The Recovery Thread

[antagon]

im not sure what measures you mean to advocate with respect to 'focus'. i find worthy investments present themselves.

for instance, consumption does not necessarily rely on production and job growth specifically, as these are just two instances or sources of supply and demand, respectively. you mentioned the trade deficit. the US, for better or worse, relies on imports for supply. a demand recovery will rely heavily on job growth, but failing that, concentration of wealth, deflation and government subsistence are eager volunteers which have encroached on the american labor base every contraction since the late 70s at least.

 

[Foxfyre]

Is it just me or is this two or more threads trying to be one?

Internal factors show recovery.

The whole freaking world is blowing up out there.

Yeah but look at all those full trucks and trains.

Yeah but the EU is flirting with meltdown and so is the Far East and when they blow we're going to be in a world of hurt.

How is it recovery when more people are either losing or giving up their houses? OK there are whole web sites reconstructing the numbers that DC doctors but damn those numbers look good.

That's what I am reading on here.

First, to fully understand the phenomenon, one must appreciate how much George W. Bush has been hated. He was hated by many on the Left because he was elected and they needed no other reason though they found or manufactured sufficient reasons to keep the passion going. Some on the Right came to hate him as components within the admnistration turned sour--GITMO, suspicion about methods utilized by Homeland Securities after 9/11, war weariness as Iraq and Afghanistan went on and on, and imprudent policies much more acceptable to Democrats than to Republicans; however he got no credit for those from the Democrats. He did get criticism and blame from the Republicans.

Second, to fully understand the phenomenon, one must appreciate how much Barack Hussein Obama has been revered, adored, worshipped, and exalted. He has been placed on a pedestal too high for any mortal being but such expectations do not die easily. Even those who did not vote for him hoped beyond hope that he truly was the annointed one. So now we have a situation in which so much of the economy and social policy and incompetence is indefensible, but it must continue to be defended lest the Emperor be exposed as naked. You don't give up on a god just because prayers go unasnwered. And it is terribly difficult to admit that one was so terribly wrong about somebody.

So you have the dual message of those those who desperately need to believe that Obama is getting it done re the economy. To those, anybody getting a job is a bright indicator even if a hundred others lose there. Every home purchased is proof of recovery even if there are also a hundred foreclosures.

And then there's the rest of us who have accepted that the government has not gotten it done, and furthermore doesn't have a clue what to do about it. And we tremble in fear that they will continue what they have been doing which is only paving the road to get us to hell faster.

 

[antagon]

i would just say its a matter of optimism and pessimism. there is ammo for both ends to cite, because we are in a recovery, but a bad one. Fox, i'm sure, absolutely certain that your analysis of political alignment applies, however, it clearly applies to those who are eager to declare our economy down for the count, too. the pessimists.

be it neubarth or his replacement, zander, the die-hard pessimists refuse to support their claims of government-led economic ruin - clearly in the political realm which you've described. alternatively, i would like to count myself among those whose impression of the economy is based on observations of of its health from stats, study, and feedback i get from my participation in it. this participation is centered, admittedly, on self. all of my net worth is at play in US and US-dependent economies, and seeing some rise in its value or its returns, does illicit some optimism on my part. i don't attribute much of that to obama at all.

then again, i'm always an optimist; its just worked out to well for me as a mindset.

 

[Zander]

i would just say its a matter of optimism and pessimism. there is ammo for both ends to cite, because we are in a recovery, but a bad one. Fox, i'm sure, absolutely certain that your analysis of political alignment applies, however, it clearly applies to those who are eager to declare our economy down for the count, too. the pessimists.

be it neubarth or his replacement, zander, the die-hard pessimists refuse to support their claims of government-led economic ruin - clearly in the political realm which you've described. alternatively, i would like to count myself among those whose impression of the economy is based on observations of of its health from stats, study, and feedback i get from my participation in it. this participation is centered, admittedly, on self. all of my net worth is at play in US and US-dependent economies, and seeing some rise in its value or its returns, does illicit some optimism on my part. i don't attribute much of that to obama at all.

then again, i'm always an optimist; its just worked out to well for me as a mindset.

