william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
- 2,402
No one really knows because of a grab bag of reasons which include:
The CBO scoring formulae are not dynamic.
With all of the capital markets having multiple relocation strategies because of the high likelihood of IL bankruptcy and the need for communications between equity and commodities markets there will likely be a black swan event moving 10-20 of national income.
Knock on effects such as the relocation of the theater district from Broadway will not be calculable except in hindsight. Ease of light speed communication between equity and commodities markets is likely to be the deciding factor. My own guess as to front runner would be Memphis and Nashville so it is only necessary to bribe one state legislature to get the needed concessions. But there are so many other possibilities from Nevada to SC and from ND to the valley in TX that betting on where is a fool's game.
Without residency cards as there is in China and with mostly the rich moving the likely results will be stronger than what was seen under Deng with an even bigger real estate bubble that will likely burst after the 2020 election.
The CBO scoring formulae are not dynamic.
With all of the capital markets having multiple relocation strategies because of the high likelihood of IL bankruptcy and the need for communications between equity and commodities markets there will likely be a black swan event moving 10-20 of national income.
Knock on effects such as the relocation of the theater district from Broadway will not be calculable except in hindsight. Ease of light speed communication between equity and commodities markets is likely to be the deciding factor. My own guess as to front runner would be Memphis and Nashville so it is only necessary to bribe one state legislature to get the needed concessions. But there are so many other possibilities from Nevada to SC and from ND to the valley in TX that betting on where is a fool's game.
Without residency cards as there is in China and with mostly the rich moving the likely results will be stronger than what was seen under Deng with an even bigger real estate bubble that will likely burst after the 2020 election.
