The Coming Recession

[g5000]

So....basically.....we need to not accept the gaggle of gutless hacks the GOP or Dems hand us and demand that we accept?

Sort of like.....NOT voting for the establishment guys....like Jeb Bush or John Kasich?

So, we should look for an outsider to shake things up?

Right?

(I'll wait while you apologize)

John Kasich was actually the mastermind behind the balanced budget of the Clinton years. He also went on as governor to take his state from a deficit to a surplus.

Being someone who balances budgets is as outsider as it gets.

 

[Papageorgio]

g5000 wants this to be a Trump bash, but he doesn't have the fact to support it and won't admit that we cannot be held to blame when politicians do NOT do the job they promised.

"Kick the bums out" and never vote for Rs or Ds again is the ONLY real strategy.

It's about politicians that keep adding to the debt. You would have to go back to Coolidge to find a President that didn't raise the debt. Both party's are terrible fiscally.

 

[g5000]

And you voted for the 2008 regime that currently occupies the White House.

Nope. You are just chock full of ASSumptions today!

I did not vote at the federal level from 2006 to 2016. I wrote in Snoopy and other humorous characters. In 2016, I wrote in Ted Cruz in honor of my mother who had recently passed. She was a big Ted Cruz supporter. I am glad she did not live to see him become the sniveling lickspittle he is today.

In 2020, as I said before, I voted for Jorgensen.

I was a member of the Republican Party my entire life until Trump was elected. Then I changed my registration to Independent. I gave up all hope the GOP would ever come to its senses. That party is now extinct.

So even if Trump lives to be 100, I will have been a Republican longer than him.

I have voted for one Democrat my entire life, and that was at the behest of William F. Buckley, who I would hope you have heard of, being a Libertarian and all...

In 1988, Buckley asked us Connecticut conservatives to vote for the Democratic Senate candidate in order to unseat the liberal Republican Lowell Weicker. That was just enough for Weicker to lose by less than one percentage point.

So there you go. Shove your ASSumptions back where they belong.

 

[g5000]

It's about politicians that keep adding to the debt. You would have to go back to Coolidge to find a President that didn't raise the debt. Both party's are terrible fiscally.

It's not just Presidents who raise the debt. Congress holds the purse strings.

That's why I said in my OP that it does not matter which party controls Congress or the White House, they have ALL raised the debt.

You would think that would be one thing we could all agree on, but as you can see by some of the posts in this topic, there are a lot of tards out there who are stuck in their partisan hackery.

 

[BrokeLoser]

There is no need to waste time refuting 2+2=5 and no need to refute your retarded posts, either.

Hahaha…that’s cute, you know you can’t and won’t get out of your own way so you refuse to actually connect the dots because that would mean you would have to admit that you’re fucked in the head…hahaha
You Leftists literally create, manifest and foster EVERYTHING you bitch and whine about….EVERYTHING!

 

[g5000]

We are a consumer economy.

That's why when we hit a recession in the early 2000s, President Bush told everyone to go out shopping. The press mocked him for it, but that really was the only way out of the recession.

So we went out and bought houses we could not afford and took on way too much debt. Which was a mistake. The Fed created that mistake by lowering interest rates to make it easier to get ourselves in debt.

It's all about pain avoidance. But mitigating pain avoidance is like debt. Debt is future spending brought forward. Pain mitigation is pain pushed into the future. Do it enough times, and the pain snowballs and becomes more and more resistant to efforts by the Fed to reduce it.

Sooner or later, everybody is going to have to take a bite. And the shit sandwich is getting bigger and bigger.



We are absolutely hooked on spending. So it is no surprise we demand our politicians spend, spend, spend, too.

Consistent with my philosophy, I believe we need to get rid of income taxes (which are a tax on production) and enact consumption taxes like the Fair Tax.


Economically speaking, we must admit both parties spend way too much. The only difference between them is the Republican Party hates the poor, and the Democratic Party hates the rich.

 

[Papageorgio]

It's not just Presidents who raise the debt. Congress holds the purse strings.

That's why I said in my OP that it does not matter which party controls Congress or the White House, they have ALL raised the debt.