Once again you are attempting to put words in my mouth. I am not a pessimist. I am a realist.

I believe we are facing 4 large structural changes in our economy - higher volatility, lower trend growth, higher levels of structural unemployment, and an explosion of debt to GDP.

We have recently seen the highest volatility in the last forty years across leading indicators. Look at this chart of the LEI

Higher volatility makes the possibility of more frequent recessions more likely. If you think this is a positive development, good for you.

Then we have lower growth. The 12-quarter rolling average of Nominal GDP growth has been on a steady decline for 2 decades and there is nothing to indicate this trend will change. Is this a positive sign for the economy? I don't think so, but you are free to draw your own conclusions.

Then we have the unemployment problem. The average time of unemployment has sharply increased from less than 20 weeks only 2 years ago to over 30 weeks now – a 50% increase. Those unemployed for shorter lengths of time now make up much less of the total than they used to. Instead, the majority of unemployed workers is comprised of those in a chronic state of joblessness. Is this a good sign? Not for me, but I am a realist, not an optimist.

Then we have the soon to be realized effects of massive government spending and the national debt projected to exceed GDP in a few years. Do you think the US can keep interest rates artificially low forever? I doubt it. When the rates start to rise what do yo think will happen?

Yes, I am worried about the direction our economy is headed. You'll have to forgive me if that disturbs your delicate optimism.

 

[william the wie]

i would just say its a matter of optimism and pessimism. there is ammo for both ends to cite, because we are in a recovery, but a bad one. Fox, i'm sure, absolutely certain that your analysis of political alignment applies, however, it clearly applies to those who are eager to declare our economy down for the count, too. the pessimists.

be it neubarth or his replacement, zander, the die-hard pessimists refuse to support their claims of government-led economic ruin - clearly in the political realm which you've described. alternatively, i would like to count myself among those whose impression of the economy is based on observations of of its health from stats, study, and feedback i get from my participation in it. this participation is centered, admittedly, on self. all of my net worth is at play in US and US-dependent economies, and seeing some rise in its value or its returns, does illicit some optimism on my part. i don't attribute much of that to obama at all.

then again, i'm always an optimist; its just worked out to well for me as a mindset.

Except for in China and maybe Japan government is only indirectly the problem. Go to the library and get "Generations" by Howe & Strauss and then check works on the product life cycle going back to the 1800s. The combination of age related spending and the product life cycle baked in the current down turn at least 20 years ago.

Nothing anyone in DC does now will affect European and Far East birthrates of 20 or more years ago and the US is most definitely in the Economic fall out zone of less than zero population growth.

Speed of travel trendlines have been predicting FTL travel in 2030-70 for at least half a century. Leaving aside relativity for the moment that is a powerful trendline. similar trendlines in cost of computing, cost per video channel and so on also exist. Product life cycle driven deflation is sweeping the world during a time of high leverage and that ain't going to change.

The US is best placed for these changes because our unfunded liabilities are a much lower multiple of GDP and greater labor flexibility. But that simply means that casualty rates in the US will be far lower than in most of the rest of the world as in maybe we will be 10% smaller while the rest of the world grows 30+% smaller. That still ain't good.

 

[Foxfyre]

i would just say its a matter of optimism and pessimism. there is ammo for both ends to cite, because we are in a recovery, but a bad one. Fox, i'm sure, absolutely certain that your analysis of political alignment applies, however, it clearly applies to those who are eager to declare our economy down for the count, too. the pessimists.

be it neubarth or his replacement, zander, the die-hard pessimists refuse to support their claims of government-led economic ruin - clearly in the political realm which you've described. alternatively, i would like to count myself among those whose impression of the economy is based on observations of of its health from stats, study, and feedback i get from my participation in it. this participation is centered, admittedly, on self. all of my net worth is at play in US and US-dependent economies, and seeing some rise in its value or its returns, does illicit some optimism on my part. i don't attribute much of that to obama at all.

then again, i'm always an optimist; its just worked out to well for me as a mindset.

