NY Times says Trump will win nomination outright

[jillian]

Again, I haven't met that person yet, and I don't think they exist.

Mostly, what I see here are about half the people who've been on here hating on Obama for the last 5 years I've been here, are supporting Trump and half of them are dead set against him. But I haven't seen anyone IRL or here who supported Obama in 08 or 12 who is now supporting Trump.

Now, here's the thing. There are a few good things Trump is for. He's finally calling bullshit on Free Trade, and he's one of the few on the GOP side who had the balls to call the Iraq War a really, really, really stupid idea. And Hitler had this really neat idea for something called an Autobahn...

But frankly, his racism and misogyny pretty much outweigh those few merits.

You see, the thing is, the GOP has spent 40 years stirring up white male resentment about a changing America. They wrapped those things up in nice sounding labels like "National Security" and "Traditional Values" and "Liberty and Freedom".

Trump has dispensed with all the packaging, and he's just selling the raw product. He doesn''t give a flip about Israel or Abortion or Gay Marriage or tax cuts or any of that shit. He's just selling, "if you're angry and you're white, follow me", when he isn't retweeting the deep thoughts of white supremists and other highly evolved sociopaths.

YOu admit that Trump has good ideas on Trade and Foreign Policy.

This is why, IMO, he can attract working class white democrats.

The rest of your post is delusional nonsense.

The economist magazine said that trump being elected would be as catastrophic to the global economy as another 9/11 type terrorist attack

Dumbasses

I am well aware of the Free Trade ideology.

I used to be a Free Trader.

That is why I can see that events in the REal World are NOT following what that economic Theory predicted.

The Displaced Workers were NOT supposed to be negatively effected PERMANENTLY like we are seeing.

Wages for American workers were NOT supposed to be PERMANENTLY suppressed.

Yet that is what is happening.

It took me quite a while to come to grips with the failure of my ideological expectations.

But I have.

Many people obviously have not.

DId the Economist magazine you read address the fact of Working retraining and reallocation NOT following their economic model?

by "free trade" you mean laissez faire capitalism and even adam smith knew it failed.

but no matter how many times your people break things, people like you, deluded into voting against their own economic interest, still spout lies and distortions and wish to revive long failed policies.

no thanks. normal people don't choose to live in a Dickensian nightmare.

Mmm, the economists you were citing were supporting the Status Quo of "Free Trade".

The other republican candidates, and Hillary are supporting the Status Quo of "Free Trade".

Trump and his supporters are the ones running against the Status Quo of "Free Trade".

And imo, that is why Trump can attract Working CLass white Democrats, who have been serious harmed by "Free Trade", especially in the Rust Belt.

no. the economists i'm citing actually are economists

anyone with half a brain can see what you advocate has repeatedly failed.

but keep bowing and scraping to the white supremacist.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The the great majority of the establishment and mainstream don't care about winning if it is Trump.

They will win if Trump loses. On this point, albeit for the wrong reasons, Rush is correct.

I was actually referring to the future.

If you alienate those you call the "far right" enough, you will destroy the GOP forever.

You Establishment Republicans cannot win without us.

Of course we can, once we expel your nonsensical principles and positions. We will be competitive nationally in four years without you, and we will offer a far superior product to you and the Dems. We will be fine in the mainstream GOP.

THe various numbers you like to use against Trump, with minorities, are WORSE for the GOP, if you lose start losing conservative whites ALSO.

We won't need you after the election (and Trump won't win either without us), so we will rebuild and rebrand the party a a modern 21st century American party looking to the future not the past.

 

[Correll]

YOu admit that Trump has good ideas on Trade and Foreign Policy.

This is why, IMO, he can attract working class white democrats.

The rest of your post is delusional nonsense.

The economist magazine said that trump being elected would be as catastrophic to the global economy as another 9/11 type terrorist attack

Dumbasses

I am well aware of the Free Trade ideology.

I used to be a Free Trader.

That is why I can see that events in the REal World are NOT following what that economic Theory predicted.

The Displaced Workers were NOT supposed to be negatively effected PERMANENTLY like we are seeing.

Wages for American workers were NOT supposed to be PERMANENTLY suppressed.

Yet that is what is happening.

It took me quite a while to come to grips with the failure of my ideological expectations.

But I have.

Many people obviously have not.

DId the Economist magazine you read address the fact of Working retraining and reallocation NOT following their economic model?

by "free trade" you mean laissez faire capitalism and even adam smith knew it failed.

but no matter how many times your people break things, people like you, deluded into voting against their own economic interest, still spout lies and distortions and wish to revive long failed policies.

no thanks. normal people don't choose to live in a Dickensian nightmare.

Mmm, the economists you were citing were supporting the Status Quo of "Free Trade".

