.
"What’s new here is they are really putting the pieces together in a way that hasn’t been done before,” says Connie Woodhouse, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who was uninvolved with the study.

A string of decade-long droughts occurred in the American Southwest during the medieval period, between 800 and 1600 CE. The researchers tied together previously existing theories about megadroughts to discover three main drivers.
Lead author Nathan Steiger, a climate scientist at Columbia University, says that the study was “exciting scientifically, but [the] consequences are not good” for a warming future.

Their analysis pinpoints three main factors causing megadroughts in the American Southwest: Cooling water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, warming water in the Atlantic Ocean, and something called radiative forcing. A novel part of this study, Steiger says, was “showing that radiative forcing is important too for causing these megadroughts.”

I think it would be a good idea for all of you worry warts and chicken littles to do yourselves in so we could all be happier.
BTW your dog won't hunt and you're full of shit.

 

[Coyote]

I wonder if we are in for another dust bowl, combined with economic collapse. This is also includes areas that have seen a big increase in population.


'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Megadroughts – defined as intense droughts that last for decades or longer – once plagued the Desert Southwest. Thanks to global warming, an especially fierce one appears to be coming back:

"We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts," said study lead author A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University, in a statement. This is “a drought bigger than what modern society has seen."

Scientists say that about half of this historic drought can be blamed on man-made global warming. Some of the impacts today include shrinking reservoirs and worsening wildfire seasons.

Megadroughts could return to southwestern U.S.

Severe droughts parched western North America hundreds of years ago. They may return, thanks to climate change.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Described in a comprehensive new study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, scientists now understand the causes of the megadroughts common during the medieval period. With climate change, they predict more megadroughts in the future.
"What’s new here is they are really putting the pieces together in a way that hasn’t been done before,” says Connie Woodhouse, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who was uninvolved with the study.

A string of decade-long droughts occurred in the American Southwest during the medieval period, between 800 and 1600 CE. The researchers tied together previously existing theories about megadroughts to discover three main drivers.
Lead author Nathan Steiger, a climate scientist at Columbia University, says that the study was “exciting scientifically, but [the] consequences are not good” for a warming future.

Their analysis pinpoints three main factors causing megadroughts in the American Southwest: Cooling water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, warming water in the Atlantic Ocean, and something called radiative forcing. A novel part of this study, Steiger says, was “showing that radiative forcing is important too for causing these megadroughts.”

I think it would be a good idea for all of you worry warts and chicken littles to do yourselves in so we could all be happier.
BTW your dog won't hunt and you're full of shit.

Thank you for your insightful and well thought out rebuttal. Upon reading it, I am firmly convinced you have a much better grounding in tbe sciences behind this than any of the idiots studying it. Your points and reasoning are breathtaking in complexity and show a truly deep grasp of the facts. In an era where everyone gets a participation trophy (whether deserved or not) I am giving you an A+ for effort.

Thank you for your contribution to this discussion

 

[Sunsettommy]

Coyote, how come you ignored all of my posts in THIS thread?

My replies to YOU:

Post 63

Post 65

Post 15 a reply to the study in YOUR post one.

I have been very civil in all four posts in the thread, while you sarcastically respond (appropriately) to a nasty post made by Dick Foster...….

 

[Coyote]

I think that's a very simplistic view of changing precipitation patterns.

But the biggest driver of those decade-long droughts, reports Steiger, is La Niña, an environmental phenomenon that includes cooling temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. La Niña events occur on a multi-year cycle, alternating with the more familiar El Niño events that warm ocean waters and can ravage coral reef systems in the tropics.​

​

“La Niñas are twice as important” as warming in the Atlantic and radiative forcing, Steiger says.​

​

Unusually cold and frequent La Niñas shift where storm systems travel, inducing drought or very wet conditions in localized areas. La Niñas in North America generally push storms north, explained Steiger, toward states in the Pacific Northwest. That means the Southwest receives less rain.​

So, what the OP article alleges is an increasing severity of mega-droughts, sparked by La Niña events - compounded by higher evaporation in the South-West due to climate change and the ensuing higher temperatures - pushing precipitation northward.

La Nina changes year-to-year ... and is considered a dynamic element of the system ... just looking at the past fifty years there doesn't seem to be any correlation between temperatures and the ENSO ... and it is an oscillation, a thing we try to "average out" for our climate discussions ...

I don't see how a seasonal ocean anomaly would cause a ten year drought ... I understand that the temperate storms generally tracks further North during La Nina years, but then the track returns to more average the following year breaking any drought ... not ten years later, but the very next year ... I noticed that the two most recent bad droughts in California line up quite well with a persistent, although mild, El Nino cycle

We have a different dynamic situation that causes these megadroughts, something that keeps high pressure over the region for decades at a time ... I don't know what that could be, but obviously it did happen ... we do need to keep in mind the proximity of the desert belt, places where it's normally dry anyway ...

Megadroughts are a naturally occurring process but what the article is saying is climate change may further complicate and worsen them.

Megadroughts used to be common, but not anymore, what we have been getting in recent decades are short term droughts, between wet periods.

View attachment 324836
North American Drought: Reconstructions, Causes, and Consequences

Data is from HERE

=====

NASA Study Finds 1934 Had Worst Drought of Last Thousand Years

===
University of Arizona Scientists Find Evidence of Roman Period Megadrought

Thank you for that article from Columbia.edu, that is an interesting one. As an aside, one of the faculty members I work with does tree ring and drought research, and it is a fascinating field. I do not however, have the expertise to evaluate the science (and I won’t pretend to) so a lot of the actual of it, went over my head. But what I did understand is fascinating.

