Q1 2019 watch - if under 3.0% - where is Trump’s economic miracle - can Trump beat O’s 2.9% ever?

[NotfooledbyW]

I wrote: you cannot call one weak and the other strong.

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22187894

I can, correctly, call Obama's recovery weak.
We'll have to wait to see if Trump's economy does better than Obama.
So far, it is.

You are correct only by comparison to economic growth data prior to 2005.

Since then we know according to Trump anything below annual 3.0% GDPis anemic and weak.

"Obama is the first president in modern history not to have a single year of 3 percent growth," Trump said during an Oct. 28 campaign rally in Manchester, N.H.

Trump's claim about Obama's weak economic growth is limited

So when you limit your comparison to pre-2005 historical data only, you must ignore the changes in what defines ‘normal’ or ‘good’ GDP averages over the long term since the peak of US troops were fighting in the quagmire in Iraq.

Ignoring the current definition of normal GDP renders your conclusion that the post recession recovery is weak is a conclusion that no longer should be considered to be valid or correct.

Live in the past if you must. That is what ignorant people do.

 

[Jitss617]

At Suki another lefty that doesn’t know about the two trade deals?? Wow the media is def not doing there job

^^^ troll doesn’t know.

Every one knows except you lol

You don't know...you haven't got a clue.

That's why you are doing Troll 101a now. When caught, try to derail the conversation with insults.

I will ask again (and since you have not a clue about this - you will avoid answering again):

exactly which trade deals are you talking about and where is your link to unbiased, factual proof that to implement these 'trade deals' will radically alter ('crush') the Real GDP Growth?

Google trumps trade deals.. you might be surprised lol
Wow!

You made the claim. You clearly can't back it up or you would have.

I did

 

[Jitss617]

Jitss617

Our trade deficits are skyrocketing. Our trade deficit with China is at the highest in history. Our trade deficit with Mexico is also exploding.

Our federal deficit has gone nuclear, rising 77 percent higher than last year!

Federal spending is at record highs, and the fake tax cut has reduced federal revenues.


President Hillary Clinton is an unmitigated disaster.


Oh wait...


U.S. trade gap with China reaches all-time high under Trump

Mexico can thank the US for its record-high trade surplus

Mexico sure is paying for TH3 WALLE, eh?



U.S. Trade Gap Surged to $621 Billion in 2018, Highest in Decade

.

Going to get worse before it gets better.. now be a good American

 

[NotfooledbyW]

airplanemechanic, post: 22188402,

Can Trump beat Obama's 10% unemployment? Yea, 3.7%

Which President reduced unemployment from 10% to 4.8% so the next President wouid inherit much more stable conditions to further reduce unemployment from 4.8% to 3.7%.

TrumpO will never ever be able to lay claim to reducing unemployment by 5.2% in seven years.

So besides showing how stupid TrumpOroids are in these desperate attempts to have their white president crush the black president on unemployment, it’s obvious that they want no part of this discussion using GDP as the best measure we have.

That’s because it is not looking good for the Great White MAGA Hope.

TrumpO is looking at 2.33 % for 2019 after the big mouthed moron said this:

So, AirMech do you think TrumpO has an evangelical white Christian prayer of getting to 6.0%?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22188973

Obozo's first quarter in year three was -1.0%.

TrumpO’s year three is ten years removed from the year of the Great Bush Recession. TrumpO has a huge advantage because his workforce is 9% larger than the workforce Obama was handed one year removed from
TBR2008.

Try to pay attention to the bigger picture:

View attachment 255599

Forecast now stands at 2.23 for TrumpO’s third year.

The GDP for Obama’s first year was -2.9.

You point out that five quarters beyond that deep recession hole in 2009 the GDP was at -1.0.

GDP went up 1.9% in Q1 2011 from Obama’s first full year,

The GDP for TrumpO’s first year was at 2.2.

I will point out that five quarters beyond that new normal growth year in 2017 the GDP is projecting to come in at around 2.0.

GDP may go down -0.2% in Q1 2019 from TrumpO’s first full year,

I realize you prefer to add apples to oranges in order skew the numbers falsly in TrumpO’s,

Because you need to invoke the disaster negative GDP of -2.5 that devasted the global economy and had adverse and negative impacts on Obama’s first term and the recovery.

We know now as TrumpO data comes in that you cannot expect to ever see the GDP rise above 3.0 under TrumpO economic policy.

Never above 3.0 % seasonably adjusted annual growth rate.