You would think that would be one thing we could all agree on, but as you can see by some of the posts in this topic, there are a lot of tards out there who are stuck in their partisan hackery.

We did well budget wise with Clinton and Gingrich bur that was the last decent combo on controlling spending.

 

[Mac1958]

The reason politicians from both parties spend as they do is that they work within a system that incentivizes and rewards their worst behaviors.

Nothing improves unless and until we change the SYSTEM.


#ForwardParty

 

[Vel]

What Biden policy is responsible for inflation?

Only a straight up retard would think our problems were all created in the past year.

Biden's immediate attack on U.S energy has been a huge driver for inflation. Biden's weakness in abandoning Afghanistan emboldened a suddenly oil rich Putin to invade Ukraine leading to coming food shortages because of the lack of Ukrainian fertilizer and grain. Biden's ignorance in putting inexperienced Buttigieg in charge of the supply chain led to shortages that raised prices. This inflation was NOT inevitable. A competent president could have avoided this.

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

John Kasich was actually the mastermind behind the balanced budget of the Clinton years. He also went on as governor to take his state from a deficit to a surplus.

Being someone who balances budgets is as outsider as it gets.

Kasich handed the Democrats the 1994 "assault weapons" ban.

That is a big fat NO. He should be fucking executed for that treasonous act.

There are NO GOOD OPTIONS but you want to shit on us for electing a non-politician.

WE ALL DID EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANTED!!!! IT IS NOT OUR FAULT!!!!

 

[bendog]

Sounds like we need more covid relief money!!
And let's just make unemployment an extra $1000 a month.
Cause nothing solves too much money in the system than giving more away!!

Sounds like we need more covid relief money!!
And let's just make unemployment an extra $1000 a month.
Cause nothing solves too much money in the system than giving more away!!

stop drinking piss. Covid relief was a twoparty effort and it's been over since 21.

 

[bendog]

Biden's immediate attack on U.S energy has been a huge driver for inflation. Biden's weakness in abandoning Afghanistan emboldened a suddenly oil rich Putin to invade Ukraine leading to coming food shortages because of the lack of Ukrainian fertilizer and grain. Biden's ignorance in putting inexperienced Buttigieg in charge of the supply chain led to shortages that raised prices. This inflation was NOT inevitable. A competent president could have avoided this.

stop drinking piss. Anything Biden's done wrong on energy is yeIars outlying.

Personally, I'd have gone ahead with XL but all the oil canada is producing NOW is making it to market. Ditto with the Arctic.

Gas prices are simply the market price of all oil being produced globally.

IF TRUMP was, or is, potus, we can assume he'll torpedo embargos on Russia though.

 

[bendog]

I wonder if there is one thing we can all agree on.

If there is, it should be the fact that neither of the major parties is fiscally responsible.

No matter which party controls Congress, no matter what letter is after the name of the president, the federal debt climbs faster and faster with each succeeding administration. It is as if every president is trying to beat the previous president's record.

Strangely enough, the Antichrist Bill Clinton turns out to be the most fiscally responsible president in the modern era. Bush added $5 trillion to the debt in eight years, Obama added $8 trillion in eight years, Trump added $8 trillion in four years, and it looks like Biden wants to add $12 trillion in four years.


But perhaps the greatest criminal enterprise since 2008 has been the Federal Reserve.

The Fed has been keeping interest rates near zero (ZIRP) for way too long. They enacted ZIRP to rescue the economy from the Great Recession. But once the economy began to recover, they did not discontinue the program. Even worse, they enacted QE1, then QE2, then QE3 and we have been under QE4ever since.

This has resulted in a massive increase in the money supply.


What's more, when you keep interests rates too low, you encourage high risk investments. If interests rates are low, the only decent returns you can get from an investment is to invest in high risk vehicles. Like, say, cryptocurrency. And corporate junk and near-junk bonds.


One definition of inflation is "too many dollars chasing too few goods".


Take a look at this chart of the M2 money supply:

M2

View data of a measure of the U.S. money supply that includes all components of M1 plus several less-liquid assets.

fred.stlouisfed.org

There are way too many dollars out there.