I notice the article states:

Of central importance to drought formation is the development of cool “La Niña-like” SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific region. This development appears to be partially linked to changes in radiative forcing over that region, which affects the Bjerknes feedback mechanism of the ENSO cycle there. Paradoxically, warmer conditions over the tropical Pacific region lead to the development of cool La Niña-like SSTs there, which is drought-inducing over North America. Whether or not this process will lead to a greater prevalence of drought in the future as the world warms due to accumulating greenhouse gases is unclear at this time.

I think (?) that article is from 2005? So we now have an additional 15 years of research to look at.

This paper doesn’t contradict the article in the OP, which is not making a definitive claim but a possible one. Even a likely one. The claim is not being made that megadroughts are caused by climate change but that they could be influenced by it. Droughts that might not be megadroughts could become them due to climate change.

It also states:
The annual drought maps in Figs. 1 and 2 also illustrate that individual drought years are not necessarily good indicators of cumulative environmental and socioeconomic impacts. One dry year may be accommodated without undue environmental and economic harm providing that it is sufficiently offset by wetter conditions the following year. What really matters is duration because recovery from the cumulative damage of consecutive drought years is more difficult. Thus, while the 1934 drought year clearly exceeds the overall severity of the other years shown in Figs. 1 and 2, it was also part of a much longer sequence of drier than average years (Fye et al., 2004) that resulted in the catastrophic Dust Bowl drought.

Megadroughts are defined droughts exceeding 20 years. So, while long droughts might be more common, it doesn’t look like mega droughts are, and megadroughts appear to be associated with lengthy La Niña conditions in the Pacific (and warming conditions in the Atlantic)...which can be influenced by climate change.

According to this article we might be entering the worst drought in 500 years.
A “megadrought” gripping the western United States is the worst one in 500 years, scientists say. And it’s the first to be influenced by human-caused climate change.

The paper also makes this point, which I agree with.

The drought reconstructions also provide clear evidence for a much drier climate across the West and Great Plains during Medieval times, a drought that lasted with few interruptions for a few hundred years and which greatly taxed both hunter-gatherer and agriculturalist populations (Jones et al., 1999). Such “no analog” megadroughts are scary because the modern-day agricultural and hydrologic systems that depend upon adequate water supplies to produce and function may not have the resilience to survive much beyond the observed “worst case scenario” droughts of the past 100-150 years, e.g., the Dust Bowl drought. So, understanding the causes of these past megadroughts is vitally important.

The 1934 drought, while not a mega drought, is interesting because it’s severity (in terms of consequences and overall destruction) had a clear link to human activities.

 

[Flash]

Meanwhile we had a very significant April snow over a large portion of the US and significant rain in the East.

 

[Coyote]

Coyote, how come you ignored all of my posts in THIS thread?

My replies to YOU:

Post 63

Post 65

Post 15 a reply to the study in YOUR post one.

I have been very civil in all four posts in the thread, while you sarcastically respond (appropriately) to a nasty post made by Dick Foster...….

Hey give me time! I am one finger typing in an iPad . I just answered one of your points in a non snarkey fashion (and I very much appreciate your posts). But I am only one person, I think....here arguing for my side. It is difficult to answer every single point.

 

[Coyote]

Meanwhile we had a very significant April snow over a large portion of the US and significant rain in the East.

Individual events don’t have much meaning. What matters is long term trends and averages.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Here is a quote from the ABSTRACT and from the post one article:

"The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE."

and,

"In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say."

boldings mine
===

Both claims, the science paper and the Article completely ignored the NOAA Precititation data, which calls their claims baldfaced lies:

The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend.

Why did you ignore this type of evidence, in post 65 where I showed very similar results?

That ALONE invalidated the stupid garbage paper!

 

[Sunsettommy]

Digging deeper I find that the "paper" talked about in post one are based on NON EXISTENT soil moisture data!

From their paper is this howler:

“Here, we use 1,586 tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct 0- to 200-cm summer (June to August) soil moisture and snow water equivalent (hereinafter termed “soil moisture” collectively) anomalies on a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid back to 800 CE across western North America [(30); Fig. 1]. Soil-moisture anomalies are standardized relative to the entire 800–2018 CE period, and the magnitude of negative anomalies indicates drought severity. The soil-moisture record targeted in the reconstruction covers 1901–2018 and is referred to as Noah-calibrated soil moisture (31). Because true observations of soil moisture do not exist, this soil-moisture record is modeled based on observed climate."

bolding and size mine

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

This means low resolution at best.....

This is what I call voodo pseudoscience bullcrap!

===

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.
– Richard P. Feynman

 

[Fed Starving]

This drought was done with already I thought. They didn't get rain for something like two years and then a couple years ago the rain started up.

 

[Coyote]

Here is a quote from the ABSTRACT and from the post one article:

"The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE."

and,

"In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say."

boldings mine
===

Both claims, the science paper and the Article completely ignored the NOAA Precititation data, which calls their claims baldfaced lies:

The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend.

Why did you ignore this type of evidence, in post 65 where I showed very similar results?

That ALONE invalidated the stupid garbage paper!

Well first off...the NOAA source did not call it a bald faced lie. You did.

If there is no drought....then why are farmers and ranchers feeling the effects of it?

Deepening Drought In Western U.S. Costs Ranchers Money And Heartache

Texas cattle ranchers face tough decision to cull or sell herds as drought deepens

Cattle ranchers in Texas must choose between investing in more hay or culling herds amid a deepening drought. Ranches could take years to rebound.

www.usatoday.com

Farmers, ranchers mitigate impacts of drought with good planning | NRCS