The Sea Level Isn't Rising as Predicted

[elektra]

now that the SEA ICE debate is exhausted and all the links state it is increasing, maybe we should talk about the Polar Ice Cap.

 

[Crick]

I have seen no link that says it is increasing. I have posted several different records (and there are many, many more) that show it has been steadily decreasing.

 

[Crick]

From PIOMAS

PIOMAS
PIOMAS February 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volumegraph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:



Big, big changes this month, and not for the good. Due to extremely high, or maybe I should say non-low temperatures in the Arctic the past month, this new year opens with the smallest monthly volume increase for January in the 2006-2016 record. 2007 saw an increase of 2848 km3, but 2016 goes one better with 2794 km3, in all other years volume went up by more than 3000 km3.

This means that, yet again, current volume has crept closer to the post-2010 years and widened the gap with pre-2010 years. Below the change in difference between January 1st and 31st is shown:



On January 31st 2016 the Arctic has just 104 km3 of sea ice volume than the same date in 2012, the year of the record melting season. The difference with 2013, the year that followed the big melting season, is still 803 km3, but it has gone down by 920 km3 in just the past month. The difference with last year (when two rebound years caused a marked increase in volume) has changed to a whopping 1692 km3. 2016 is still in 4th position, just like last month, but the gap with the top 3 has diminished radically. I could go on. Really big changes.
*********************************************************************************************
Note the short red line (2016, January and February) at the left hand side of this graph

 

[9aces]

Notice the change in slope in the graphs? A one meter rise by 2100 would put most of our coastal cities in trouble. A two meter rise would be catastrophic.

I used the 2.71 mm/yr trend. Which is less than the 3.3 average it was for a period. So yes I did notice the change....both of them in that last slope increase. You must have missed that.

1 meter = just over 3 feet. Which will take 400 years to happen assuming that held true, which there's zero reason to believe it will hold true, get higher, or lower. Quite simply because any estimate is a WAG.

2 meters = 800 years. Hence my 1000 year statement.

Sort of puts things in perspective, instead of running around like chicken little screaming the sky is falling.

 

[9aces]

Oh wow....even by your most optimistic numbers there, the sea has risen a whole 200mm in the last 120 years. 200 sounds like a lot, until you realize that's 7.8 inches.

If you go with the trending of 2.71 mm/year....you get a whopping 10.7 more INCHES over the next 100 years. That's assuming it stays that high, which is laughable to suggest there's even the most remote capability to estimate that with any measure of reliability.

A very far cry indeed from the 10-20 FEET some of your idiots have been predicting will happen in the next decade.

At this rate maybe in a 1000 years this will be a problem. By then hopefully they'll have some clue how climate/weather really works. Right now it's a whole lot of WAG.

So, we see you've never had a class in even rudimentary calculus.

We went from 0.6mm/yr to 3.3mm/yr in one century. In the next century, since the world tends to look to idiots like you to affirm their cowardice and ignorance, that rate should rise to (3.3/0.6)*3.3mm/yr, or 18.15mm/yr. Thus at the current rate of acceleration, sea level should rise 85 yrs *((3.3+18.15)/2) = 911.625 mm by the end of this century. That's 2.99 feet, fool.

I've had quite a few classes in calculus. Kinda need the ability to calculate things when you're designing buildings to accept various types of loads and stresses, and I've designed everything I've built in the last 25 years.

You're assuming the acceleration progression is constant and quantifiable. Which it isn't, hell you can't quantify ANYTHING about your numbers and why the rate has accelerated or decelerated (which btw recently you may have noticed it has). Your numbers are nothing more than a WAG. Basing a design in a WAG can work, but it's pure luck if it does.

No decent engineer would ever contemplate it.

 

[9aces]

And that is assuming that one of the grounded Antarctic shelves does not break up.

Indeed. But that's something that will take something far more energetic than anything any of the warmer idiots I've seen have posited thus far.

 

[Crick]

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has already destabilized. The only question is how long it will actually take to crumble into the Southern Ocean. The result will be a rise of nearly 20 feet. Check out

Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet : Abstract : Nature

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1155&context=ers_facpub

Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise | Science

From the last one:

Abstract
Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought.

 

[9aces]

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has already destabilized. The only question is how long it will actually take to crumble into the Southern Ocean. The result will be a rise of nearly 20 feet. Check out

Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet : Abstract : Nature

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1155&context=ers_facpub

Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise | Science

From the last one:

Abstract
Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought.

And what caused that warming 130,000 to 127,000 years ago?

 

[Crick]

That didn't happen 130,000 years ago. It has been happening in modern times and was determined to have irrevocably destabilized by British scientists in 2006.

 

[Crick]

On 12 May 2014, It was announced that two teams of scientists said the long-feared collapse of the Ice Sheet had begun, kicking off what they say will be a centuries-long, "unstoppable" process that could raise sea levels by 1.2 to 3.6 metres (3.9–11.8 ft)[18] They estimate that rapid drawdown of Thwaites Glacier will begin in 200 – 1000 years.[19](Scientific source articles: Rignot et al. 2014 [20] and Joughin et al. 2014.[21]) -- Wikipedia, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

 

[9aces]

On 12 May 2014, It was announced that two teams of scientists said the long-feared collapse of the Ice Sheet had begun, kicking off what they say will be a centuries-long, "unstoppable" process that could raise sea levels by 1.2 to 3.6 metres (3.9–11.8 ft)[18] They estimate that rapid drawdown of Thwaites Glacier will begin in 200 – 1000 years.[19](Scientific source articles: Rignot et al. 2014 [20] and Joughin et al. 2014.[21]) -- Wikipedia, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

So something might happen, in 200-1000 years...but they don't really have any idea whether it will or not......but it might.

