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[Inthemiddle]

I'm talking about on the No Toss Up map.

I think Colorado and Virginia are going to be too close to call on Election night. But Obama could lose both and still win.

Virginia won't got blue. It won't. I know this without question. They are close neighbors where I live. They won't go blue.

The only way that Obama could lose Colorado and win would be to win Ohio, and also turn Wisconsin into a win. The chances of Obama winning Wisconsin is very unlikely. Undecideds will break for Romney much more than they will Obama because of Ryan.

 

[JoeB131]

I'm talking about on the No Toss Up map.

I think Colorado and Virginia are going to be too close to call on Election night. But Obama could lose both and still win.

Virginia won't got blue. It won't. I know this without question. They are close neighbors where I live. They won't go blue.

The only way that Obama could lose Colorado and win would be to win Ohio, and also turn Wisconsin into a win. The chances of Obama winning Wisconsin is very unlikely. Undecideds will break for Romney much more than they will Obama because of Ryan.

Not one poll has Romney winning Wisconsin, and I don't think there are really that many indies to be had.

 

[Inthemiddle]

Not one poll has Romney winning Wisconsin

No, they all show very slight margins in favor of Obama. So slight, they are well within margin of error.

and I don't think there are really that many indies to be had.

Doesn't have to be many independents. Swing states aren't swing states because they have alot of independents. A state can be a swing state by having a mostly even balance of R and D with an active even if small group of independents. Or, it can have a predominantly centrist population of party affiliated voters who are willing to break partisan lines easily, depending on the particular candidates and the particular circumstances.

Wisconsin offers us a window that most other states don't. Just a few months ago Scott Walker won his recall election, and the rest of the recall affair was largely a failure for Democrats. This recent event shows us that Wisconsinites who are likely to get out to the polls are more favorable to the GOP cause in the state at the moment than they are of the Democrat cause. And having a local boy on the GOP Presidential ticket helps to solidify that.

 

[JoeB131]

Wisconsin offers us a window that most other states don't. Just a few months ago Scott Walker won his recall election, and the rest of the recall affair was largely a failure for Democrats. This recent event shows us that Wisconsinites who are likely to get out to the polls are more favorable to the GOP cause in the state at the moment than they are of the Democrat cause. And having a local boy on the GOP Presidential ticket helps to solidify that.

I think you are reading WAAAAY too much into the recall election.

Yeah there were people who voted because they liked Walker. And there were people who didn't like him that much, but realized he was doing things that needed to be done. And there were people who voted against the recall because they felt the Recall shouldn't be used for anything but eliminating officials who have committed crimes or such.

The unions were foolish to insist on the second batch of recalls when they came up empty on the first. But Wisconsin is still a mostly democratic state. Shit, they are about to send the first openly gay woman to the Senate.

 

[Inthemiddle]

Shit, they are about to send the first openly gay woman to the Senate.

See, you're presuming too much again. That race is a tie, and it could very likely motivate the conservative base to make sure to get out and vote against her. And while they're at it, they'll be making sure to vote against Obama as well.

 

[Zander]

Nate Silver Boy Genius!! now has Obama at 75% chance of winning!!! He can't lose!! He's a LOCK!!!
Woohoo!! FORWARD!! OBEY!!!


Reality? - Nate Silver's career is over. I hope he was amply compensated....

 

[deaddogseye]

I'm talking about on the No Toss Up map.

I think Colorado and Virginia are going to be too close to call on Election night. But Obama could lose both and still win.

Virginia won't got blue. It won't. I know this without question. They are close neighbors where I live. They won't go blue.

The only way that Obama could lose Colorado and win would be to win Ohio, and also turn Wisconsin into a win. The chances of Obama winning Wisconsin is very unlikely. Undecideds will break for Romney much more than they will Obama because of Ryan.

Actually undecideds typically break for the challenger regardless

Also i havent checked but if obama wins ohio he can win without colorado and wisconsin? I beleive if he gets florida, NC, VA ohio and NH that gets him 270. its a realistic scenario if you think he can win ohio

 

[Inthemiddle]

Actually undecideds typically break for the challenger regardless

No.

 

[courseofhistory]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

He's at 74.4 at the moment.

Princetion Election Consortium has him at 97%

 

[Zander]

Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro, Ahmadinejad and Al jazeera have Obama at 100%!!

 

[Zander]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

He's at 74.4 at the moment.

Princetion Election Consortium has him at 97%

Now seriously, do you actually believe Obama has a 74.4% chance of winning?

 

[JoeB131]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

He's at 74.4 at the moment.

Princetion Election Consortium has him at 97%

Now seriously, do you actually believe Obama has a 74.4% chance of winning?

Yeah, pretty much.

Because right now, he's got 281 EV's locked up and a good shot at another 22.

The Electoral College is not the GOP's friend here.

 

[jillian]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

He's at 74.4 at the moment.

Princetion Election Consortium has him at 97%

Now seriously, do you actually believe Obama has a 74.4% chance of winning?

given the electoral map? yes... with about a 25% chance of romney winning.

remember, 74.4% is not 100% and i doubt anyone rational says anything is 100%

 

[jillian]

Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro, Ahmadinejad and Al jazeera have Obama at 100%!!

if you want to be taken seriously, z, you really should stop that, hon.

 

[Zander]

Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro, Ahmadinejad and Al jazeera have Obama at 100%!!

if you want to be taken seriously, z, you really should stop that, hon.

Taken seriously? Like Nate Silver?

this thread belongs in the rubber room......

 

[freedombecki]

Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro, Ahmadinejad and Al jazeera have Obama at 100%!!

There's a mainstream media of denial out there, Mr. Zander, and it's not just a river with a delta. The nutcase denier polls? Well, you know how they are.

 

[candycorn]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

Romney has only been ahead electorally in RCP's average. This election has never been very close on electoral votes.

Silver's numbers reflect reality.

 

[candycorn]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

He's at 74.4 at the moment.

Princetion Election Consortium has him at 97%

Now seriously, do you actually believe Obama has a 74.4% chance of winning?

If you look at the electoral map, he has 100% chance of winning. But keep sticking to nationwide tracking polls...they're the VORP of political statistics.

 

[MarcATL]

What are the loons of the far right radical fringe, aka today's average Republican, going to do when Obama wins?

lol.

What. are. they. going. to. do?

 

[JimH52]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Over 80% in Wisconsin...