The Sea Level Isn't Rising as Predicted

[xband]

I'll bet if he had an actual understanding of what's happening, he'd be concerned no matter where he lives. If you think this is only going to affect people on the coasts, you're not thinking. What do you think it's going to COST? Where do you think that money is going to come from? Where do you think all those people and their supporting infrastructure are going to GO?

My property has an elevation of slightly more then 7 feet above sea level. My wife and I have instructed our children to sell it upon our death and to never buy property less than one hundred feet above sea level for the rest of their lives.

The second law of thermo states that heat always moves to cold and never vice versa.on the macro scale but the third law of thermo contradicts the second law of thermo on the micro scale. What we need is a grand unified thermo law to tie it all together.

 

[eagle1462010]

 

[elektra]

I do not see any proof in this thread that the sea level is rising at all

 

[9aces]

Do you not understand the words 'irrecoverable" and "unstoppable"? The WAIS is going to crumble into the sea. How long it will take to do so is the question, whether or not it will is not.

I understand them just fine. I also understand the person saying those words is making a WAG. You should understand they're basing that hilarious prediction on forces that have not happened yet.

 

[9aces]

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has already destabilized. The only question is how long it will actually take to crumble into the Southern Ocean. The result will be a rise of nearly 20 feet. Check out

Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet : Abstract : Nature

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1155&context=ers_facpub

Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise | Science

From the last one:

Abstract
Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought.

And what caused that warming 130,000 to 127,000 years ago?

A CO2 level of 300 ppm. Only 20 PPM above that of 18th century, 100 ppm below that of today. We are simply in uncharted territory with a level of 400+ ppm CO2, and 1800 + ppb CH4. How fast this will affect the cryosphere, permafrost, and clathrates is unknown at this point. Indictations are that we will see affects far sooner than we have previously thought.

Oh? Well it seems you're wrong about that. Or did you miss in the Mesozoic about 146 million years ago or so where CO2 levels were much higher, coinciding with a drastic drop in temperature. Or at the beginning of the Silurian Period.

 

[9aces]

Oh wow....even by your most optimistic numbers there, the sea has risen a whole 200mm in the last 120 years. 200 sounds like a lot, until you realize that's 7.8 inches.

If you go with the trending of 2.71 mm/year....you get a whopping 10.7 more INCHES over the next 100 years. That's assuming it stays that high, which is laughable to suggest there's even the most remote capability to estimate that with any measure of reliability.

A very far cry indeed from the 10-20 FEET some of your idiots have been predicting will happen in the next decade.

At this rate maybe in a 1000 years this will be a problem. By then hopefully they'll have some clue how climate/weather really works. Right now it's a whole lot of WAG.

I'll bet if you were wealthy enough to afford beach front property you'd be concerned.

I am. Lakefront is good enough for me though.

If my Lakefront was on the beach, I wouldn't be worried.

 

[9aces]

I'll bet if he had an actual understanding of what's happening, he'd be concerned no matter where he lives. If you think this is only going to affect people on the coasts, you're not thinking. What do you think it's going to COST? Where do you think that money is going to come from? Where do you think all those people and their supporting infrastructure are going to GO?

My property has an elevation of slightly more then 7 feet above sea level. My wife and I have instructed our children to sell it upon our death and to never buy property less than one hundred feet above sea level for the rest of their lives.

I think that IF we see that sea level rise over 1000 years, then we have 1000 years to pay for said cost. Not trying to throw trillions of dollars at it now, when you simply put have no clue as to the impact. You're selling panic...and panic's a mighty poor commodity.

Good for you if you believe your kids should sell. Someone will probably buy it, tell me where it's at and I'll tell my grandkids to talk up how the oceans are going to be rising and they should sell it for cheap.

 

[9aces]

The last time I was on Midway Island was in 1974 and is only a few feet above sea level with gooney birds nesting in abundance. Check and see if the gooney birds moved off Midway Island for the definitive proof.

They're still there. About a half million or so of them.

 

[9aces]

I do not see any proof in this thread that the sea level is rising at all

It has, about 8 inches over the last 150 years or so according to their data. While I'm not sure that data is even remotely correct, I'll accept that amount because it illustrates how laughable their sky is falling mentality is.