Which most importantly means.

Bottom Line:

Trump's claim about Obama's weak economic growth is limited

“Trump will be the second president in modern history not to have a single year of 3 percent growth,"

According to TrumpO that means his economy is weak and anemic.

I disagree.

year three is ten years removed from the year of the Great Bush Recession.

Obama's year three started with -1.0%. You think 2019Q1 is going to be negative?

You point out that five quarters beyond that deep recession hole in 2009 the GDP was at -1.0.

Only because you're whining about the start of Trump's third year.

GDP may go down -0.2% in Q1 2019 from TrumpO’s first full year,

FFS, stop double counting.

 

[WTH_Progs?]

Progs are mathematically and logically challenged. When an economy rapidly dips its followed by rapid increase. That's just how shit works. You progs should start slowly, get a basketball and bounce it.

"Trump's" economy is one of the best in history. "Obama's" was one of the worst.

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22191859

GDP may go down -0.2% in Q1 2019 from TrumpO’s first full year,

FFS, stop double counting

There is no double counting there - idiot.

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Obama's year three started with -1.0%. You think 2019Q1 is going to be negative?

Nope you are an idiot. Pay attention to the equation I wrote. Obama GDP rose and Trumpo’s is projected to go down

 

[ph3iron]

Here’s the record thru 2018:
View attachment 254781

U.S. - GDP growth by year 1990-2017 | Statista

Trump and Obama are tied a 2.9 Best full year of GDP growth.

Do you think Trump’s Q1 this year will break the tie and boost Trump to 3.0 or more?

Do you believe Trump will ever get a full year of GDP growth this high?

View attachment 254787

Some experts - The liberal fake news WSJ is forecasting 1.4% for Q1.

• Economic Forecasting Survey - The Wall Street Journal. Economist Q&A. Forecast Edition: March 2019 ..... Projected: Q1 2019. 1.4%. Projected: Q2 2019. 2.6%. Projected: Q3 2019. 2.2%. Projected: ...

Trump supporters tell us your forecast?

What happens if Trump’s third year ends (GDP-wise) anywhere below Obama’s 2.9% in 2015?

According to Trump 2.9 is anemic and weak.

"Obama is the first president in modern history not to have a single year of 3 percent growth," Trump said during an Oct. 28 campaign rally in Manchester, N.H.

Trump's claim about Obama's weak economic growth is limited

Do you think Trump will be the second president in modern history not to have a single year of 3 percent growth,"

What does an “anemic” Trump do for Obama’s legacy?

• Moving forward, there are reasons to believe that growth will continue to be slower than was originally hoped. Annual U.S. GDP growth exceeding 3.0 percent, as experienced in the mid- to late 1990s and mid-2000s, is not expected to be attainable over the coming decade.

The U.S. economy to 2022: settling into a new normal : Monthly Labor Review: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Are we settling into a new normal that is not so horrible without 3% sustained GDP growth?

Hilarious.
Knees news doesn't tell our rubes Obama created more jobs in his last 2 years than the con did in his first 2

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Obama's year three started with -1.0%. You think 2019Q1 is going to be negative?

Nope you are an idiot. Pay attention to the equation I wrote. Obama GDP rose and Trumpo’s is projected to go down

Obozo's GDP shrank in the first quarter of his third year.
Do you feel 2019Q1 GDP will shrink?

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22193070.

Obozo's GDP shrank in the first quarter of his third year.
Do you feel 2019Q1 GDP will shrink?

Shrink from what baseline?

Notice how I phrased it;

NotfooledbyW, post: 22189864

GDP went up 1.9% in Q1 2011 from Obama’s first full year,

GDP may go down -0.2% in Q1 2019 from TrumpO’s first full year,

The baseline is the ‘inaugural year’ because it indicates where the GDP stood before each president’s economic policy could have an impact.

(O-a) GDP growth during Obama’s inaugural year, 2009, was -2.9%

(O-b) Q1’2011 GDP was at -1.0%

(O-a) minus (O-b) = 1.9% up from baseline.

(T- a) GDP growth during Trump’s inaugural
year, 2017, was +2.2%.

(T-b) Q1’2019 projected to be +2.0

(T-a) minus (T-b) = -0.2%

Copy that entire formula if you feel the need to dispute the accuracy of my calculation.

With projected GDP% at 2.0 for Q1’2019:

Obama raised GDP in Q1’2011 x 1.9 points from his inaugural year baseline.

Trump will have lower GDP in Q1’2019 x -0.2 points from his inaugural yesr baseline.

