Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[Liability]

"when."

Newflash, just for you, JoeBitch. Your Obamessiah is not going to win. He is going to lose.

No. Those terms are not synonyms.

Sorry, guy, Obama will win a second term, easily.

Romney has jumped the shark.

Ended when he stammered his sweaty forhead through the third debate.

False as always from you.

It didn't end. But if you want to identify the moment when The ONE sealed his fate as the LOSER, just replay the First Debate.

Loop it in fact.



Obama: A one term proposition.

Thank God.

 

[LadyGunSlinger]

i wouldn't say it's higly unreliable. they're right-leaning, but i think they try. and i've always found it more valuable to take averages. historically, they've given a clearer picture than any one poll.

it does appear that when polling by the most respected pollster is consistently +5 then romney has a problem in ohio.

there are no more debates.
there are only ads and campaign stops and ground game. so the question becomes what changes the dynamic in the next 12 days?

Take a look at this entire paragraph. Improper sentence structure, run on sentences.. Hell, my 1st grader can form better paragraphs! You're an attorney???????????? LMFAO God help your clients!

The only thing improper about her paragraph is that she doesn't capitalize.

such a loon you are! How's your latest meltdown going?

Raging Ravi is as stoopid as Hagitha.. Quite obvious you don't know what a run on sentence is either but being you're sooo offended that someone insulted a member of your HAG squad, try next time to make a little sense in your retort.. Don't thank me DUMMY, free advice!

 

[Seawytch]

It's not just Nate, who has been one of the most accurate pollsters. The President is the favorite in Vegas too. They haven't been wrong yet.

 

[Seawytch]

And the kids on Nickelodeon? They picked President Obama too...by a HUGE margin. They've gotten 5 out of the last 6 Presidents right.

 

[Liability]

And the kids on Nickelodeon? They picked President Obama too...by a HUGE margin. They've gotten 5 out of the last 6 Presidents right.

^

Seabyscuit brings a rich new dimension to the meaning of the phrase, "clutching at straws."

 

[Seawytch]

And the kids on Nickelodeon? They picked President Obama too...by a HUGE margin. They've gotten 5 out of the last 6 Presidents right.

^

Seabyscuit brings a rich new dimension to the meaning of the phrase, "clutching at straws."

How is pointing out facts "clutching at straws"?

They have picked the last 5 out of 6 Presidents. The only got Bush/Kerry wrong....

Or did they?

http://www.google.com/search?q=what+went+wrong+in+ohio&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari

 

[Liability]

And the kids on Nickelodeon? They picked President Obama too...by a HUGE margin. They've gotten 5 out of the last 6 Presidents right.

^

Seabyscuit brings a rich new dimension to the meaning of the phrase, "clutching at straws."

How is pointing out facts "clutching at straws"?

They have picked the last 5 out of 6 Presidents. The only got Bush/Kerry wrong....

Or did they?

what went wrong in ohio - Google Search

^

If the children say it and they have "called it" correctly 5 out of 6 times, then the race must be over.

You are SUCH a plodding witless hack.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Romney will more than likely take PA and OH. O doesnt have a clear path anymore. I see the dems have taken refuge with 538. They dropped rcp like a cheap whore.

 

[buckeye45_73]

He tried to cover it up as something it wasn't. He lied about it, blamed it on an innocent man, who is now living in fear for his life and has delayed and delayed the truth.

It had to come from reporters.

So, how does is feel to support an amoral "person" as President?

Oh, please, guy....

The CIA has said that the movie was a cause of the attack.

Oh, but look, there was a facebook posting taking credit for the attack. Why wasn't the White House checking Facebook?

OMG you're a fucking moron about the video...it didnt cause shit.....it was released in July....
Wow libtards are dumber than I thought....I thought you guys could see through that one....but I guess you like it up the ass.....no other explanation

 

[JustSomeGuy]

Once upon a time, I respected Nate Silver, but he seems to have long since jumped the proverbial shark. Look at his most current post declaring how momentum for Romney has stopped. Now go back and look at his posts regarding favorable polling for Romney and how he dismisses them as merely "statistical noise". How does that work?

Looking at RCP, Romney leads in six of ten of the latest polls, Obama leads in three and they are tied in one of them. Even if you go over to TPM and look at their daily tracker, Romney leads in five of the last nine polls while Obama leads in four. Obama doesn't reach the 50% mark on any poll on TPM's tracker while Obama only reaches 50% in one on RCP's average. So how does he predict Obama will get 50% of the vote and has a 71% chance of winning? Dude is weighting some polls more heavily than others is the only explanation I have.