That "eternal optimist" under my Screen name is honest. I am generally able to find a silver lining on just about anything.

But like Zander, though he and I don't always agree on every point, I am also a realist. Pretending that all is well when it isn't is usually not a constructive approach.

The fact that even the administration projects huges deficits as far as the eye can see suggests they don't believe any recovery is imminent, nor do they care. Just tonight I listened, with clenched jaw, the President use the current Gulf crisis to forge ahead full steam on Cap & Tax. Just like healthcare reform most of which won't take effect until after the next Presidential election, but it couldn't wait. . . .now he says Cap & Tax can't wait. And it was obvious to anybody listening that he doesn't have a clue how to wean us off oil and accomplish the 'green world' that he envisions, but he intends to start throwing many hundreds of billions at the problem and hoping something will work.

Those additional hundreds of billions, just like those in healthcare reform, will come out of the economy and/or will be borrowed from people who don't like us very much thus mortgaging our children and grandchildren's future in very unhealthy ways.

And there isn't any way to put a silver lining on that I'm afraid. Those optimists among us, can only hope we can elect people to office who will stop and reverse the insanity.

 

[The Rabbi]

News out this AM: Housing starts down. Wholesale prices down.
Economy is not recovering.

 

[Zander]

News out this AM: Housing starts down. Wholesale prices down.
Economy is not recovering.

How Nuebarthian of you!! BOOHOO!!!! Don't you realize that all you need to do is be optimistic!!!? Just think happy thoughts and everything will be OK!!

Who needs realism? Let's all just ride the Optimism Rainbow Unicorm!!! It comes with Hope and Change too!!

The Optimism Rainbow Unicorn!! It's like, a miracle and stuff!!!

 

[Neubarth]

News out this AM: Housing starts down. Wholesale prices down.
Economy is not recovering.

How Nuebarthian of you!! BOOHOO!!!! Don't you realize that all you need to do is be optimistic!!!? Just think happy thoughts and everything will be OK!!

Who needs realism? Let's all just ride the Optimism Rainbow Unicorm!!! It comes with Hope and Change too!!

The Optimism Rainbow Unicorn!! It's like, a miracle and stuff!!!

NEUbarthian means to stick to total honesty even if it is not popular. I have done that all of my life. Just stick up for what is right. The "learned man of the sacred scrolls" knows that very well. I started doing that once I started reading the Sacred Scrolls. It is amazing what a little reading can do in a person's life.

 

[The Rabbi]

News out this AM: Housing starts down. Wholesale prices down.
Economy is not recovering.

How Nuebarthian of you!! BOOHOO!!!! Don't you realize that all you need to do is be optimistic!!!? Just think happy thoughts and everything will be OK!!

Who needs realism? Let's all just ride the Optimism Rainbow Unicorm!!! It comes with Hope and Change too!!

The Optimism Rainbow Unicorn!! It's like, a miracle and stuff!!!

NEUbarthian means to stick to total honesty even if it is not popular. I have done that all of my life. Just stick up for what is right. The "learned man of the sacred scrolls" knows that very well. I started doing that once I started reading the Sacred Scrolls. It is amazing what a little reading can do in a person's life.

Welcome back, guy. I know I missed you, even if you're a little off sometimes.

 

[Foxfyre]

NEUbarthian means to stick to total honesty even if it is not popular. I have done that all of my life. Just stick up for what is right. The "learned man of the sacred scrolls" knows that very well. I started doing that once I started reading the Sacred Scrolls. It is amazing what a little reading can do in a person's life.