You may notice a sudden uptick in the chart at the beginning of 2020. That is because the Fed changed the definition of M1 (which is part of M2) in May 2020. The reasons for this are nefarious. I can go into that later.

Nevertheless, you can see with your own eyes there is too much money in our economy.



Back in the 2000 presidential campaign, Darth Cheney ominously stated, "Deficits don't matter." That may be true so long as our economy grows faster than our debt.

But look at this chart of debt-to-GDP:

iSince the Great Recession, our debt has been growing much faster than our economy.

More in the next post.

I agree. But I'd add that in addition to fiscal insanity by both parties, I think we have to admit that both W and Trump simply goosed it for political purposes. And Pelosi did institute paygo after the dems retook congress. Not that Obama was great, but he did inherit a meltdown, and his deficits were declining ... while the Fed failed to end buying govt debt. Then came Trump, and covid.

But even if we'd agree on fiscal issues ... we have supply structural problems that I fear the fed cannot affect. We simply don't have enough oil. Biden's actions may cause there to be less than might be possible 3 years out, but there's no cure except to find another fuel source.
We had a housing shortage when Trump was potus, but the pandemic caused the market to collapse, and when it restarted, building was behind. No the millennials want houses. Well a recession will cure that.
And lastly, we don't have enough meat or non-meat food. Global warming is killing the farmers, adn don't jack off Trump after his fucking the farmers with his tariffs.

These three problems are beyond partisan politics.

 

[Vel]

stop drinking piss. Anything Biden's done wrong on energy is yeIars outlying.

Personally, I'd have gone ahead with XL but all the oil canada is producing NOW is making it to market. Ditto with the Arctic.

Gas prices are simply the market price of all oil being produced globally.

IF TRUMP was, or is, potus, we can assume he'll torpedo embargos on Russia though.

No. The things Biden has done on energy are sadly not years away. What we're seeing right now is the effect of his immediate attack on U.S, oil and natural gas production. The Biden administration even went so far as to pressure lenders to refuse to invest in fossil fuel energy exploration. How much investment do you think was lost when our government killed the Keystone pipeline? And seriously, it was Biden that took the embargo OFF of Russia. Only a true fool is still trying to pretend that there was Trump/Russia collusion.

 

[g5000]

The reason politicians from both parties spend as they do is that they work within a system that incentivizes and rewards their worst behaviors.

Nothing improves unless and until we change the SYSTEM.


#ForwardParty

I think it is time for a new major party.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The reason politicians from both parties spend as they do is that they work within a system that incentivizes and rewards their worst behaviors.

Nothing improves unless and until we change the SYSTEM.


#ForwardParty

And no third party is going to do that, so don't waste your vote on them yet. Vote and call for for politicians who are trying to take the money out of campaigns and elections, first. Then the third parties can compete.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

I think it is time for a new major party.

Well, there isn't going to be one. The power donors like to bet on people who can actually win.

 

[Mac1958]

It's beginning to look like the Fed has made its choice between strangling inflation/letting the market slide and being soft on inflation/buoying the market. It looks like they've chosen the former. Okay, let's see.

As always, though, Powell is making it clear that each step will be data-dependent, and I've always like the way he reminds everyone of that.

Fingers crossed.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

stop drinking piss. Covid relief was a twoparty effort and it's been over since 21.

Uh... it was a joke.
However, Covid relief $$$ is faaaaar from over. Hospitals are only now running out of the free money.
All kinds of organizations and businesses are still using the money.

In fact the SBA is right now offering extensions and additional "relief" funds.
Which are horrible loans. Always-always be very wary and suspect of SBA loans.

 

[Mac1958]

And no third party is going to do that, so don't waste your vote on them yet. Vote and call for for politicians who are trying to take the money out of campaigns and elections, first. Then the third parties can compete.

Well, I decided a while back: I'm going full "single issue" voting for now. The system has to be changed, and that's what I'll be pushing.

From now on my efforts and contributions are going on my kids' behalf, not mine. I don't want to leave this ugly mess to them. Enough.