(And even today the AP released a poll with Romney up 2. I wonder what he will say about that?)

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Quick what's another name for the Obama Re-Election Campaign?


Answer: Like the man himself, "FAIL!"

er... you're starting to sound a little hysterical, hon. chill... it's an election, not a terminal illness.

A lot of them will require hospitalization when Obama wins...

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Quick what's another name for the Obama Re-Election Campaign?


Answer: Like the man himself, "FAIL!"

er... you're starting to sound a little hysterical, hon. chill... it's an election, not a terminal illness.

I am not the one backing the dope.....

'Tis true!!

That'd be.....

PORKY!!!!!!!!!!

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Once upon a time, I respected Nate Silver, but he seems to have long since jumped the proverbial shark. Look at his most current post declaring how momentum for Romney has stopped. Now go back and look at his posts regarding favorable polling for Romney and how he dismisses them as merely "statistical noise". How does that work?

Looking at RCP, Romney leads in six of ten of the latest polls, Obama leads in three and they are tied in one of them. Even if you go over to TPM and look at their daily tracker, Romney leads in five of the last nine polls while Obama leads in four. Obama doesn't reach the 50% mark on any poll on TPM's tracker while Obama only reaches 50% in one on RCP's average. So how does he predict Obama will get 50% of the vote and has a 71% chance of winning? Dude is weighting some polls more heavily than others is the only explanation I have.

(And even today the AP released a poll with Romney up 2. I wonder what he will say about that?)

He's very heavily bent liberal. He tries to mask it in his write-ups but he bends over for them.

 

[deaddogseye]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

Ya....nice try...you know who he is and you know how accurate he is.

I know who he is -- but what he does is vastly overrated. Its not hard to pick the electoral college just by eyeballing the polls right before the election. he dresses it up with some fancy math and makes a blog of it (and good for him if he can make a little $$$ of that) but its like the wizzard of oz.

how accurate is he really? some articles gush at how he picked 50 of 51 states (counting DC) last time but so what? So did I. im sure a lot of others got all 50. its not hard to pick about 42-46 of the states; they are not in doubt.
The real key is he missed one and how many were in real doubt? to me if you miss one thats a failure, not a success. right now if you had to pick today id say there are 2 in real doubt -- Iowa and NH, maybe Colorado.

so while he is right that obama is likely to win its really pretty obvious. good for him that he can keep himself busy doing it but he really is much (or at least some) ado about nothing (or not much).

Also, remeber he is a highly partisan Democratic shill and has shown to be highly unethical and deceitful. in 2008 while writing his blog he failed to mention that he was working as an undisclosed consultant for the obama campaign being fed there internal polling data (a campaigns data is generally thought to be the gold standard of polling data) so when he wrote he wasnt writing as just an obama supporter (which he did admit to being) but as an obama advisor -- which is a BIG difference.

Also he subsequently has avoided answering the issue. he says only he has worked as an unpaid advisor to campaigns but of course that is not true here either. he was provided extremely valuable data in return for his services (arguably which you couldnt even put aprice on its so valuable) so he was clearly compensated -- maybe not in cash but with great value nonetheless.

At the end of the day he is just anotehr democratic hack pushing the narrative that obama is winning in hopes of rallying the vote for him (just as the Republican hacks push the romney is surginy / winning narrative); thats all he really is (note that there is NEVER with him truly good news for a Repub. candidate. Even when he acknoweldges something he goes to great length to then discredit its apparent significane. And do you really think hed be affiliated with the new yourk times if he were otherwise? Really?

 

[deaddogseye]

BTW -- intrade today has it at about 58% to 42% for Obama. more realistic assessment i think

 

[JimH52]

Obama defeated McCain in Ohio in 2008 by 3%. I see an average of 2% for Obama in Ohio now. It is still very close. There will be no blowout.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

He might not look it, but he's a HELL-of-lot-more-hip.....

....than your boy MITTENS!!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

was this before or after Obama has those divorce records unsealed?

 

[Zander]

I see a lot of medication being ingested in the future, by self delusional liberals who relied upon Nate Silver, Boy Genius!! He's a crackpot....

 

[Dr.House]

I see a lot of medication being ingested in the future, by self delusional liberals who relied upon Nate Silver, Boy Genius!! He's a crackpot....

The funny thing is they'll still love and praise him going forward no matter how off he is in his prediction...

teh funneh...