Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[Dr.House]

BTW -- intrade today has it at about 58% to 42% for Obama. more realistic assessment i think

Intrade had 0bamacare being defeated at 95% 2 hours before SCOTUS ruled...

Just sayin....

 

[Misty]

It's going to be a close one. Another nail biter.

I'm voting at least 3 times for Romney

 

[jillian]

I see a lot of medication being ingested in the future, by self delusional liberals who relied upon Nate Silver, Boy Genius!! He's a crackpot....

The funny thing is they'll still love and praise him going forward no matter how off he is in his prediction...

teh funneh...

and what should we follow, gomez, the blaze? fakenews?

come on, honey.. rcp just knocked romney back down to 191 electoral votes. you think the right-leaning real clear politics did that because he's winning?

reality: right now, at this second, it appears that mitt's bounce is done. right now, at this second, it seems obama is a couple of points ahead in ohio. but it can go either way... and anyone who says otherwise is silly.

 

[Inthemiddle]

RCP average is 2.1

Then again, RCP hand picks variant polls to average together to come to its results. Highly unreliable.

i wouldn't say it's higly unreliable. they're right-leaning, but i think they try. and i've always found it more valuable to take averages. historically, they've given a clearer picture than any one poll.

it does appear that when polling by the most respected pollster is consistently +5 then romney has a problem in ohio.

there are no more debates.
there are only ads and campaign stops and ground game. so the question becomes what changes the dynamic in the next 12 days?

I agree that the averages is probably valuable. It should just be consistent. If you hand pick results of different polls for different states, the results start to become skewed. Seems they do try to stay true to predict whether given states will go red or blue, but they take alot of liberties in demonstrating the strength or weakness of leads.

 

[Inthemiddle]

Nate is going to look and feel as stupid as you when The ONE loses huge.

Nobody is going to "lose huge." If every true swing state goes to Romney, he still only gains abotu 290 EC votes. The only way Obama loses "huge" would be for us to give Romney "swing" states that are almost certainly going to go to Obama. In short, Obama would have to lose very single state that isn't already considered to be a locked in blue.

 

[Inthemiddle]

I believe it was our pal Zander who noted yesterday that the lolberals here are engaging in some self-soothing.

That makes Nate whoeverthefuckheis a form of thumb sucking for libbies.

But reality intrudes, you poor things. The ONE is going to lose his bid for re-election. It's just that simple.

You better hope you're right. If Obama wins, you're going into my sig for sucking your thumb.

 

[Inthemiddle]

Take a look at this entire paragraph. Improper sentence structure, run on sentences.. Hell, my 1st grader can form better paragraphs! You're an attorney???????????? LMFAO God help your clients!

I think we need a change to the rules around here. If you invoke your own family members in an insult against another person, they should become fair game to attack back. Either that, or no using your own family members to insult other people.

 

[Dr.House]

I see a lot of medication being ingested in the future, by self delusional liberals who relied upon Nate Silver, Boy Genius!! He's a crackpot....

The funny thing is they'll still love and praise him going forward no matter how off he is in his prediction...

teh funneh...

and what should we follow, gomez, the blaze? fakenews?

I always do my own research from what's available and look at whatever internals they provide... Nothing that oversamples D's by +7 to +11 is anywhere near what the results will be on election night...

come on, honey.. rcp just knocked romney back down to 191 electoral votes. you think the right-leaning real clear politics did that because he's winning?

Skewed PPP poll (D+11) put Romney at +5 in NC... Cutoff for toss-up...

Pay attention to the causality... Means you have to dig a little...

reality: right now, at this second, it appears that mitt's bounce is done. right now, at this second, it seems obama is a couple of points ahead in ohio. but it can go either way... and anyone who says otherwise is silly.

I'd say that it's looking good for Romney right now... He's getting boatloads of money coming in while Barry is borrowing money... Romney is now putting resources into what was considered "safe" 0bama states... PA, MI, WI... A recent MI poll has him TIED there... DOH!

Any one of those goes Red and the game is over no matter what happens in OH...

I'm liking what I'm seeing...

 

[Inthemiddle]

71% huh??

Excuse me while I stand over here and LMAO.

I don't see that for either candidate.

Of course the NY Slimes will say Barry is gonna win big but anyone with a working brain cell knows he won't. Hell. I doubt he'll win at all.