Trump has less GDP growth from his inaugural year to the fifth quarter of his presidency. With current projections for Q1’2019 TrumpO lags behind Obama by 2.1 points on the basis of this comparison.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22193070.

Obozo's GDP shrank in the first quarter of his third year.
Do you feel 2019Q1 GDP will shrink?

Shrink from what baseline?

Notice how I phrased it;

NotfooledbyW, post: 22189864

GDP went up 1.9% in Q1 2011 from Obama’s first full year,

GDP may go down -0.2% in Q1 2019 from TrumpO’s first full year,

The baseline is the ‘inaugural year’ because it indicates where the GDP stood before each president’s economic policy could have an impact.

(O-a) GDP growth during Obama’s inaugural year, 2009, was -2.9%

(O-b) Q1’2011 GDP was at -1.0%

(O-a) minus (O-b) = 1.9% up from baseline.

(T- a) GDP growth during Trump’s inaugural
year, 2017, was +2.2%.

(T-b) Q1’2019 projected to be +2.0

(T-a) minus (T-b) = -0.2%

Copy that entire formula if you feel the need to dispute the accuracy of my calculation.

With projected GDP% at 2.0 for Q1’2019:

Obama raised GDP in Q1’2011 x 1.9 points from his inaugural year baseline.

Trump will have lower GDP in Q1’2019 x -0.2 points from his inaugural yesr baseline.

Trump has less GDP growth from his inaugural year to the fifth quarter of his presidency. With current projections for Q1’2019 TrumpO lags behind Obama by 2.1 points on the basis of this comparison.

Shrink from what baseline?

From the previous quarter, moron.

Notice how I phrased it;

Yes, I noticed your moronic phrasing. I mocked your moronic phrasing.

O-a) GDP growth during Obama’s inaugural year, 2009, was -2.9%​

​

(O-b) Q1’2011 GDP was at -1.0%​

​

(O-a) minus (O-b) = 1.9% up from baseline.​

Yes, I'm still laughing at your double counting. And at your math error.

-2.9 - (-1.0) = -1.9
​

(T- a) GDP growth during Trump’s inaugural​

year, 2017, was +2.2%.​

​

(T-b) Q1’2019 projected to be +2.0​

​

(T-a) minus (T-b) = -0.2%​

2.2 - 2.0 = 0.2​

​

Trump has less GDP growth from his inaugural year to the fifth quarter of his presidency. ​

No. Wrong. Trump's Q1 growth this year, unless it is worse than -1.0%, is better than Obama's Q1 2011 GDP.
​

lags behind Obama by 2.1 points on the basis of this comparison​

Your stupid comparison is stupid. ​

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22193836,

(O-a) minus (O-b) = 1.9% up from baseline.

Yes, I'm still laughing at your double counting. And at your math error.

-2.9 - (-1.0) = -1.9

I realize that you are a real life dumbass TrumpO voter, so you may never get it. But here goes.

O-a) GDP growth during Obama’s inaugural year, 2009, was -2.9%
(O-b) Q1’2011 GDP was at -1.0%
(O-a) minus (O-b) = 1.9% up from baseline.

Is -1.0 % GDP lower or higher than -2.9 % GDP

So if Obama starts improving the economy when GDP -2.9% and five quarters later the GDP is at -1.0% did the economy go up 1.9 or did it go down 1.9.

Can you tell me which?

So if Trump starts improving the economy when GDP +2.2% and five quarters later the GDP is at +2.0% did the economy go up 0.2 did it go down 0.2 .

I say Obama is up 1.9 and Trumpo is down 0.2


I asked: Shrink from what baseline?

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22193836

From the previous quarter, moron.

Of course “from the previous quarter”. That is because you can’t admit that Obama started from a lower base line than TrumpO.

If you care to base the comparison on a starting point based on reality you have to do it my way.

Your way is random and does not factor in such things as the Great Bush Recession driving negative GDP -2.9% during Obama’s inaugural year. And of course it buries the reality that during Trumpo’s inaugural year the GDP was at 2.2%.

If both Presidents were to get to 3.0% GDP in five quarters following their respective inaugural year and using the data we have been using how much does each President need to grow the economy.

I say Trumpo at 0.8%.
I say Obama at 5.9%

Who wouid be the better president if they both accomplished it?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22193836,

(O-a) minus (O-b) = 1.9% up from baseline.

Yes, I'm still laughing at your double counting. And at your math error.

