Place Your Bets Here....How Low Will Crude Go?

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How low can it go? Theoretically, zero....although an argument can be made for people paying to not get anymore deliveries of gasoline or heating oil...
 
Yes, it was $8/barrel once upon a time, but isn't this thread about current times? I suspect it's gotten about as low as it's going to be for now. This week I bought fuel for $1.75/gallon. With it being February, the months that will follow will see fuel rise into the summer months just in time for vacationers. A year ago last June we paid over $4.00/gallon while traveling through California.
 
Obama steps in his mess kit...

Obama to seek new tax on oil in budget proposal
Thu Feb 4, 2016 - U.S. President Barack Obama will launch a long-shot bid next week to impose a $10-a-barrel tax on crude oil that would fund the overhaul of the nation's aging transportation infrastructure, the White House said on Thursday. The proposed fee, which would be paid by oil companies and phased in over five years, was quickly met with scorn by lawmakers in the Republican-controlled Congress.
In the last year of his presidency, Obama has said the country must stop subsidizing the "dirty" fossil fuels of the past and focus on clean, renewable fuels that do not exacerbate climate change. "By placing a fee on oil, the President's plan creates a clear incentive for private sector innovation to reduce our reliance on oil and at the same time invests in clean energy technologies that will power our future," the White House said in a statement.

Set to be officially announced in Obama's fiscal 2017 budget plan on Tuesday, the fee would provide nearly $20 billion a year to help expand transit systems across the country and more than $2 billion a year to support the research and development of self-driving vehicles and other low-carbon technologies. Republican lawmakers, who have repeatedly clashed with the Obama administration over energy policy, panned the proposal on social media. House of Representatives Majority Whip Steve Scalise asked on Twitter whether the proposal was "Obama's worst idea yet?"

The $10 tax would come at a time of tumbling oil prices. Oil prices fell last month to below $30 a barrel, the lowest level since 2003, as demand fails to keep pace with a glut of new supply and the world’s biggest oil producers resist cutting production. Kirby said the tax would ultimately be passed along to U.S. consumers, who have benefited from low gasoline prices.

Jeff Zients, director of the White House National Economic Council, pushed back against assertions the oil tax would place U.S. crude producers at a disadvantage. He told reporters on a call that the fee would be applied to domestically produced and imported barrels of oil but not to crude exported from the United States.

Obama to seek new tax on oil in budget proposal

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Oil market scoffs at Obama's plan for $10 tax per barrel
Thu Feb 4, 2016 - President Barack Obama's surprise proposal on Thursday to charge a $10 a barrel fee on crude oil, equivalent to one-third the going price, drew a predictably swift response from traders and industry figures: Are you joking?
No, say administration aides, though they concede that the proposal to levy a fee that would be used to fund investments in clean transportation projects was meant more to start a broader conversation about shifting toward a lower-carbon economy than to be an initiative they expect to pass through a Republican Congress. Oil traders barely batted an eye, with U.S. crude CLc1 prices unchanged at around $31.70 a barrel following the news. Shares in large domestic oil producers like Continental Resources Inc (CLR.N) were little changed on Thursday. "Are you kidding me?" said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics in London, Arkansas. He, like most others, said the fee had no chance of passing into legislation.

Nonetheless, it added insult to injury for an industry reeling from an oil price crash brought on by one of the worst supply gluts in history. Another $10 a barrel in domestic drillers' costs could render thousands of wells uneconomic. The new tax would add an estimated 25 cents a gallon to gas prices, according to traders and analysts. "Even with gas prices at historic lows, gas prices are the barometer to gauge successful energy policies in Washington. Thus any hike, no matter how small, only makes this more challenging," Thomas Cape, senior analyst at Evercore ISI, said in note to clients. U.S. natural gas futures fell to their lowest level so far this year on Thursday. Billionaire investor T. Boone Pickens, who cemented his fortune with bets on oil companies, tweeted: "Don't know where to start. Dumbest idea ever?"

Republicans have previously thwarted administration proposals to end certain tax breaks for oil producers. The oil markets have developed a higher threshold for bearish news as prices have plunged 75 percent since mid-2014. The price slide has hit producers across the world and forced U.S. companies to slash spending. Royal Dutch Shell RDSA.L, Europe's largest oil company, reported its lowest annual income in over a decade. On Wednesday, ExxonMobil Corp (XOM.N), the world's largest oil company, announced its smallest quarterly profit in over a decade while BP (BP.L) said its 2015 loss was its biggest ever. "YIKES!" Carl Larry, chief executive of consultancy Oil Outlooks in Houston, said in an emailed statement. "That's a lot of money to ask from an industry that can't afford to pay its own expenses, much less a $10 tax."

Oil market scoffs at Obama's plan for $10 tax per barrel

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U.S. House Republicans vow to kill Obama oil tax idea
Thu Feb 4, 2016 - Republicans in the U.S. Congress on Thursday reacted swiftly to President Barack Obama's call for a new, $10 per barrel tax on oil, promising to kill what they called an "absurd" idea.
"From day one of President Obama’s administration, he has waged open warfare on American energy," said House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, the third-ranking Republican.