The other republican candidates, and Hillary are supporting the Status Quo of "Free Trade".

Trump and his supporters are the ones running against the Status Quo of "Free Trade".

And imo, that is why Trump can attract Working CLass white Democrats, who have been serious harmed by "Free Trade", especially in the Rust Belt.

no. the economists i'm citing actually are economists

anyone with half a brain can see what you advocate has repeatedly failed.

but keep bowing and scraping to the white supremacist.

And those economists have only recently admitted that the reallocation of labor is NOT going according to plan.

They have not yet explained why that is, nor have they come up with a solution, last time I looked.

My point stands. YOu have done nothing to challenge it other than to restate your position and to personally attack me.


Trump can attract Working CLass white Democrats, who have been serious harmed by "Free Trade", especially in the Rust Belt.

There is no reason that we cannot bring some of those manufacturing jobs back to America.

If you don't like Trump's plan for doing that, maybe you should consider that it is the ONLY plan being offered to do that, and suggest a better one.

Because all the other candidates are Status Quo on this issue.

A Status Quo that is not in America's nor Americans' interests.

Oh, and btw,

 

[JakeStarkey]

All correll has done is stand by and reassert his feeling that Trump can attract working class white Democrats.

There is no quantitative evidence that is happening.

 

[tinydancer]

All correll has done is stand by and reassert his feeling that Trump can attract working class white Democrats.

There is no quantitative evidence that is happening.

Monday, Apr 25, 2016 5:47 PM UTC
Bad news for Hillary and Democrats: Donald Trump is coaxing tens of thousands of Pennsylvania Dems to switch parties
According to the Duluth News Tribune, an unprecedented number of Pennsylvanians have switched their parties
Brendan Gauthier

Bad news for Hillary and Democrats: Donald Trump is coaxing tens of thousands of Pennsylvania Dems to switch parties

 

[Correll]

The the great majority of the establishment and mainstream don't care about winning if it is Trump.

They will win if Trump loses. On this point, albeit for the wrong reasons, Rush is correct.

I was actually referring to the future.

If you alienate those you call the "far right" enough, you will destroy the GOP forever.

You Establishment Republicans cannot win without us.

Of course we can, once we expel your nonsensical principles and positions. We will be competitive nationally in four years without you, and we will offer a far superior product to you and the Dems. We will be fine in the mainstream GOP.

THe various numbers you like to use against Trump, with minorities, are WORSE for the GOP, if you lose start losing conservative whites ALSO.

We won't need you after the election (and Trump won't win either without us), so we will rebuild and rebrand the party a a modern 21st century American party looking to the future not the past.

You are living in a fantasy land.

According to the LEft, which dominates both the Media/pop culture AND the world view presented for minority demographics, you "moderates" are just as "racist" as the "Far Right".

Ask them. They will tell you that the alleged "Southern Strategy" has been used by the GOP in EVERY election since Nixon, including those by your precious "moderates", such as McCain.

They will tell you, and ARE telling younger fools who listen to them, and minority demographics, that the difference between the "racism" of Trump and the Mainstream GOP is one of levels of blatant-ness, not racist vs non--racist.


And you, and your with you support of the Left's campaign of marginalizing Trump and Trump supporters are VALIDATING this Lie.


The actions of the Leadership is not leading to a rebirth, but a death.

 

[Correll]

All correll has done is stand by and reassert his feeling that Trump can attract working class white Democrats.

There is no quantitative evidence that is happening.

I have explained my reasoning repeatedly and none of you liberals have been able to point out any flaws in it.


I have also offered anecdotal reports from one family member who lives in a Democratic Stronghold, and indeed, I had recently heard ANOTHER such report from a buddy of mine, who lives in a different Democratic Stronghold.



And there is this poll.


Trump Could Win It All


"The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans.

When the firmed showed respondents the Trump ad, and assessed their responses to each moment of it, it found "the primary messages of Trump's ad resonated more than Democratic elites would hope."
About 25 percent of Democrats "agree completely" that it raises some good point, with an additional 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat."
Mercury CEO Ron Howard, a Democrat whose firm works for candidates in both parties and corporate clients, concedes, "We expected Trump's first campaign spot to strongly appeal to Republican Trump supporters, with little impact – or in fact negative impact – on Democratic or independent voters."
He continues, "The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds."

 

[Correll]

All correll has done is stand by and reassert his feeling that Trump can attract working class white Democrats.

There is no quantitative evidence that is happening.

Monday, Apr 25, 2016 5:47 PM UTC
Bad news for Hillary and Democrats: Donald Trump is coaxing tens of thousands of Pennsylvania Dems to switch parties
According to the Duluth News Tribune, an unprecedented number of Pennsylvanians have switched their parties
Brendan Gauthier

Bad news for Hillary and Democrats: Donald Trump is coaxing tens of thousands of Pennsylvania Dems to switch parties

Lefties don't bother reading information they fear might disagree with them or their viewpoints.