Well we can reserve the Sacred Scrolls for scrutiny on another thread perhaps, but yes, a little honesty would be a very good thing to infuse into the insanities of our modern existence. Wouldn't it be great to actually focus honestly on real problems, possible solutions, proposed policy and options, etc. instead of playing the constant blame and whose is blackest game or trying to exalt the un-exaltable?

And I too am happy to see you here.

 

[antagon]

i would just say its a matter of optimism and pessimism. there is ammo for both ends to cite, because we are in a recovery, but a bad one. Fox, i'm sure, absolutely certain that your analysis of political alignment applies, however, it clearly applies to those who are eager to declare our economy down for the count, too. the pessimists.

be it neubarth or his replacement, zander, the die-hard pessimists refuse to support their claims of government-led economic ruin - clearly in the political realm which you've described. alternatively, i would like to count myself among those whose impression of the economy is based on observations of of its health from stats, study, and feedback i get from my participation in it. this participation is centered, admittedly, on self. all of my net worth is at play in US and US-dependent economies, and seeing some rise in its value or its returns, does illicit some optimism on my part. i don't attribute much of that to obama at all.

then again, i'm always an optimist; its just worked out to well for me as a mindset.

That "eternal optimist" under my Screen name is honest. I am generally able to find a silver lining on just about anything.

But like Zander, though he and I don't always agree on every point, I am also a realist. Pretending that all is well when it isn't is usually not a constructive approach.

The fact that even the administration projects huges deficits as far as the eye can see suggests they don't believe any recovery is imminent, nor do they care. Just tonight I listened, with clenched jaw, the President use the current Gulf crisis to forge ahead full steam on Cap & Tax. Just like healthcare reform most of which won't take effect until after the next Presidential election, but it couldn't wait. . . .now he says Cap & Tax can't wait. And it was obvious to anybody listening that he doesn't have a clue how to wean us off oil and accomplish the 'green world' that he envisions, but he intends to start throwing many hundreds of billions at the problem and hoping something will work.

Those additional hundreds of billions, just like those in healthcare reform, will come out of the economy and/or will be borrowed from people who don't like us very much thus mortgaging our children and grandchildren's future in very unhealthy ways.

And there isn't any way to put a silver lining on that I'm afraid. Those optimists among us, can only hope we can elect people to office who will stop and reverse the insanity.

everyone's entitled to their impression of their own outlook. all that is subjective and relative, anyhow. i would characterize you as a pessimistic idealist, however. claiming high ground on realism is is popular with pessimists, and i would say you and the zander fit the bill eagerly. while i recognize negative realities, pessimism is realized by following the implications of these realities through to the most negative repercussions, be it zander's total meltdown or your contention that the administration does not care about the recovery of the US economy. what brand of realism is that, fox?

 

[Foxfyre]

i would just say its a matter of optimism and pessimism. there is ammo for both ends to cite, because we are in a recovery, but a bad one. Fox, i'm sure, absolutely certain that your analysis of political alignment applies, however, it clearly applies to those who are eager to declare our economy down for the count, too. the pessimists.

be it neubarth or his replacement, zander, the die-hard pessimists refuse to support their claims of government-led economic ruin - clearly in the political realm which you've described. alternatively, i would like to count myself among those whose impression of the economy is based on observations of of its health from stats, study, and feedback i get from my participation in it. this participation is centered, admittedly, on self. all of my net worth is at play in US and US-dependent economies, and seeing some rise in its value or its returns, does illicit some optimism on my part. i don't attribute much of that to obama at all.

then again, i'm always an optimist; its just worked out to well for me as a mindset.

That "eternal optimist" under my Screen name is honest. I am generally able to find a silver lining on just about anything.

But like Zander, though he and I don't always agree on every point, I am also a realist. Pretending that all is well when it isn't is usually not a constructive approach.