 

[longknife]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

 

[Old Rocks]

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has already destabilized. The only question is how long it will actually take to crumble into the Southern Ocean. The result will be a rise of nearly 20 feet. Check out

Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet : Abstract : Nature

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1155&context=ers_facpub

Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise | Science

From the last one:

Abstract
Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought.

And what caused that warming 130,000 to 127,000 years ago?

A CO2 level of 300 ppm. Only 20 PPM above that of 18th century, 100 ppm below that of today. We are simply in uncharted territory with a level of 400+ ppm CO2, and 1800 + ppb CH4. How fast this will affect the cryosphere, permafrost, and clathrates is unknown at this point. Indictations are that we will see affects far sooner than we have previously thought.

Oh? Well it seems you're wrong about that. Or did you miss in the Mesozoic about 146 million years ago or so where CO2 levels were much higher, coinciding with a drastic drop in temperature. Or at the beginning of the Silurian Period.

What on Earth are you prattling about? First, you ask what caused the warming during the last interglacial. And I answered. Then you start yapping about the CO2 level 146 million years ago. With absolutely nothing to back up a single statement you have made.

What is happening today is happening at a speed that exceeds the delta V of the changes that occurred during the major extinction events.

Extinction and Climate

Species can adapt to gradual changes in their environment through evolution, but climate change often moves too quickly for them to do so. It’s not the absolute temperature, then, but the rate of change that matters. Woolly mammoths and saber-toothed tigers thrived during the Ice Ages, but if the world were to shift back to that climate overnight, we would be in trouble.

Put simply, if climate change is large enough, quick enough, and on a global scale, it can be the perfect ingredient for a mass extinction. This is worrying, as we are currently at the crux of a potentially devastating period of global warming, one that we are causing. Will our actions cause a mass extinction a few centuries down the line? We can’t tell the future of evolution, but we can look at the past for reference points.

There have been five major extinction events in the Earth’s history, which biologists refer to as “The Big Five”. The Ordovician-Silurian, Late Devonian, Permian-Triassic, Late Triassic, Cretaceous-Tertiary…they’re a bit of a mouthful, but all five happened before humans were around, and all five are associated with climate change. Let’s look at a few examples.

 

[elektra]

I do not see any proof in this thread that the sea level is rising at all

It has, about 8 inches over the last 150 years or so according to their data. While I'm not sure that data is even remotely correct, I'll accept that amount because it illustrates how laughable their sky is falling mentality is.

You may not realize it yet but there is a ton of thought put into my simplest posts, I am literally baiting the folks when I put this stuff out here. If I post it I got some great stuff to back it up.

 

[elektra]

Extinction and Climate

This is worrying, as we are currently at the crux of a potentially devastating period of global warming, one that we are causing.

Old Crock, you are hilarious. Old Crock screams, "the sky is falling", and posts a link to a story from 5 years ago, and I mean STORY.

From Old Crock's link, now does this not sound like the beginning of a great story. There goes the idiots theory of evolution. Yea, life does not change, but life does adapt, that is why there is still like on earth, take birds Old Crock, they actually fly away when the climate changes, the fly south.

Life on Earth does not enjoy change

Yes birds migrating, it is so easy for them to fly south when the climate changes from summer to winter but they will never adapt to the tiny imperceptible change the great scientists claim is happening right now.

Every aspect of an organism’s life depends on climate, so if that variable changes, everything else changes too – the availability of food and water, the timing of migration or hibernation, even the ability of bodily systems to keep running.

Species can adapt to gradual changes in their environment through evolution, but climate change often moves too quickly for them to do so.

Winter comes much faster then any change in climate? This guy is a moron.

Thank the almighty Earth God for Wizards and Scientists, they have looked into the past and see the future (but not the ice their ship got stuck in?)

scientists have pieced together a plausible explanation for the Great Dying. It points to a trigger that is quite disturbing, given our current situation – global warming from greenhouse gases.