 

[Crick]

Do you not understand the words 'irrecoverable" and "unstoppable"? The WAIS is going to crumble into the sea. How long it will take to do so is the question, whether or not it will is not.

 

[Old Rocks]

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has already destabilized. The only question is how long it will actually take to crumble into the Southern Ocean. The result will be a rise of nearly 20 feet. Check out

Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet : Abstract : Nature

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1155&context=ers_facpub

Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise | Science

From the last one:

Abstract
Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought.

And what caused that warming 130,000 to 127,000 years ago?

A CO2 level of 300 ppm. Only 20 PPM above that of 18th century, 100 ppm below that of today. We are simply in uncharted territory with a level of 400+ ppm CO2, and 1800 + ppb CH4. How fast this will affect the cryosphere, permafrost, and clathrates is unknown at this point. Indictations are that we will see affects far sooner than we have previously thought.

 

[flacaltenn]

Oh wow....even by your most optimistic numbers there, the sea has risen a whole 200mm in the last 120 years. 200 sounds like a lot, until you realize that's 7.8 inches.

If you go with the trending of 2.71 mm/year....you get a whopping 10.7 more INCHES over the next 100 years. That's assuming it stays that high, which is laughable to suggest there's even the most remote capability to estimate that with any measure of reliability.

A very far cry indeed from the 10-20 FEET some of your idiots have been predicting will happen in the next decade.

At this rate maybe in a 1000 years this will be a problem. By then hopefully they'll have some clue how climate/weather really works. Right now it's a whole lot of WAG.

So, we see you've never had a class in even rudimentary calculus.

We went from 0.6mm/yr to 3.3mm/yr in one century. In the next century, since the world tends to look to idiots like you to affirm their cowardice and ignorance, that rate should rise to (3.3/0.6)*3.3mm/yr, or 18.15mm/yr. Thus at the current rate of acceleration, sea level should rise 85 yrs *((3.3+18.15)/2) = 911.625 mm by the end of this century. That's 2.99 feet, fool.

Couple of observations.

1) More than 1/2 of the rate of rise is NOT NEW WATER in the oceans. But a combo of temperature expansion and geo fiddling..

2) The difference between satellite data and tide gauge data is STILL largely unresolved. You cannot DISCOUNT the tide gauge data until you harmonize the 2 records to everyones' satisfaction. The sat data has more open ocean coverage. And this could largely be weather effects and/or currents.

3) Forget the algebra -- your premise that past history is a guarantee of future performance sucks.. So stay away from day trading for cripes sake.. And for the record -- you NEED an integral in that estimate. Averaging the 2 really doesn't work anyways..

 

[flacaltenn]

Do you not understand the words 'irrecoverable" and "unstoppable"? The WAIS is going to crumble into the sea. How long it will take to do so is the question, whether or not it will is not.

It may do that -- and the CAUSE may be the pressure from NEW ICE moving down the glacier. Which means????
Antarctica is not melting. And the glacial dynamics down there are not well understood. Keep your panties from wadding until they understand the "grounding" part a bit better..

 

[bripat9643]

Notice the change in slope in the graphs? A one meter rise by 2100 would put most of our coastal cities in trouble. A two meter rise would be catastrophic.

You mean people wouldn't be able to move 3 feet up the beach in 100 years? That means they are thousands of times slower than the ordinary garden snail.

 

[OnePercenter]

Oh wow....even by your most optimistic numbers there, the sea has risen a whole 200mm in the last 120 years. 200 sounds like a lot, until you realize that's 7.8 inches.

If you go with the trending of 2.71 mm/year....you get a whopping 10.7 more INCHES over the next 100 years. That's assuming it stays that high, which is laughable to suggest there's even the most remote capability to estimate that with any measure of reliability.

A very far cry indeed from the 10-20 FEET some of your idiots have been predicting will happen in the next decade.

At this rate maybe in a 1000 years this will be a problem. By then hopefully they'll have some clue how climate/weather really works. Right now it's a whole lot of WAG.

I'll bet if you were wealthy enough to afford beach front property you'd be concerned.

 

[Crick]

I'll bet if he had an actual understanding of what's happening, he'd be concerned no matter where he lives. If you think this is only going to affect people on the coasts, you're not thinking. What do you think it's going to COST? Where do you think that money is going to come from? Where do you think all those people and their supporting infrastructure are going to GO?

My property has an elevation of slightly more then 7 feet above sea level. My wife and I have instructed our children to sell it upon our death and to never buy property less than one hundred feet above sea level for the rest of their lives.

 

[xband]

The last time I was on Midway Island was in 1974 and is only a few feet above sea level with gooney birds nesting in abundance. Check and see if the gooney birds moved off Midway Island for the definitive proof.

 

[Crick]

I've got a better idea. Check with the world's leading experts on GLOBAL (vice one tiny point) sea level change: the University of Colorado Sea Level Lab