The fact that even the administration projects huges deficits as far as the eye can see suggests they don't believe any recovery is imminent, nor do they care. Just tonight I listened, with clenched jaw, the President use the current Gulf crisis to forge ahead full steam on Cap & Tax. Just like healthcare reform most of which won't take effect until after the next Presidential election, but it couldn't wait. . . .now he says Cap & Tax can't wait. And it was obvious to anybody listening that he doesn't have a clue how to wean us off oil and accomplish the 'green world' that he envisions, but he intends to start throwing many hundreds of billions at the problem and hoping something will work.

Those additional hundreds of billions, just like those in healthcare reform, will come out of the economy and/or will be borrowed from people who don't like us very much thus mortgaging our children and grandchildren's future in very unhealthy ways.

And there isn't any way to put a silver lining on that I'm afraid. Those optimists among us, can only hope we can elect people to office who will stop and reverse the insanity.

everyone's entitled to their impression of their own outlook. all that is subjective and relative, anyhow. i would characterize you as a pessimistic idealist, however. claiming high ground on realism is is popular with pessimists, and i would say you and the zander fit the bill eagerly. while i recognize negative realities, pessimism is realized by following the implications of these realities through to the most negative repercussions, be it zander's total meltdown or your contention that the administration does not care about the recovery of the US economy. what brand of realism is that, fox?

Seeing a situation for what it is requires a realistic approach.

An optimistic outlook believes there are solutions for the situation, no matter how bad it is; i.e. the possibility of an anecdote for every poison.

Optimism does not require that one pretend the situation is better than it is. To do so is to be arrogant, ignorant, dishonest or stupid.

Did I say the Administration does not care about the recovery of the U.S. Economy? If I said that, it was inadvertent. I do think that the economy is low on the list of priorities however.


If it was a priority, the Administration would stop doing those things the experts are telling them are slowing or blocking the recovery. It would not continue to keep doing things that almost all intelligent Americans oppose and forcing policy and programs on the people that they do not want even as hundreds of thousands of Americans continue to lose their jobs every week.

If it was a priority, the Administration would have taken steps to correct the problems that created the current mess, but it keeps putting band-aids on this or that while addressing almost none of the key issues that brought us to our knees by late 2008.

If it was a priority, the Administration would be focused on that and not focused on mortgaging our future for generations for illusionary projects that are billed to come to fruition years on down the road.

So either the Administration doesn't care about it or they are too arrogant, ignorant, dishonest, or stupid to do anything constructive about it.

 

[antagon]

i would just say its a matter of optimism and pessimism. there is ammo for both ends to cite, because we are in a recovery, but a bad one. Fox, i'm sure, absolutely certain that your analysis of political alignment applies, however, it clearly applies to those who are eager to declare our economy down for the count, too. the pessimists.

be it neubarth or his replacement, zander, the die-hard pessimists refuse to support their claims of government-led economic ruin - clearly in the political realm which you've described. alternatively, i would like to count myself among those whose impression of the economy is based on observations of of its health from stats, study, and feedback i get from my participation in it. this participation is centered, admittedly, on self. all of my net worth is at play in US and US-dependent economies, and seeing some rise in its value or its returns, does illicit some optimism on my part. i don't attribute much of that to obama at all.

then again, i'm always an optimist; its just worked out to well for me as a mindset.

Once again you are attempting to put words in my mouth. I am not a pessimist. I am a realist.

well, i say that you are well within the confines of the converse, but that's just our differences of opinion.

I believe we are facing 4 large structural changes in our economy - higher volatility, lower trend growth, higher levels of structural unemployment, and an explosion of debt to GDP.

We have recently seen the highest volatility in the last forty years across leading indicators. Look at this chart of the LEI

Higher volatility makes the possibility of more frequent recessions more likely. If you think this is a positive development, good for you.

