candycorn
Diamond Member
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Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here
- Thread starter Article 15
- Start date
Sweet! The firewall is holding.
Procrustes Stretched
“Yesterday When I Was Young”
If the President were to lose Minnesota and gain Virginia...lose Colorado and keep Ohio while gaining NH... I need to go back to Cassidy's map
October 28, 2012
Cassidys Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio?
Posted by John Cassidy
Read more Cassidy's Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio? : The New Yorker
At the local level, some of the battlegrounds have now broken firmly in one direction or another, effectively narrowing the race to eight states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Wisconsin. On The New Yorkers electoral map, I am making three changes to reflect this. I am changing Michigan and Pennsylvania from leaning Obama to firm Obama, and I am changing North Carolina from leaning Romney to firm Romney. In all three of these states, the polls indicate that one of the candidates is now ahead by four points or more.
Of the remaining eight battlegrounds, I have one state leaning to Romney (Florida); four leaning to Obama (Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin); and three as toss-ups (Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia). I considered moving Virginia to Romneys column, but decided against it. In the past few days, two polls have shown the race tied. And both of them have come from polling organizations that tend to lean a bit to the Republicans: Gravis Marketing and Purple Strategies. For Romney to reach two hundred and seventy electoral-college votes, he simply has to carry Virginia, as well as Florida and North Carolina. The fact that the race is still so tight there will be a big concern to Boston.
In the electoral college, I still have Obama with 277 votes and Romney with 235. Assuming the G.O.P. man does win Virginia, that takes him to 248, leaving him needing another 22 votes. Thatss where the fun starts.
Read more Cassidy's Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio? : The New Yorker
Last edited:
Sherry
You're not the boss of me
Well this dude clearly has his finger on the pulse of his limp wrist.
Procrustes Stretched
“Yesterday When I Was Young”
If the President were to lose Minnesota and gain Virginia...lose Colorado and keep Ohio while gaining NH... I need to go back to Cassidy's map
October 28, 2012
Cassidys Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio?
Posted by John Cassidy
Read more Cassidy's Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio? : The New Yorker
At the local level, some of the battlegrounds have now broken firmly in one direction or another, effectively narrowing the race to eight states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Wisconsin. On The New Yorkers electoral map, I am making three changes to reflect this. I am changing Michigan and Pennsylvania from leaning Obama to firm Obama, and I am changing North Carolina from leaning Romney to firm Romney. In all three of these states, the polls indicate that one of the candidates is now ahead by four points or more.
Of the remaining eight battlegrounds, I have one state leaning to Romney (Florida); four leaning to Obama (Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin); and three as toss-ups (Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia). I considered moving Virginia to Romneys column, but decided against it. In the past few days, two polls have shown the race tied. And both of them have come from polling organizations that tend to lean a bit to the Republicans: Gravis Marketing and Purple Strategies. For Romney to reach two hundred and seventy electoral-college votes, he simply has to carry Virginia, as well as Florida and North Carolina. The fact that the race is still so tight there will be a big concern to Boston.
In the electoral college, I still have Obama with 277 votes and Romney with 235. Assuming the G.O.P. man does win Virginia, that takes him to 248, leaving him needing another 22 votes. Thatss where the fun starts.
Read more Cassidy's Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio? : The New Yorker
Ahem........................
If Romney were to carry the state, he would need just four more votes. Winning New Hampshire, which has exactly four votes, or any of the other battlegrounds, would put him across the line. But increasingly, it is looking like Obama will hold onto Ohio. On Friday, three new polls were published, and they all showed the President ahead. American Research Group and Purple Strategies both put his lead at two points; CNN/Opinion Research put it at four points: 50-46. Sources tell me that the two campaigns internal polling also have Obama ahead, with Romneys vote seemingly stalled in the mid-to-high forties.
Read more Cassidy's Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio? : The New Yorker
Procrustes Stretched
“Yesterday When I Was Young”
Nate Silver might just win this year's award for Chief Dim Bulb.
nah, that would be these two guys...
mamooth
Diamond Member
Latest PPP poll has Obama +1 in Florida. Romney is crumbling all over.
Latest PPP poll has Obama +1 in Florida. Romney is crumbling all over.
PPP? Rly?
Procrustes Stretched
“Yesterday When I Was Young”
thank you for your service Jim.
AceRothstein
Gold Member
- Sep 8, 2012
- 5,978
- 1,441
- 245
Latest PPP poll has Obama +1 in Florida. Romney is crumbling all over.
PPP? Rly?
You should take a look at 2008 state polling results, they were much more accurate than Rasmussen's state polling.
Dr.House
Lives on in syndication!
Please, PLEASE... Keep hanging your liberal hats on Nate Silver....
It will make you look that much more stupid on election day...
It will make you look that much more stupid on election day...
Liability
Locked Account.
and still dropping ....
The incumbent is going to lose. Period.
Procrustes Stretched
“Yesterday When I Was Young”
Please, PLEASE... Keep hanging your liberal hats on Nate Silver....
It will make you look that much more stupid on election day...
Procrustes Stretched
“Yesterday When I Was Young”
and still dropping ....
The incumbent is going to lose. Period.
Cassidy's Count has been posted along with Nate
Sources tell me that the two campaigns internal polling also have Obama ahead, with Romneys vote seemingly stalled in the mid-to-high forties.
Read more Cassidy's Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio? : The New Yorker
failure
Procrustes Stretched
“Yesterday When I Was Young”
Please, PLEASE... Keep hanging your liberal hats on Nate Silver....
It will make you look that much more stupid on election day...
neg rep from ya?
unrequited love. I told ya, no is no. What part of 'no' do you not understand .. the 'n' or the 'o'?
jillian
Princess
it went up to 60% in Virginia
Dr.House
Lives on in syndication!
Procrustes Stretched
“Yesterday When I Was Young”
Dr.House
Lives on in syndication!
Nate Silver is partisan and wrong. The voters will decide Romney v Obama, not The New York Times – Telegraph Blogs
1. Nate isn’t very good at calling close elections.
2. People make their minds up at the last minute, which confuses the outcome of close elections.
3. Nate weights polls, meaning that he picks and chooses which data sets to run through his model.
4. Nate ignores polls that contradict him. So PPP is right and Gallup is wrong.
5. Politics is even riskier than baseball and “stuff happens.”
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