My guess is that it's probably a meta probability calculation. He's probably starting from the point of view of noting each candidates locked in states, and then calculating the probability of each subsequent EC vote going to either candidate, with the result being that Obama gets to 270 before Romney does 71% of the time. The problem with that approach is that Obama is naturally going to win such an approach more often than Romney, because Obama currently has more locked in EC votes.

 

[Inthemiddle]

And the kids on Nickelodeon? They picked President Obama too...by a HUGE margin. They've gotten 5 out of the last 6 Presidents right.

^

Seabyscuit brings a rich new dimension to the meaning of the phrase, "clutching at straws."

Actually, there's a valid point to what she has said. There have been studies done regarding the uncanny ability for mock pollings of young children to predict election results. The theories that arise basically suggest that undecided voters, not having strong ideological or partisan drives behind most of their voting decisions, may unknowingly end up relying primarily on the same sub-conscious "likeability" factors that are likely to be driving children's decisions in the mock polls.

 

[MarcATL]

Ya....nice try...you know who he is and you know how accurate he is.

No, I actually don't nor do I care if he works for the NY Liberal Slimes.. that's all I need to know.


BTW- You liberal Zombies are becoming more desperate by the hour.. LOL it's amusing to watch. Thanks!

I'd love to know what has you so confident. I was listening to righty Hugh Hewitt a couple of days ago, and he was already taking victory laps, wondering if it will be a Romney landslide.

What is it about the numbers that makes you so sure? Intensity? I don't see how it could be anything else.

.

That's the same mistake many of us on the left made during Bush's 2nd run for Office. We just KNEW he was gonna lose. There was much intensity.

Actually, he stole the Office twice, but he got it done, by hook or by crook.

 

[JoeB131]

[

OMG you're a fucking moron about the video...it didnt cause shit.....it was released in July....
Wow libtards are dumber than I thought....I thought you guys could see through that one....but I guess you like it up the ass.....no other explanation

The video was released in July, but it didn't start getting play in the Islamic world until September.

So, no, the Video was a factor. All the groups who protested cited it as a complaint for their protests or attacks on western interests.

 

[aaronleland]

i wouldn't say it's higly unreliable. they're right-leaning, but i think they try. and i've always found it more valuable to take averages. historically, they've given a clearer picture than any one poll.

it does appear that when polling by the most respected pollster is consistently +5 then romney has a problem in ohio.

there are no more debates.
there are only ads and campaign stops and ground game. so the question becomes what changes the dynamic in the next 12 days?

Take a look at this entire paragraph. Improper sentence structure, run on sentences.. Hell, my 1st grader can form better paragraphs! You're an attorney???????????? LMFAO God help your clients!

The only thing improper about her paragraph is that she doesn't capitalize.

such a loon you are! How's your latest meltdown going?

But there ARE bayonets used in the military. THERE ARE! THERE ARE! THERE ARE!

 

[courseofhistory]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

Good and DeSart & Holbrook have him at an 87% chance of winning!

 

[Zander]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

Good and DeSart & Holbrook have him at an 87% chance of winning!

There are always people that are more extreme than the extremists......more leftwingnuttery...

 

[blackhawk]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

He is a liberal blogger who used to do baseball stats moved into politics writing for the hyper liberal Daily Kos and now has his blog on the N.Y. Times and is now pretty much the only place the left can go to find someone to carry Obama's water poll wise.

 

[deaddogseye]

BTW -- intrade today has it at about 58% to 42% for Obama. more realistic assessment i think

Intrade had 0bamacare being defeated at 95% 2 hours before SCOTUS ruled...

Just sayin....

i didnt know that and fair enough but im not sure what type of comparison it is. there is no impirical data on a supreme court vote so even if intrade is setting the line based on betting activity like pari mutual betting even the underl;ying betting which sets the odds in the case of the supreme court is based on nothing. here there is all sorts of impirical data. so i think its a VERY different comparison but as i said, fair enough

 

[JoeB131]

Ooooops. RCP has Colorado back in Obama's column.

 

[Inthemiddle]

Ooooops. RCP has Colorado back in Obama's column.

???

Still labeled as a toss-up from what I can see.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

 

[JoeB131]

Ooooops. RCP has Colorado back in Obama's column.

???

Still labeled as a toss-up from what I can see.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

I'm talking about on the No Toss Up map.

I think Colorado and Virginia are going to be too close to call on Election night. But Obama could lose both and still win.