Obama's approval numbers slip back to the low 40's

[Toro]

FTR Even though GStarz is a nutter that doesn't mean he is necessarily wrong about Obama's approval rating. Liberals who dismiss Rasmussen out of hand because they are Rasmussen are no better than conservatives who believe the firm over all others.

What do you think of the work of Nate Silver?

Really good. I linked to him earlier in this thread.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Is Gstarz a Tea Party Samurai clone?

Cloning is inbreeding perfected, so, yeah, that's a good bet.

 

[GStarz]

No, Toro/Skippy just flew from the debate and then stared prancing around like a globetrotting, too-cool gambler offering to bet $10,000.00 on Obama in 2012 - betting $10,000.00 anonymously on a message board. Instead of debating the facts. What an asshole. You too, Maggie.

I gave you a chance to take money from me. Then I showed you a way to profit if you didn't want to deal with me. I even suggested it would be better if you didn't deal with me. Yet, rather than man up, all you do is bitch and complain.

You're all hat and no cattle.

Okay, I take no responsibility, at your own risk, what's your real name, address, e-mail me the info to the account holding the wager funds and tell me who the third party arbiter is with that person's business contact information, and I may think about it. You really believe you're living in the real world with this shit, don't you? Seriously, what an asshole.

Get lost.

 

[Toro]

No, Toro/Skippy just flew from the debate and then stared prancing around like a globetrotting, too-cool gambler offering to bet $10,000.00 on Obama in 2012 - betting $10,000.00 anonymously on a message board. Instead of debating the facts. What an asshole. You too, Maggie.

I gave you a chance to take money from me. Then I showed you a way to profit if you didn't want to deal with me. I even suggested it would be better if you didn't deal with me. Yet, rather than man up, all you do is bitch and complain.

You're all hat and no cattle.

Okay, I take no responsibility, at your own risk, what's your real name, address, e-mail me the info to the account holding the wager funds and tell me who the third party arbiter is with that personal;a business contact information. You really believe you're living in the real world with this shit, don't you? Seriously, what an asshole.

Get lost.

This is how it works. You've got a lawyer. I've got a lawyer. We draw up a contract stating the terms of the events that must happen, which in this case is that Obama will withdraw from the nomination and cite his birth certificate as the reason, or even one of the reasons. We each contribute $10,000 into the trust. If Obama does not run because of his birth certificate, the $20,000 (less trust and admin expenses) gets released to you. If he does, it gets released to me. I'm not telling you who I am until we are ready to wire in the money but I can send you a contact who can arrange this anonymously.

Or ...

I'm happy to take your money, but if you don't want to deal with all this and with me, go sell the Intrade contract I mentioned earlier. It is much less hassle and your odds are way better. You can bet $100 instead of $10,000 if you want. It's easy.

 

[GStarz]

I gave you a chance to take money from me. Then I showed you a way to profit if you didn't want to deal with me. I even suggested it would be better if you didn't deal with me. Yet, rather than man up, all you do is bitch and complain.

You're all hat and no cattle.

Okay, I take no responsibility, at your own risk, what's your real name, address, e-mail me the info to the account holding the wager funds and tell me who the third party arbiter is with that personal;a business contact information. You really believe you're living in the real world with this shit, don't you? Seriously, what an asshole.

Get lost.

This is how it works. You've got a lawyer. I've got a lawyer. We draw up a contract stating the terms of the events that must happen, which in this case is that Obama will withdraw from the nomination and cite his birth certificate as the reason, or even one of the reasons. We each contribute $10,000 into the trust. If Obama does not run because of his birth certificate, the $20,000 (less trust and admin expenses) gets released to you. If he does, it gets released to me. I'm not telling you who I am until we are ready to wire in the money but I can send you a contact who can arrange this anonymously.

Or ...

I'm happy to take your money, but if you don't want to deal with all this and with me, go sell the Intrade contract I mentioned earlier. It is much less hassle and your odds are way better. You can bet $100 instead of $10,000 if you want. It's easy.

Then how does my lawyer get your lawyers info? You are so full of smarmy shit it's ridiculous. get off your older brother's computer, kid.

But by all means, keep trying to keep the discussion off Obama's poll numbers. That's what ACORN pays you for.

TORO = LOSER

 

[Toro]

Then how does my lawyer get your lawyers info? You are so full of smarmy shit it's ridiculous. get off your older brother's computer, kid.