Then we have lower growth. The 12-quarter rolling average of Nominal GDP growth has been on a steady decline for 2 decades and there is nothing to indicate this trend will change. Is this a positive sign for the economy? I don't think so, but you are free to draw your own conclusions.

ill give you the concern over projected volatility, however, i would characterize business cycles since the early 90s to be broad and the contractions shallow. this recession is in many ways an adjustment for the public and private credit used to affect that. with both of these sources of credit imperiled, crippled even, the economy may, indeed behave more like the early eighties, with high demonstrated volatility. the labor force as we know it will be the biggest victim of a weak and erratic (dare i say) recovery in the next 5 years.

if you're looking to depress yourself, you could choose to look at developed nations in terms of the growth of gross productivity, however, analyzing them seriously, and with a clue, one would look to the per-capita figures. developed economies are instruments of quality, rather than quality, that is economic efficiency, rather than gross production values which ethiopia and china eat up. we are not these economies or anything like them. do you mean to say that we should target gross productivity and willfully digress to a labor-intensive manufacture economy, instead of a consumer-intensive money-mill?

Then we have the unemployment problem. The average time of unemployment has sharply increased from less than 20 weeks only 2 years ago to over 30 weeks now – a 50% increase.

recession.

Those unemployed for shorter lengths of time now make up much less of the total than they used to. Instead, the majority of unemployed workers is comprised of those in a chronic state of joblessness. Is this a good sign? Not for me, but I am a realist, not an optimist.

masses of unemployment don't amount to good signs, even for an optimist. i think this is the biggest drag on the economy, casting a shadow on others. other factors are all dependent on the improvement of the employment outlook.

inevitably, jobs lost in the last couple years will never come back. i think we'll have half of the jobs we have now in a matter of a decade or so. this will either be fewer employed or a further reduction of the hours which account for our incomes. every recession since the late 70s has permanently reshaped the nature of the workforce, lopping off hours and workers, never to return. the challenge for economies like ours is to manage this gracefully and innovatively. welfare, pseudo-disability and prison, the current solutions, dont fit that shoe.

Then we have the soon to be realized effects of massive government spending and the national debt projected to exceed GDP in a few years. Do you think the US can keep interest rates artificially low forever? I doubt it. When the rates start to rise what do yo think will happen?

the debt is a mess. i contend that it is not the linchpin factor which you make it out to be, or a dire near-term threat, but it is a liability which will have to be dealt with through tax, inflation and austerity over the next decade. economic growth will have to persist, despite that, presenting quite the challenge. i think the fed rates could be relaxed in a non-volatile way. i dont put malpractice beyond the fed, but it would require that to stumble tragically with respect to rate/monetary policy from their end.

i anticipate the government cooling the borrowing voracity in the next year or two as well. your realism will come by way of a shift back to more tax-based fiscal policy, i predict.
no matter what, but certainly if the GOP can get back on its horse, the austerity needed to address the debt could begin sooner rather than later.

 

[antagon]

The fact that even the administration projects huges deficits as far as the eye can see suggests they don't believe any recovery is imminent, nor do they care.

everyone's entitled to their impression of their own outlook. all that is subjective and relative, anyhow.

Seeing a situation for what it is requires a realistic approach.

An optimistic outlook believes there are solutions for the situation, no matter how bad it is; i.e. the possibility of an anecdote for every poison.

Optimism does not require that one pretend the situation is better than it is. To do so is to be arrogant, ignorant, dishonest or stupid.

Did I say the Administration does not care about the recovery of the U.S. Economy? If I said that, it was inadvertent. I do think that the economy is low on the list of priorities however.


If it was a priority, the Administration would stop doing those things the experts are telling them are slowing or blocking the recovery. It would not continue to keep doing things that almost all intelligent Americans oppose and forcing policy and programs on the people that they do not want even as hundreds of thousands of Americans continue to lose their jobs every week.

If it was a priority, the Administration would have taken steps to correct the problems that created the current mess, but it keeps putting band-aids on this or that while addressing almost none of the key issues that brought us to our knees by late 2008.

If it was a priority, the Administration would be focused on that and not focused on mortgaging our future for generations for illusionary projects that are billed to come to fruition years on down the road.

