Overvaluation levels comparable to those before 1929, 2000, 2008

JakeStarkey

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2009
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Are you managing your money well? Are your sources of income crash proof, meaning they will continue if a crash does come? The company, and I, personally, took some losses in 2000, but were buffered well enough to survive without much trouble. We cleaned up in the Bush Great Recession because we saw the overvaluation coming, prepared for it with solid cash reserves and easily available credit at preferred rates, and ended up making a bundle. Prepare now.

Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008

"The cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE), a valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller now stands over 27 and has been exceeded only in the 1929 mania, the 2000 tech mania and the 2007 housing and stock bubble," Alan Newman wrote in his Stock Market Crosscurrents letter at the end of November.

Newman said even if the market's earnings increase by 10 percent under Trump's policies "we're still dealing with the same picture, overvaluation on a very grand scale."
 
The Shiller "cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio" (CAPE) is calculated using price divided by the index's average historical 10-year earnings, adjusted for inflation.

When does the CAPE say it's safe to buy?
 

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