But by all means, keep trying to keep the discussion off Obama's poll numbers. That's what ACORN pays you for.

TORO = LOSER

We can get someone anonymously. You give that person your lawyer's info and I'll do the same. The lawyers can then negotiate between themselves. When they have an agreement, we both sign the contract and wire the money into the trust.

As for Obama, I have made no claims that Obama's polling numbers weren't low. I haven't challenged your OP. You may be correct. In fact, I defended Rasmussen earlier saying liberals shouldn't dismiss the firm simply because its Rasmussen. And I make no prediction about who will win in 2012. What I have challenged is your insistence that Obama won't be on the ballot because of this birfer nonsense, which you brought up, not me. It is you who deflected away from the polling numbers, not I.

And an ACORN agent? I've been accused of being a government paid disinformation agent by the 9/11 twoofers, but never as a paid ACORN agent before. This just confirms to me that you're as nutty as the twoofers.

 

[GStarz]

Then how does my lawyer get your lawyers info? You are so full of smarmy shit it's ridiculous. get off your older brother's computer, kid.

But by all means, keep trying to keep the discussion off Obama's poll numbers. That's what ACORN pays you for.

TORO = LOSER

We can get someone anonymously. You give that person your lawyer's info and I'll do the same. The lawyers can then negotiate between themselves. When they have an agreement, we both sign the contract and wire the money into the trust.

As for Obama, I have made no claims that Obama's polling numbers weren't low. I haven't challenged your OP. You may be correct. In fact, I defended Rasmussen earlier saying liberals shouldn't dismiss the firm simply because its Rasmussen. And I make no prediction about who will win in 2012. What I have challenged is your insistence that Obama won't be on the ballot because of this birfer nonsense, which you brought up, not me. It is you who deflected away from the polling numbers, not I.

And an ACORN agent? I've been accused of being a government paid disinformation agent by the 9/11 twoofers, but never as a paid ACORN agent before. This just confirms to me that you're as nutty as the twoofers.

I didn't realize you were such an endless bullshit time-waster when i first engaged you. Lawyers, $10,000.00 wagers on a message board, AND you never answered the question that stared all this bullshit from you. It;s endless with you, I have things to do rather than entertain your Riviera gambler fucked up fantasy world. Get lost.

TORO = LOSER

Done.

 

[Toro]

Then how does my lawyer get your lawyers info? You are so full of smarmy shit it's ridiculous. get off your older brother's computer, kid.

But by all means, keep trying to keep the discussion off Obama's poll numbers. That's what ACORN pays you for.

TORO = LOSER

We can get someone anonymously. You give that person your lawyer's info and I'll do the same. The lawyers can then negotiate between themselves. When they have an agreement, we both sign the contract and wire the money into the trust.

As for Obama, I have made no claims that Obama's polling numbers weren't low. I haven't challenged your OP. You may be correct. In fact, I defended Rasmussen earlier saying liberals shouldn't dismiss the firm simply because its Rasmussen. And I make no prediction about who will win in 2012. What I have challenged is your insistence that Obama won't be on the ballot because of this birfer nonsense, which you brought up, not me. It is you who deflected away from the polling numbers, not I.

And an ACORN agent? I've been accused of being a government paid disinformation agent by the 9/11 twoofers, but never as a paid ACORN agent before. This just confirms to me that you're as nutty as the twoofers.

I didn't realize you were such an endless bullshit time-waster when i first engaged you. Lawyers, $10,000.00 wagers on a message board, AND you never answered the question that stared all this bullshit from you. It;s endless with you, I have things to do rather than entertain your Riviera gambler fucked up fantasy world. Get lost.

TORO = LOSER

Done.

No, you started this, Skippy, when you stated that it was a done deal that Obama wasn't going to run because of his birth certificate nonsense, which had nothing to do with your poll. I just challenged you on it. If its a certainty, as you claim, why wouldn't you profit from it? I was even so generous to show you a way to massively profit from it with little risk, and without having to deal with the likes of me. I'm not a gambler, Skippy, I'm a trader. And I know a good trade when I see it. Too bad you don't.

 

[EriktheRed]

FTR Even though GStarz is a nutter that doesn't mean he is necessarily wrong about Obama's approval rating. Liberals who dismiss Rasmussen out of hand because they are Rasmussen are no better than conservatives who believe the firm over all others.