So either the Administration doesn't care about it or they are too arrogant, ignorant, dishonest, or stupid to do anything constructive about it.

sometimes there's not an antidote to the poison; that's life (or death). beyond optimism, it might be perseverance which is valued in the light of an easy, negative prognosis.

i still see life through my highschool gridiron in ways. when i got the ball, i aimed for little patches of green that would get me 4 yards out of the backfield. in splits of a second, a runningback assesses which green patches are growing and shrinking, decides to stick his head in one and keeps his legs pumping. when it came to films, we looked for the opportunities which our opponent left us in the same way. we didn't marvel at our opponents, nor focus on their jerseys swarming when the ball was in hand. my senior year we never lost, either.

optimism isnt a giddy supposition about scoring on every play or having an easy ride. it is about staying in the game, and looking for the opportunities to get ahead as they are presented.

in this recovery, as i've had to with my humble enterprises in the last 4 years, it will be important to look to what the market offers, and invest time and effort accordingly. conversely, some of my buddies at the chamber and the development agency have folded up their companies for various reasons related to a lack of will or wherewithal to do so, often times they earned my badge of pessimism - you simply can't have money and time riding on a bet you think is a loser. not day in and day out.

that is what america needs right now: a brand of optimism which seeks to identify the progressing sectors of the economy and the marketshare left on the table by some of the recession's casualties, and put money, power and time behind them.

back to economics. i think 'band-aids' like extending unemployment and bailing out some of our firms and banks, even as recklessly as it had been done, has not merely relieved the pains of the economy and the electorate, but bridged a demand and credit void which would have made situations far worse. depression worse. perhaps looking to find ways to criticize policy, without appreciating the value which they've been aimed to affect, comprises the sort of pessimism i'm appraising, and that which sways your conclusions to such a negative 'reality'

 

[Foxfyre]

Sorry Antagon, but an eternal optimist such as myself doesn't accept there is no antidote for the poison. They only accept that it hasn't been discovered yet. And a realist considers it prudent to take the antidote we know will help rather than wait on some better one to be invented.

And of course those who have been beneficiaries of all the hundreds of billions thrown at the problem to date feel better off.

But I deal with those on a daily basis who are still living with frozen credit that we were promised would be unfrozen by TARP.

Some are dealing with joblessness that has dragged on for months and months now with no end of that tunnel in sight.

And some struggle to keep the business afloat and give employees some relief by cutting salaries and benefits along with layoffs.

And some are looking at the next wave of foreclosures that looms as we speak.

And when you think of what the Administration COULD have done with the TARP monies to provide real relief for everyday people and not just their union cronies and others they had to pay back. When you think of how that could have plugged deficits in a way to free up credit.

When you think of how much a modest across the board tax relief for business could have allowed them to start hiring again or restoring reduced wages.

When you think of how much keeping the Bush tax relief in place would have provided incentive for a bit of risk taking again. . . .

When you think of how much help, encouragement, and reinforcement it would have given all the people if the Administration had shelved big, expensive, unaffordable projects and had rather cut expense, pulled in their horns, and pulled side by the side with the people who would be encouraged that the dollar was strengthened and the deficits were not spiraling out of control. . . .

The band-aids did nothing for anybody other than a few folks the Administration had targeted for payback

And that is the reality we are living with.

 

[antagon]

i like the antidote thing, fox, but i think im a pragmatic optimist, rather than eternal. i've cut losses before in a variety of circumstances, so as long as quitting is a viable antidote, i would agree with you. bad policies, business plans, equipment and politicians can and should be quit sometimes.

there's a variety of policy opinions we could discuss. i just wouldn't do so by way of optimism or pessimism alone. TARP and fed asset acquisitions have supported the economy in ways which i dont think can be written off while keeping in line with reality. i couldn't mention it without the recklessness and cronyism which came along with them either.

tax relief is not as instantaneous as cash expenditure, and does not target areas of need in a business for the short term. i mean revenue by that. depending on the type, depth and duration of tax relief, they could obviously have some benefit. i'd argue that tax cuts are so played out at this point, that the returns have diminished beyond serious consideration. bolstering structural giveaways with our debt as it is is ill-advised, furthermore, much like your criticism of the healthcare bill.

