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"It looks very likely that globally 2014, 2015 and 2016 will all be amongst the very warmest years ever recorded," Rowan Sutton of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, which contributed to the report, told journalists. "This is not a fluke," he said. "We are seeing the effects of energy steadily accumulating in the Earth's oceans and atmosphere, caused by greenhouse gas emissions." The rate at which global temperatures are increasing is also on track to pick up in the coming years, ending a period of more than a decade in which the pace of warming worldwide had appeared to slow down, the report said. This "pause" has been seized upon by sceptics as evidence that climate change was driven more by natural cycles than human activity.
Some scientists, however, argue that there was no significant slowdown, pointing instead to flawed calculations. The 20-page report from Britain's Met Office, entitled "Big changes underway in the climate system?", highlights current transitions in major weather patterns that affect rainfall and temperatures at a regional level. An El Nino weather pattern centered in the tropical Pacific Ocean is "well underway", the report says, and shaping up to be one of the most intense on record. Very strong El Ninos also occurred over the winters of 1997 and 1982. Set to grow stronger in the coming months, the current El Nino -- a result of shifting winds and ocean circulation -- is likely to result is dry conditions in parts of Asia and Australia, as well as southern and sub-Saharan North Africa, the Met Office said.
Set to grow stronger in the coming months, the current El Nino -- a result of shifting winds and ocean circulation -- is likely to result is dry conditions in parts of Asia and Australia
By contrast, the southwestern United States -- including parched California, suffering from an historic drought -- has a strong chance of seeing higher-than-average rainfall. El Ninos also affect tropical storms, making them less likely in the North Atlantic and more intense in the West Pacific, where they are known as typhoons. Overall, an El Nino is also likely to add a little heat to the general impact of global warming. Meanwhile, warming sea surface temperatures along the North American west coast point to a reversal of another natural pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This, too, could temporarily nudge regional temperatures higher, but has yet to be confirmed, the report said.
Finally, the interplay of ocean currents and atmosphere in the Atlantic -- another multi-decade oscillation -- is moving the other way, and will have a cooling effect. "The current warm phase is now 20 years long and historical precedent suggests a return to relatively cool conditions could occur within a few years," the report says. By itself, that would mean cooler and drying summers in northern Europe, and increased rainfall in the northeastern United States. While all of these cyclical forces affect weather and temperatures trends, global warming is the main driver of change today, the report concluded. "We know that natural patterns contribute to global temperature in any given year, but very warm temperatures so far this year indicate the continued impact of increasing greenhouse gases," said Stephen Belcher, director of the Met Office Hadley Centre.
Global warming to pick up in 2015, 2016: experts
Researchers said on Tuesday that increasing temperatures were enabling Arctic mosquitoes to grow more quickly and emerge sooner from their pupal stage, greatly expanding their numbers and menacing the caribou whose blood they eat. The findings illustrate the complex and sometimes unpredictable consequences of climate change, particularly in sensitive regions like the Arctic, the researchers said. Arctic mosquitoes develop in shallow springtime tundra ponds formed by melting snow. The researchers studied mosquito populations in ponds near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland.
They monitored the number of the mosquitoes and their life stages. They also conducted lab experiments to measure the effects of temperature on mosquito development time. They concluded that if Arctic temperatures rise by 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) - a level in the mid-range of predictions by a U.N. panel for Arctic warming this century - mosquitoes would have a 53 percent better chance of maturing to adulthood.
The researchers said mosquitoes were already emerging two weeks sooner than in the past and experiencing accelerated growth that lets them reduce their time in the ponds when they could be eaten by their main predators, diving beetles. "In response to biting insects, caribou have been observed to run to the top of a windy ridge where there are fewer mosquitoes but their food may be of lower quality," said ecologist Lauren Culler of Dartmouth College's Institute of Arctic Studies, who led the study published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. "In addition, more adults flying around in search of blood would increase the intensity of insect harassment."
Caribou health could decline if the animals spend more time avoiding insects and less time foraging on high-quality food, Culler said.Culler said while mosquitoes may thrive in the short term, Arctic warming eventually could disrupt their ability to reproduce if they begin to emerge too early before the animals whose blood they eat are available on the landscape. "In addition, if winters become more variable such that ponds go through freeze and thaw cycles, it could completely disrupt the biology of Arctic mosquitoes and kill many of the larvae early on in development. It's not all good news for the mosquitoes," Culler said.
In warming Arctic, mosquitoes may live long and prosper
My, my, now the nice nurse has some pretty pills for you, and you can go back to your nice room with the soft walls.The Easter Bunny's egg production is down by seven percent.
Big Foot's food supply continues to dwindle.
Santa's North Pole is three degrees too warm.
The Tooth Fairy is running a 2 trillion dollar deficit.
SOMETHING MUST BE DONE NOW!
My, my, now the nice nurse has some pretty pills for you, and you can go back to your nice room with the soft walls.The Easter Bunny's egg production is down by seven percent.
Big Foot's food supply continues to dwindle.
Santa's North Pole is three degrees too warm.
The Tooth Fairy is running a 2 trillion dollar deficit.
SOMETHING MUST BE DONE NOW!
NOAA Makes It Official: 2015 Has Been Really Hot
The world experienced the warmest August on record, and the planet is still on pace for the hottest year in measurements that date back to the late 1800s, according to new federal data released Thursday.
Just in from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: The global average temperature over land and ocean surfaces combined was 1.58 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th-century average, and it beat the previous previous August record set in 2014 by 0.16 degrees.
August wasn’t the only steamy month. According to NOAA, it was the warmest summer, too, as the June-to-August stretch beat out last year’s previous record.
The new findings are consistent with other data sets. Mashable’s Andrew Freedman reported Wednesday that both NASA and the Japan Meteorological Agency data show the hottest summer on record.
sweet map
Your maps show no dispute, no conflict. Worthless.
Here
There is no conflict between these data and the GHCN-M data only for Africa and Australia. There is no conflict anywhere.
As it has been, so will it always be. You've got NOTHING, but you act like you've got it all. There's a name for that.
Your maps show no dispute, no conflict. Worthless.
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