-2.9 - (-1.0) = -1.9

I realize that you are a real life dumbass TrumpO voter, so you may never get it. But here goes.

O-a) GDP growth during Obama’s inaugural year, 2009, was -2.9%
(O-b) Q1’2011 GDP was at -1.0%
(O-a) minus (O-b) = 1.9% up from baseline.

Is -1.0 % GDP lower or higher than -2.9 % GDP

So if Obama starts improving the economy when GDP -2.9% and five quarters later the GDP is at -1.0% did the economy go up 1.9 or did it go down 1.9.

Can you tell me which?

So if Trump starts improving the economy when GDP +2.2% and five quarters later the GDP is at +2.0% did the economy go up 0.2 did it go down 0.2 .

I say Obama is up 1.9 and Trumpo is down 0.2


I asked: Shrink from what baseline?

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22193836

From the previous quarter, moron.

Of course “from the previous quarter”. That is because you can’t admit that Obama started from a lower base line than TrumpO.

If you care to base the comparison on a starting point based on reality you have to do it my way.

Your way is random and does not factor in such things as the Great Bush Recession driving negative GDP -2.9% during Obama’s inaugural year. And of course it buries the reality that during Trumpo’s inaugural year the GDP was at 2.2%.

If both Presidents were to get to 3.0% GDP in five quarters following their respective inaugural year and using the data we have been using how much does each President need to grow the economy.

I say Trumpo at 0.8%.
I say Obama at 5.9%

Who wouid be the better president if they both accomplished it?

So if Obama starts improving the economy when GDP -2.9% and five quarters later the GDP is at -1.0% did the economy go up 1.9 or did it go down 1.9.

If the economy went down 1.0% in Q1 2011, it means the economy is smaller than it was in Q4 2010.
That's because it went down 1.0%.

I say Obama is up 1.9 and Trumpo is down 0.2

Of course, because you're bad at math.

If both Presidents were to get to 3.0% GDP in five quarters following their respective inaugural year and using the data we have been using how much does each President need to grow the economy.

3.0%.

 

[AntonToo]

Progs are mathematically and logically challenged. When an economy rapidly dips its followed by rapid increase. That's just how shit works. You progs should start slowly, get a basketball and bounce it.

"Trump's" economy is one of the best in history. "Obama's" was one of the worst.

Maybe you should go play with that ball and leave economics to non-stupid.

There is no such general dynamic to recoveries. Recessions are caused by different issues that result in different recovery rates. Specifically for the real estate and finance near-collapse we’ve had that under-lied Great Recession, there was a lot of bad debt that needed to be cleared off the books even after the recession was technically over. 8 trillion dollar damage doesn’t just get made up over night.

 

[NotfooledbyW]

whitehall, post: 22177192

Where were the economic critics when the Obama administration never hit 3% in eight freaking long long years?

Where are the TrumpO voters when the Trump administration did not hit 3% in 2018? His best year and never will get close the rest of his term.

airplanemechanic, post: 22188402

I'd say Trump is beating Obama candidly in every single category.

Not getting above 3.0% full year GDP.

WTH_Progs?, post: 22191880

"Trump's" economy is one of the best in history.

If that were true, why is TrumpO attacking the FED?

Trump Ridiculously Argues that Fed Wiped 40% Off Dow Rally
Trump Ridiculously Argues that Fed Wiped 40% Off Dow Rally

TrumpO obviously is aware that he said Obama would be the first president never to have a full year GDP average above 3.0.

TrumpO knows he will be the second president to never to do it as well.

Now he has to blame the Fed.

 

[Faun]

Deplorable Yankee, post: 22185968

ya got 30 pages of nutin here

Since your only purpose here is to shit on everything, excuse me but who should give a damn about your rants, edicts and bitching.

I responded to you. You ignore intelligent discussion.

Prove me wrong

Deplorable Yankee, post: 22171567

will obama win the war of gdp average proving once and for all ?
that obama is the light and that trump is indeed a racist homophobic nazi who inspires hate.

.
I cannot find this question or any hint of it being found within the lines of my own OP on this thread.

“Will obama win the war of gdp average proving once and for all ? that obama is the light and that trump is indeed a racist homophobic nazi who inspires hate”

Here is my closing question for posters,

NotfooledbyW, post: 22164534

Are we settling into a new normal that is not so horrible without 3% sustained GDP growth?

Where you get “obama is the light l” and “trump is indeed a racist homophobic nazi who inspires hate” from my OP shouid make you self reflect on the subject of your waning grasp on reality.