You have to paste it for them to see it.








"Short of unifying his own party, Donald Trump has somehow managed to blur partisan lines in Pennsylvania with his paper-thin policy platforms.





An unprecedented number of Pennsylvanians have switched their party affiliation from Democrat to Republican ahead of Tuesday’s primary in order to vote Trump, according to a Duluth News Tribune report.




The report said that “61,500 Democrats have become Republicans so far this year, part of a 145,000 jump in Republican registrations since the fall 2015 election.”





Many of these voters crossing party lines are working-class, middle-aged and “feel Trump is sticking it to the man.” They feel the Democratic party has prioritized the wants of more lucrative voting blocs, like youths, minorities and yuppies. For this reason, they find Trump’s political incorrectness refreshing."

 

[JakeStarkey]

Correll's "reasoning" is merely his feelz, nothing more.

And he fails to tell you the truth that the majority of Dem moving into GOP registration is to make sure Trump is the GOP candidate so they can vote against him. These Dems are successfully weakening the GOP ticket.

 

[Correll]

Correll's "reasoning" is merely his feelz, nothing more.

And he fails to tell you the truth that the majority of Dem moving into GOP registration is to make sure Trump is the GOP candidate so they can vote against him. These Dems are successfully weakening the GOP ticket.

A moment ago you were denying that Trump was attracting dem voters.

I posted a link showing that Trump WAS indeed attracting dem voters.


Now you claim that the majority of those dems are doing it to weaken the GOP ticket.


Can you support that claim?

Link please.

 

[tinydancer]

Correll's "reasoning" is merely his feelz, nothing more.

And he fails to tell you the truth that the majority of Dem moving into GOP registration is to make sure Trump is the GOP candidate so they can vote against him. These Dems are successfully weakening the GOP ticket.

Jake read the article. Center D's have switched to R's because the left has hijacked the party. Middle aged and middle class Democrats feel that the party has left them.

 

[Correll]

Correll's "reasoning" is merely his feelz, nothing more.

And he fails to tell you the truth that the majority of Dem moving into GOP registration is to make sure Trump is the GOP candidate so they can vote against him. These Dems are successfully weakening the GOP ticket.

Jake read the article. Center D's have switched to R's because the left has hijacked the party. Middle aged and middle class Democrats feel that the party has left them.

Because they have.

Hell a day or two ago, Joe was denying that middle class and working class whites were voting for the dems.

He was slamming them in very racist terms, for voting Republicans.

It is hard to be LESS appreciated than to have your fellow democrats not even be aware that you have been a loyal democrat for GENERATIONS and to make racist attacks on your for stuff other people did.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Correll's "reasoning" is merely his feelz, nothing more.

And he fails to tell you the truth that the majority of Dem moving into GOP registration is to make sure Trump is the GOP candidate so they can vote against him. These Dems are successfully weakening the GOP ticket.

A moment ago you were denying that Trump was attracting dem voters. I posted a link showing that Trump WAS indeed attracting dem voters. Now you claim that the majority of those dems are doing it to weaken the GOP ticket.
Can you support that claim? Link please.

I gave Correll the reason why the Dems were voting for Trump: to ensure his defeat.

Here is a link:
Survey of Dems in early primary states shows they...
www.salon.com/2015/12/04/survey_of_dems_in...theyre...trump
Dec 03, 2015 · Survey of Dems in early primary states shows they’re ... say Trump “would bethe easiest of the ... SALON ® is registered in the U.S ...

The operation chaos crossover is to ensure Trump is the candidate, the easiest one to beat.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Correll's "reasoning" is merely his feelz, nothing more.

And he fails to tell you the truth that the majority of Dem moving into GOP registration is to make sure Trump is the GOP candidate so they can vote against him. These Dems are successfully weakening the GOP ticket.

Jake read the article. Center D's have switched to R's because the left has hijacked the party. Middle aged and middle class Democrats feel that the party has left them.

The survey was 4 months ago, and it was a Mercury Analytics one to boot. It targets audiences and part of it is online. Nothing in the last 4 months suggests that its conclusions are right correct.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Those like Correll and tinydancer are ensuring HRC's election.

 

[Correll]

Correll's "reasoning" is merely his feelz, nothing more.

And he fails to tell you the truth that the majority of Dem moving into GOP registration is to make sure Trump is the GOP candidate so they can vote against him. These Dems are successfully weakening the GOP ticket.

A moment ago you were denying that Trump was attracting dem voters. I posted a link showing that Trump WAS indeed attracting dem voters. Now you claim that the majority of those dems are doing it to weaken the GOP ticket.
Can you support that claim? Link please.