What do you think of the work of Nate Silver?

Really good. I linked to him earlier in this thread.

Nate Silver has also documented well why Rasmussen isn't reliable anymore, which is I myself will dismiss them "out of hand".

 

[GStarz]

What do you think of the work of Nate Silver?

Really good. I linked to him earlier in this thread.

Nate Silver has also documented well why Rasmussen isn't reliable anymore, which is I myself will dismiss them "out of hand".

One guy - someone named Nate Silver - against all those other people. of course you dismiss rasmussen. you're a liberal. You'll say anything to dismiss the opposition. But rasmussen is hugely respected on the right and the left by people higher placed than you. These numbers matter. Obama is going down in the polls, to his worst level ever. Sorry. If it's rasmussen or you, or someone named "Nate Silver", whoever the hell that is - I choose Rasmussen. And so do more people by many thousands of times over than your or good old Nate. Obama's tanking. That's life.

 

[Toro]

What do you think of the work of Nate Silver?

Really good. I linked to him earlier in this thread.

Nate Silver has also documented well why Rasmussen isn't reliable anymore, which is I myself will dismiss them "out of hand".

Here's what Silver said

While waiting for the remaining results to trickle in from states like Colorado and Alaska, I did a quick check on the accuracy of polls from the firm Rasmussen Reports, which came under heavy criticism this year — including from FiveThirtyEight — because its polls showed a strong lean toward Republican candidates.

Indeed, Rasmussen polls quite consistently turned out to overstate the standing of Republicans tonight. Of the roughly 100 polls released by Rasmussen or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research in the final 21 days of the campaign, roughly 70 to 75 percent overestimated the performance of Republican candidates, and on average they were biased against Democrats by 3 to 4 points.

Every pollster is entitled to a bad cycle now and again — and Rasmussen has had some good cycles in the past. But their polling took a major downturn this year.

Live Blogging Election Night - NYTimes.com

Has he said anything else? If so, could you link it?

My impression of Rasmussen is that they are a professional pollster first and foremost. They may be conservative, but it does them no good to be seen as having biased work. Why would you hire them if they are flawed? Generally, people hire pollsters to have an accurate understanding of whatever issue they wish to address, not to pay a lot of money to yes-men. But if I'm wrong, please show me.

 

[EriktheRed]

Really good. I linked to him earlier in this thread.

Nate Silver has also documented well why Rasmussen isn't reliable anymore, which is I myself will dismiss them "out of hand".

One guy - someone named Nate Silver - against all those other people. of course you dismiss rasmussen. you're a liberal. You'll say anything to dismiss the opposition. But rasmussen is hugely respected on the right and the left by people higher placed than you. These numbers matter. Obama is going down in the polls, to his worst level ever. Sorry. If it's rasmussen or you, or someone named "Nate Silver", whoever the hell that is - I choose Rasmussen. And so do more people by many thousands of times over than your or good old Nate. Obama's tanking. That's life.

As I asked before, you got anybody else besides Rasmussen backing up your claim?

 

[elvis]

Nate Silver has also documented well why Rasmussen isn't reliable anymore, which is I myself will dismiss them "out of hand".

One guy - someone named Nate Silver - against all those other people. of course you dismiss rasmussen. you're a liberal. You'll say anything to dismiss the opposition. But rasmussen is hugely respected on the right and the left by people higher placed than you. These numbers matter. Obama is going down in the polls, to his worst level ever. Sorry. If it's rasmussen or you, or someone named "Nate Silver", whoever the hell that is - I choose Rasmussen. And so do more people by many thousands of times over than your or good old Nate. Obama's tanking. That's life.

As I asked before, you got anybody else besides Rasmussen backing up your claim?

I think this is a pretty good gauge.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

 

[EriktheRed]

One guy - someone named Nate Silver - against all those other people. of course you dismiss rasmussen. you're a liberal. You'll say anything to dismiss the opposition. But rasmussen is hugely respected on the right and the left by people higher placed than you. These numbers matter. Obama is going down in the polls, to his worst level ever. Sorry. If it's rasmussen or you, or someone named "Nate Silver", whoever the hell that is - I choose Rasmussen. And so do more people by many thousands of times over than your or good old Nate. Obama's tanking. That's life.