We all can help you if you wish but first you must show an effort to learn how to read.

What do you say?

I had to really explain that ?thats exactly what yer doing with meaningless old gdp .
all you guys who play economic analysis all spew the same theme
its meaningless

its like reading a nobel prize wining NY time writer ...who is never right about anything anyway

your whole thread is trump bashing

and calling hard working people rubes

derp

they voted for the democrat his name was Donald J Trump
youre a democrat RIGHT ?

What's not to bash? Trump is producing similar economic figures as the ones he trashed when Obama achieved them.

 

[Faun]

Can Trump beat Obama's 10% unemployment? Yea, 3.7%
Can Trump beat Obama's black unemployment? Yea, best in 50 years.
Can Trump beat Obama's womens unemployment? Yea, best in the history of the nation.
Can Trump beat Obama's foreign policy? Yea. Already sat down the KJU twice. KJU wouldn't give the oreo a minute of his time. And Trump has managed to go 2 years without apologizing for America even once.
Can Trump beat Obama's Hispanic unemployment? Yea, best in over 50 years.
Can Trump beat Obama in manufacturing jobs? Yea, hands down way better. 6 times better.


I'd say Trump is beating Obama candidly in every single category.

LOL

That's the dumbest shit I ever saw. For example....

"Can Trump beat Obama's black unemployment? Yea, best in 50 years."​

The previous record for black unemployment was ... 7%

It peaked at 16.8% following Bush's Great Recession. It was 7.7% when Obama left office. It was 7.1% just 5 months later.

Meaning to go from 16.8% to the record, it dropped 9.1 points under Obama but only 0.7 points under trump.

And here you are, dissing Obama and shaking your tits for trump.

 

[Faun]

I’m saying: We know from current TrumpO economic GDP data that he, so far and most likely will remain THE SECOND PRESIDENT In US HISTORY to FAIL to ACHIEVE a FULL YEAR of GDP GROWTH ABOVE 3%.

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22187894

Even if that is the case, it doesn't change the fact that Obama had the weakest recovery since WWII.

Compared to GDP prior to 2005 Obama’s recovery is weak. But if the MAGA brilliant and businessman genius TrumpO can’t hit 2004 2005 GDP growth with massive tax cuts and deregulation, it does not appear that anyone will. Obama’s numbers need to be compared moving forward from 2005 rather than prior to 2005 even if there were no Great Recession that carried through 2009,

The last time we had GDP over 3.0 was in 2005 while ramping up the war in Iraq. That is Thirteen years ago.

View attachment 255551

More important is that Obama’s recovery
will become the longest expansion in US history in a few months.

• It is also important to put the economic performance in global context. During President Obama's presidency, the United States' GDP growth beat the GDP growth of the other original NATO member countries by the widest margin of any president since World War II.

Economic Record: President Obama

Look at this;

View attachment 255554

Surely the global slow recovery affected US GDP quite a bit.

So much for the rightwingnut bullshit that tax cuts spur economic growth.

 

[Aldo Raine]

I’m saying: We know from current TrumpO economic GDP data that he, so far and most likely will remain THE SECOND PRESIDENT In US HISTORY to FAIL to ACHIEVE a FULL YEAR of GDP GROWTH ABOVE 3%.

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22187894

Even if that is the case, it doesn't change the fact that Obama had the weakest recovery since WWII.

Compared to GDP prior to 2005 Obama’s recovery is weak. But if the MAGA brilliant and businessman genius TrumpO can’t hit 2004 2005 GDP growth with massive tax cuts and deregulation, it does not appear that anyone will. Obama’s numbers need to be compared moving forward from 2005 rather than prior to 2005 even if there were no Great Recession that carried through 2009,

The last time we had GDP over 3.0 was in 2005 while ramping up the war in Iraq. That is Thirteen years ago.

View attachment 255551

More important is that Obama’s recovery
will become the longest expansion in US history in a few months.

• It is also important to put the economic performance in global context. During President Obama's presidency, the United States' GDP growth beat the GDP growth of the other original NATO member countries by the widest margin of any president since World War II.

Economic Record: President Obama

Look at this;

View attachment 255554

Surely the global slow recovery affected US GDP quite a bit.

So much for the rightwingnut bullshit that tax cuts spur economic growth.

And revenues were down for the year in 2018, even though Tramp and the Rethugs said the tax cuts would increase revenues. It doesn't work and was proven yet again.