Olde Europe
Diamond Member
- Dec 8, 2014
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I'm referring to prediction of the climate as it will be about 100 years from now -- the rather wide range of uncertainty of ocean rise. I have seen estimates of about 0.5 m to 2.0 meters rise. I have no idea what values are credible. The question is whether it will be slow enough that there would not be a catastrophic adjustment. Long term extrapolation is always iffy in any complex science.
Long range predictions are always kind of hard. The biggest unknown variable is, of course, how humankind will react to the challenge at hand, whether it is prepared to reduce CO2 emissions, and how much. Of course, ice melt is subject to a variety of parameters, such as changing ocean currents, that are highly uncertain. So, yes, predictions of climate consequences are rather hard. Agreed. The point remains, the general direction into which we're heading, more weather extremes, killer heat waves near the equator, droughts and floodings, rising sea levels, and a variety of impacts on fragile ecosystems, isn't really in doubt, even if the figures behind the decimal point, and the exact details of qualitative changes, aren't all that certain.