bripat9643
Diamond Member
- Apr 1, 2011
- 170,169
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It's a huge problem. Spending drives the economy, and saving is a drag on consumption, harming the economy. The government should do its best to get dollars into the hands of the poor and middle class, and do all it can to encourage spending.How about the fact that a majority of our wealth has flowed to the infamous 1%... Should the government be motivated to stimulate the private sector and top earners to spend more, saving less and putting more money into circulation or do you see it as a simple matter of government deficit spending?Well, inflation has never been an issue apart from the 70's which was an example of cost push inflation. (Inflation due to energy prices.)I appreciate the response and details you went into. The economics is fascinating. To dig a little deeper, when does inflation become a problem and what are the most contributing factors?The debt cliff fear mongering is done by both sides. It's absolute nonsense and a political game. People have claimed that treasury securities are going to collapse the nation for decades and that we'll have to "pay for it" and all of this other nonsense. It's all politics. The "national debt" simply accounts for treasury securities, but in reality, all forms of government issued currency are liabilities of the government, reserves/notes/coins.. Those aren't included in the national debt fear mongering though. Bonds are, quite literally, an interest earning term savings account. Economic stimulus is a wonderful thing, fiscal policy works much better then monetary policy. The new deal, reagan's deficit spending, the recent stimulus.. Deficit spending is a necessity, there's a reason we run a net deficit.Interesting read... I am curious though, I hear plenty fear mongering by the conservatives about the debt cliff and other arguments that are so lopsided that it is hard to take seriously. I'd like to hear from somebody from the other side who see's the benefits of economic stimulus and deficit spending... What are the cautions and possible negative effects that can happen from having an extremely large debt? Is there a breaking point and how is it measured? and what is a healthy goal for spending and debt levels to have a sustainable and flourishing economy?
Read this:
I tend to laugh out loud at the ignorant fools who want to balance the budget for eternity. These people are truly idiots.Deficits are considered to represent sinful profligate spending at the expense of future generations who will be left with a smaller endowment of invested capital.
This fallacy seems to stem from a false analogy to borrowing by individuals. Current reality is almost the exact opposite. Deficits add to the net disposable income of individuals, to the extent that government disbursements that constitute income to recipients exceed that abstracted from disposable income in taxes, fees, and other charges. This added purchasing power, when spent, provides markets for private production, inducing producers to invest in additional plant capacity, which will form part of the real heritage left to the future. This is in addition to whatever public investment takes place in infrastructure, education, research, and the like. Larger deficits, sufficient to recycle savings out of a growing gross domestic product (GDP) in excess of what can be recycled by profit-seeking private investment, are not an economic sin but an economic necessity. Deficits in excess of a gap growing as a result of the maximum feasible growth in real output might indeed cause problems, but we are nowhere near that level.
Even the analogy itself is faulty. If General Motors, AT&T, and individual households had been required to balance their budgets in the manner being applied to the Federal government, there would be no corporate bonds, no mortgages, no bank loans, and many fewer automobiles, telephones, and houses.
I also laugh at people who believe countercylical fiscal policy is a failure. You can't ignore hard data. It's common for people to do this though.
Well, now that we've acknowledged the "national debt" simply represents bonds that are used as a place to save government issued dollars, and if you want to get wonky, bonds are also used to help the central bank manage interest rates. Anyways, nothing can stop us from crediting accounts of the entities that hold bonds when the time comes to "pay the interest." The only reason we're in a situation where people believe that taxes are needed to fund anything is ignorance. Greenspan, Bernanke, others know what is really going on. The average american doesn't care, or believes the government is a household, which is absolute nonsense. Now, "debt" is a problem for governments that do one of these things:
1.) Use a foreign currency, without the ability to create it when needed, having to rely on a foreign entity. (Greece)
2.) A country that pegs their currency.
Now, Japan's debt to GDP is simply massive, and are they collapsing? Absolutely not, because they don't fit any of the above conditions. Now, should we let debt to gdp get as high as Japan? That's up to the reader to decide, but right now, debt to GDP is absolutely fine.
A healthy goal for spending is to get to full employment, which I and others define as:
"Less then 2 percent unemployment, close to zero underemployment, and close to zero hidden unemployment."
Now, that seems like a pipedream, but the best way to aim spending towards full employment is to aim towards a pipe dream. Unfortunately, we have people who believe getting UE below 4.5% (Number is around there) will cause crippling inflation. That number used to be higher, until the 90's where they kept lowering it..
I'd like to borrow this quote, and it really demonstrates the importance of the government running a net deficit:
Unfortunately, no one cares about private sector debt. It's what we need to be worrying about, not the treasury securities of a currency issuer that doesn't peg, have any foreign debt, and doesn't use a foreign currency. The national debt is absolutely necessary, it simply represents money the government has given the domestic private sector/foreign sector. It's earned money saved in the safest vehicle there is, bonds. Nothing to worry about. And I suppose I should ask, are we paying for the world war 2 "debt?" Are we throwing real resources into a time portal? We're idiots! We're worrying about something that benefits the private sector and the world, while we have real issues. Unemployment, education, the military..The private sector cannot survive in negative territory. It cannot go on, year after year, spending more than its income. It is not like the US government. It cannot support rising indebtedness in perpetuity. It is not a currency issuer. Eventually, something will give. And when it does, the private sector will retrench, the economy will contract, and the government's budget will move back into deficit."
Inflation becomes an issue when demand exceeds supply, which is the only real inflation risk. It's easy to avoid this though, using taxes to drain dollars, reducing spending, etc..
Savings harms the economy? All growth is the result of savings. Only someone trying to justify a huge wasteful rapacious government would claim savings is harmful.