Obama will propose the tax in his upcoming fiscal 2017 budget submission to Congress next week. He wants to use the revenues to increase investments in clean transportation projects, according to the White House.

U.S. House Republicans vow to kill Obama oil tax idea
 
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Yes, it was $8/barrel once upon a time, but isn't this thread about current times? I suspect it's gotten about as low as it's going to be for now. This week I bought fuel for $1.75/gallon. With it being February, the months that will follow will see fuel rise into the summer months just in time for vacationers. A year ago last June we paid over $4.00/gallon while traveling through California.
The cost dynamic now is still comparable to 2001.
 
IMHO, Oil is in the midst of a counter trend rally that should carry it back towards $36-38/bbl.

Then it will fall and make new lows- I suspect around $26/bbl.
 
The Saudi royals are sweating over this. Without their oil revenues who are they going to support their life styles?
 
Crude oil up briefly, and then down again...

Crude oil supply glut to push down prices again, says IEA
Wednesday 10th February, 2016 - The upward trend in oil prices is not expected to last long this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) which foresees oversupply of crude due to higher OPEC production and lower offtake, resulting in further negative price trend.
"Having peaked, at a five-year high of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2015, global oil demand growth is forecast to ease back considerably in 2016, to 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), pulled down by notable slowdowns in Europe, China and the United States," Paris-based IEA said in its monthly market report released Tuesday. Global oil supply dropped 0.2 mb/d to 96.5 mb/d in January, as higher Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) output only partly offset lower non-OPEC production. Non-OPEC supplies slipped 0.5 mb/d from a month earlier to stand close to levels of a year ago. For 2016 as a whole, non-OPEC output is expected to decline by 0.6 mb/d, to 57.1 mb/d.

In contrast, crude oil output by OPEC rose by 280,000 barrels per day in January to 32.63 mb/d as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and a sanctions-free Iran all turned up the taps. Supplies from the group during January stood nearly 1.7 mb/d higher year-on-year. "With the market already awash in oil, it is very hard to see how oil prices can rise significantly in the short term. In these conditions the short term risk to the downside has increased," the IEA said in its report, calling the recent rise in the price of Brent crude to $33.31 a barrel from January's 12-year low of $27.15 a barrel a "false dawn". The crude prices are far below the post-financial crisis peak of $112 a barrel, reached in June 2014.

The surplus of supply compared to demand in early 2016 was greater than projected by the IEA, a leading energy think tank that advises the developed nations. The IEA has projected rise in oil stocks by two million barrels a day in the first quarter and 1.5 million barrels a day in the following three months before falling to around 1.2 million barrels a day later this year. The IEA has forecast that stock building could continue in the second half of 2016 at a rate of 300 million barrels a day in demand growth.

The OECD commercial stocks built counterseasonally by 7.6 million barrels in December to stand at 3 012 million barrels at month end, which is 350 million barrels above average. Refined products covered 32.3 days of forward demand, 0.1 day above the level at end-November. Preliminary information indicates that inventories have continued building into January. Sharing concerns that oil prices may not rise and settle at a higher level has led the OPEC group to start dialogue with other oil producing nations to reduce supply even as indications point to a further rise in OPEC output this year. Both Iraq and Iran have increased production while preliminary data suggests that even Saudi Arabia's shipments had increased.

Crude oil supply glut to push down prices again says IEA

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Oil prices rebound from sharp selloff; more volatility expected
Tue Feb 9, 2016 Crude oil prices pushed higher on Wednesday after Iran said it was open to cooperation with Saudi Arabia, partly recovering from an 8 percent fall in the previous session led by concerns over demand and weak equities.
Prices were supported by comments from Iran's oil minister that Tehran is ready to negotiate with Saudi Arabia over the current conditions in global oil markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA), meanwhile, said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is unlikely to cut a deal with other producers to reduce ballooning output. It predicted the world will store unwanted oil for most of 2016 as declines in U.S. oil output take time. "Another day of heightened volatility is expected as concerns over global growth prospects remain elevated," analysts at ANZ said in a note.

The front-month Brent contract LCOc1 was 75 cents, or 2.5 percent, higher at $31.07 a barrel by 0219 GMT (9.19 a.m. EDT). The contract fel for a fourth straight session on Tuesday to end down $2.56, or 7.8 percent. U.S. crude for March delivery CLc1 was 58 cents higher at $28.52 a barrel. The contract fell 5.9 percent on Tuesday to settle $1.75 lower. Further weighing on prices on Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its 2016 oil demand growth forecast to 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) from a growth of 160,000 bpd previously. "Oil remains susceptible to further weakness as the market digests (Tuesday's) data," ANZ said.

Oil investors will turn to weekly inventory data by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday, with analysts surveyed by Reuters predicting a 3.6 million-barrel rise in crude stocks last week. <EIA/S> The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, reported a build of 2.4 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles for last week. <API/S> Seeking additional protection against wild swings in prices, oil traders have scrambled to scoop up options, sending a key index to its highest level since the worst of the global economic crisis in 2008, data showed.

Oil prices rebound from sharp selloff; more volatility expected
 

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