As I asked before, you got anybody else besides Rasmussen backing up your claim?

I think this is a pretty good gauge.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

Yup, it is, and it does include Ras (which has him at the lowest - imagine that). It also has him a bit higher than low 40s.

 

[Sheldon]

Those numbers aren't too bad. Somewhere within 10 points of 50% sounds about reasonable to me right now, considering the margin of error and how mobile these numbers seem to be over a given months-long period of time.

But I think these popularity numbers really only have significance when he's going head-to-head with a campaign opponent--and right now one half of that equation is missing. The closer to election, the more glaring a, for example, 43% in favor becomes. I say it has more significance because those numbers could then influence the choice of some independents who are apathetic--which I believe is a non-insignificant percent of the electorate. Like a self-fulfilling prophecy in a way.

 

[Sheldon]

a ... a ... a ... what do you call someone who thinks Obama might be Satan? A deviler? A Sataner? A Lucifer-er? Anyway, unlike GTardz, she ain't those near as I can tell.

A Beelzebubber!

 

[GStarz]

I say it has more significance because those numbers could then influence the choice of some independents who are apathetic--which I believe is a non-insignificant percent of the electorate. Like a self-fulfilling prophecy in a way.

That's it, but because they also reflect the person's overall approval - everyone gets influenced by their neighbors and no politician wants to hitch his wagon to a lame horse. When you combine all this, poll numbers are huge. Clinton via Morris knew that when he veered this way and that to stay popular, even when safely between elections, because poll numbers show not only where he is, but suggest where he's going. If a president is doing unpopular things AND his polls are down, people are inclined to work against him to secure their positions in future elections. the less the guy gets done, the weaker he looks. Then more politicians abandon him and before long the politician in question is in free-fall, the opponents pile on and the supporters turn a blind eye. Obama is really close to utter free-fall because he's more polarizing than Hillary, and that means he has very little middle ground left. If the elections were held today Obama would lose, because even in match-ups were he looks favorable, when a president is this low they look for the very thing Obama ran on - change.

Also, when a president loses a mid-term he often gets a little boost - people feel more secure in watchdogs looking after each other and keeping things in check. For Obama to continue his downward trend right now is undoubtedly alarming inside the wh no matter what kind of face they put on.

By the way, Boehner has the highest approval rating in Congress right now, the democrat leadership the lowest by a substantial margin. Obama better have a magic hat filled with tricks because if his popularity sinks, that will embolden more politicians to do what arizona and 11 other states are doing: hit Obama where he seems most vulnerable: on his citizenship issue. This is going to be a hell of a show, because once the deadline reaches for the candidates to turn over their long form and other citizenwship records, obama is going to have to oput up or....? that's the big question. he cannot get on the ballot without it.

These polls could be a warning sign he may not be hearing yet: sharks going after bloody water, even if it's the blood from another shark. His paperwork had better be spiffy, bright, and be able to withstand rigorous forensic analysis, because no one is going to nod happily at a photocopy at this point. And you know, I'm sure it will be. Boy will we birthers look silly then. I can't wait.

 

[Hot Wire]

And now the fascist racist pig obama is fighting for Gay marriage,This evil punk obama will be
in the 20 percent approval ratings soon!

 

[GStarz]

a ... a ... a ... what do you call someone who thinks Obama might be Satan? A deviler? A Sataner? A Lucifer-er? Anyway, unlike GTardz, she ain't those near as I can tell.

A Beelzebubber!

Here we go, usual liberal misrepresentation. I never - ever - said Obama might be Satan. I said that because his name in Hebrew translates into the words that Jesus used to describe Satan in Luke, that devout Christians have a legitimate concern about it. I stand by that. Fact and translation trumps casual pop culture perception for me. As far as the rest, read the very bottom of my signature before saying anything else, because you're proving it.

 

[GStarz]

And now the fascist racist pig obama is fighting for Gay marriage,This evil punk obama will be
in the 20 percent approval ratings soon!

Yes.


You know what? I think he knows it, too. I get the feeling that he's already given up on 2012 because he doesn't have the proper citizenship paperwork to give to several states, so he's ramming through as much far-left agenda as he can. He seems to have reversed course on moderation once all these states recently started enacting eligibility laws. He may be playing the percentages. or he's dumb as post, politically, and only looks good on-camera. You decide.