 

[Foxfyre]

But we sure as hell don't have to keep threatening raising taxes or imposing expensive mandates, etc. etc. etc. on businesses that are already reeling. How stupid is that?

And if they don't have to fear their taxes going up significantly next year, they might just be able to hire a few more folks. And if they don't have to worry about a bunch of expensive mandates kicking in on healthcare or whatever, they might go ahead and start an expansion.

Everything the Administration has been doing--and I do mean just about everything--has been anti-business and a drag on the economy.

An realist sees the situation as it is.
And an optimist knows we could be doing a hell of a lot better than that if we had a real executive, leader, and manager in the Oval Office instead of an activist politician.

 

[antagon]

i dont think that's how businesses think about tax, fox. to much CATO institute in your diet. presuming that tax plays this role in the economy would make everyone driving policy in the US look stupid. but that's not reality, buddy.

hiring and firing have to do with demand. i'm picking back up a guy who i've not had work for me since november. but this is because of demand providing a choice between letting my competition eat up business and me eating it up myself.. nothing about a tax break is involved in this. a prudent businessperson will likely test the waters with his current resources, especially labor resources, and then hire out of a perceived need. not on a whim that taxes would be lower. that thinking is not as smart as you think.

"Everything the Administration has been doing--and I do mean just about everything--has been anti-business and a drag on the economy."


again, i think that there's method to the all the actions which this or any american government has ever taken with respect to the economy. dismissing the actions of this government as anti-business and a drag across the board is where my idealist label applies. that these actions can't be seen for their positive aims and impacts is where my pessimist label applies. the combination of these two precludes a credible impression of reality. hence, your 'situation as it is' is not quite so.

 

[Foxfyre]

i dont think that's how businesses think about tax, fox. to much CATO institute in your diet. presuming that tax plays this role in the economy would make everyone driving policy in the US look stupid. but that's not reality, buddy.

hiring and firing have to do with demand. i'm picking back up a guy who i've not had work for me since november. but this is because of demand providing a choice between letting my competition eat up business and me eating it up myself.. nothing about a tax break is involved in this. a prudent businessperson will likely test the waters with his current resources, especially labor resources, and then hire out of a perceived need. not on a whim that taxes would be lower. that thinking is not as smart as you think.

"Everything the Administration has been doing--and I do mean just about everything--has been anti-business and a drag on the economy."


again, i think that there's method to the all the actions which this or any american government has ever taken with respect to the economy. dismissing the actions of this government as anti-business and a drag across the board is where my idealist label applies. that these actions can't be seen for their positive aims and impacts is where my pessimist label applies. the combination of these two precludes a credible impression of reality. hence, your 'situation as it is' is not quite so.

Well, running a small business myself and being in a business in which I constantly deal with payroll, hiring, firing, expenses, and business activities of other small businesses, I can assure you from up close and personal experience that business DOES thnk like that. And I would trust CATO to do a competent analysis of the cause and effect of various government policy, including tax policy, more than I trust any other group to do that. They have no dog in the fight, they are not ideologically grounded in any political party, and they lean on very good people to compile the information that they use.

If I needed no other reference for CATO's competence and impartiality, it would be that they piss off the Left and Right equally.

You are correct that hiring and firing has to do with demand, but there is also a human component that many employers look on their employees as family and layoffs are an absolute last resort. Then from a practical standpoint, a good businessman does not want to lose good people if there is any chance that he will need them in the foreseeable future. So business outlook and prognosis is a strong factor in business decisions related to hiring, firing, expansion, investment, and every other aspect of business. And tax policy is a huge factor in all that.