I gave Correll the reason why the Dems were voting for Trump: to ensure his defeat.

Here is a link:
Survey of Dems in early primary states shows they...
www.salon.com/2015/12/04/survey_of_dems_in...theyre...trump
Dec 03, 2015 · Survey of Dems in early primary states shows they’re ... say Trump “would bethe easiest of the ... SALON ® is registered in the U.S ...

The operation chaos crossover is to ensure Trump is the candidate, the easiest one to beat.

That is a survey from 5 months ago that is does not support your claim that the majority of dem voters crossing party lines and voting for Trump are doing so to weaken the GOP ticket.

 

[Correll]

Correll's "reasoning" is merely his feelz, nothing more.

And he fails to tell you the truth that the majority of Dem moving into GOP registration is to make sure Trump is the GOP candidate so they can vote against him. These Dems are successfully weakening the GOP ticket.

Jake read the article. Center D's have switched to R's because the left has hijacked the party. Middle aged and middle class Democrats feel that the party has left them.

The survey was 4 months ago, and it was a Mercury Analytics one to boot. It targets audiences and part of it is online. Nothing in the last 4 months suggests that its conclusions are right correct.

No, YOUR survey was from December.

Tinydancer's was from late April, based on this.

More than 60,000 disgruntled Pennsylvania Democrats switch p...


“We always voted Democrat,” said Laurie McGinnis, as her husband Ricky hung a Trump banner outside their South Greensburg home. “But not any more.”

Some of these newly minted Pennsylvania Republicans are formalizing a process that began with Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, when conservative-leaning Democrats began shifting away from the party in the faded industrial state.

Others moved abruptly, inspired by Trump and fed up with a party they say no longer speaks their language.

Together the result is one of the most sizable shifts of partisan allegiance ever in Pennsylvania: 61,500 Democrats have become Republicans so far this year, part of a 145,000 jump in Republican registrations since the fall 2015 election, according to state figures analyzed by both parties. It’s more new Republicans than in the previous four years combined.

The onslaught has helped make Trump the favorite heading into Tuesday’s primary, helping put Pennsylvania, which voted for Obama twice, in play in the November presidential election.
....”

 

[JakeStarkey]

Any polling done by Mercury Analytics can be ignored.

Anecdotal evidence as to why people cross over must include people crossing to make sure Donald is the candidate so that HRC can be the president.

Hint for the both of you. Look up the total GOP primary voting for 2000 and 2004 and 2008 and 2012 and 2016.

Tell us which direction are the numbers going, up or down.

 

[Correll]

Any polling done by Mercury Analytics can be ignored.

Anecdotal evidence as to why people cross over must include people crossing to make sure Donald is the candidate so that HRC can be the president.

Hint for the both of you. Look up the total GOP primary voting for 2000 and 2004 and 2008 and 2012 and 2016.

Tell us which direction are the numbers going, up or down.

So,

1. You dismiss polling you don't like. Without explanation or a countering link.

2. Suggest that there is anecdotal evidence out that to counter the anecdotal evidence I presented. You don't provide it, you just suggest that it probably exists and thus has to be considered..

Interestingly I agree, despite you complete lack of support for your own position. Those dems who are likely Trump has to be considered in the context of those republicans who say they will vote for Hillary.

3. And then you suggest that we do the work of supporting your position by looking up numbers.





My point is still standing. Trump and his issues can appeal to Working Class and Middle Class white dems.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I dismiss polling done online, yes, because it so skewed that reliable predictions are not possible.

Thank you on showing your confused on anecdotal evidence.

There is no avowed crossover for Trump based on Hillary hate as there is cross over for HRC based on Trump hate.

This may help, from NYT.

Monday, April 11, 2016

Members of the establishment in both major political parties worry that supporters of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders will not align with the party’s eventual nominee if their guy isn't chosen, but that appears to be a much more serious problem for Republicans than for Democrats.

One-in-four Likely Republican Voters (25%) say they are more likely to vote for someone else or not vote at all if Trump does not win the Republican nomination and chooses not to run as an independent, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This includes 12% who are more likely to opt for another candidate and 13% who are inclined to stay at home. Another eight percent (8%) say they will more likely vote for the Democratic nominee instead.

Just 62% of Republicans say they are more likely to vote for the Republican nominee if it isn't Trump. By comparison, 80% of Democrats say they are more likely to vote for their party's nominee if it isn't Sanders and he chooses not to run as a third-party candidate. Nine percent (9%) are more likely to choose the Republican candidate, while six percent (6%) lean toward voting for someone else. Only two percent (2%) are more likely not vote at all. (To see survey question wording, click here.)