Sun Devil 92
Diamond Member
- Apr 2, 2015
- 32,078
- 11,094
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- Banned
- #1
Well, yes.....
Here we have a look at how Sweden was supposed to be the Typhoid Marry of Corona.
The models predicted all kinds of apacolypic bullshit.....that never happened.
The number of patients in ICU has been fairly stable around 500-550 since mid-April. This means that capacity was never exceeded. At this moment, when the models suggested that Sweden would have 30 to 40 patients fighting over every available ICU bed, there is spare capacity in beds, equipment and personnel of around 30 percent (partly as a result of a doubling of the pre-pandemic capacity).
Gardner et al predicted that Sweden would have 82,000 COVID-19 deaths by July 1. That implies around 1,000 deaths every day since the paper was published in mid-April. However, the total number of Swedish COVID-19 deaths at the time of writing is 3,313.
One reason why the models failed is that they — just like most countries’ politicians — underestimated how millions of people spontaneously adapt to new circumstances. They only thought in terms of lockdowns vs business as usual, but failed to consider a third option: that people engage in social distancing voluntarily when they realize lives are at stake and when authorities recommend them to do so.
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Sweden is doing what Sweden wants to do.
We will all be there soon enough.
Here we have a look at how Sweden was supposed to be the Typhoid Marry of Corona.
The models predicted all kinds of apacolypic bullshit.....that never happened.
The number of patients in ICU has been fairly stable around 500-550 since mid-April. This means that capacity was never exceeded. At this moment, when the models suggested that Sweden would have 30 to 40 patients fighting over every available ICU bed, there is spare capacity in beds, equipment and personnel of around 30 percent (partly as a result of a doubling of the pre-pandemic capacity).
Gardner et al predicted that Sweden would have 82,000 COVID-19 deaths by July 1. That implies around 1,000 deaths every day since the paper was published in mid-April. However, the total number of Swedish COVID-19 deaths at the time of writing is 3,313.
One reason why the models failed is that they — just like most countries’ politicians — underestimated how millions of people spontaneously adapt to new circumstances. They only thought in terms of lockdowns vs business as usual, but failed to consider a third option: that people engage in social distancing voluntarily when they realize lives are at stake and when authorities recommend them to do so.
Can we trust COVID modeling?
At last we’re getting a debate about COVID-19 modeling. A look under the hood of the famous Imperial College study revealed twisted and tangled code
spectator.us
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Sweden is doing what Sweden wants to do.
We will all be there soon enough.