Our current situation is looking worse by the minute. Not only is the climate changing, but it’s changing in the direction which could be the least favourable to life. We don’t have volcanic activity anywhere near the scale of the Siberian Traps, but we have a source of carbon dioxide that could be just as bad: ourselves. And worst of all, we could prevent much of the coming damage if we wanted to, but political will is disturbingly low.

You fools, we only have one minute to save the World, one minute, no more.

 

[9aces]

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has already destabilized. The only question is how long it will actually take to crumble into the Southern Ocean. The result will be a rise of nearly 20 feet. Check out

Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet : Abstract : Nature

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1155&context=ers_facpub

Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise | Science

From the last one:

Abstract
Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought.

And what caused that warming 130,000 to 127,000 years ago?

A CO2 level of 300 ppm. Only 20 PPM above that of 18th century, 100 ppm below that of today. We are simply in uncharted territory with a level of 400+ ppm CO2, and 1800 + ppb CH4. How fast this will affect the cryosphere, permafrost, and clathrates is unknown at this point. Indictations are that we will see affects far sooner than we have previously thought.

Oh? Well it seems you're wrong about that. Or did you miss in the Mesozoic about 146 million years ago or so where CO2 levels were much higher, coinciding with a drastic drop in temperature. Or at the beginning of the Silurian Period.

What on Earth are you prattling about? First, you ask what caused the warming during the last interglacial. And I answered. Then you start yapping about the CO2 level 146 million years ago. With absolutely nothing to back up a single statement you have made.

What is happening today is happening at a speed that exceeds the delta V of the changes that occurred during the major extinction events.

Extinction and Climate

Species can adapt to gradual changes in their environment through evolution, but climate change often moves too quickly for them to do so. It’s not the absolute temperature, then, but the rate of change that matters. Woolly mammoths and saber-toothed tigers thrived during the Ice Ages, but if the world were to shift back to that climate overnight, we would be in trouble.

Put simply, if climate change is large enough, quick enough, and on a global scale, it can be the perfect ingredient for a mass extinction. This is worrying, as we are currently at the crux of a potentially devastating period of global warming, one that we are causing. Will our actions cause a mass extinction a few centuries down the line? We can’t tell the future of evolution, but we can look at the past for reference points.

There have been five major extinction events in the Earth’s history, which biologists refer to as “The Big Five”. The Ordovician-Silurian, Late Devonian, Permian-Triassic, Late Triassic, Cretaceous-Tertiary…they’re a bit of a mouthful, but all five happened before humans were around, and all five are associated with climate change. Let’s look at a few examples.

What....you haven't bothered to look and notice there isn't a relationship historically between CO2 levels and warming trends? I thought you said you knew this stuff.

I already knew what has been supposed about the Younger Dryas. That wasn't the question I asked if you'd bothered to read it.

What is happening today obviously does not exceed the delta V of the changes that occurred during the major extinction events. If it did....there would already be mass upheaval.

There isn't. Or did you miss the Younger Dryas happened within the space of a few decades.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

^ Guam, still a DENIER!!!! after all these years

 

[jc456]

Do you not understand the words 'irrecoverable" and "unstoppable"? The WAIS is going to crumble into the sea. How long it will take to do so is the question, whether or not it will is not.

Based on what?

 

[jc456]

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has already destabilized. The only question is how long it will actually take to crumble into the Southern Ocean. The result will be a rise of nearly 20 feet. Check out

Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet : Abstract : Nature

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse

http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1155&context=ers_facpub

Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise | Science

From the last one:

Abstract
Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought.

And what caused that warming 130,000 to 127,000 years ago?

A CO2 level of 300 ppm. Only 20 PPM above that of 18th century, 100 ppm below that of today. We are simply in uncharted territory with a level of 400+ ppm CO2, and 1800 + ppb CH4. How fast this will affect the cryosphere, permafrost, and clathrates is unknown at this point. Indictations are that we will see affects far sooner than we have previously thought.

So it is your argument that CO2 would never recover from the ice age back to the thousands prior? Why?

 

[mamooth]

This just out, Kopp et al (2016), confirming sea-levels are now rising the fastest they have since the tail end of the last ice age.

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
---
We present the first, to our knowledge, estimate of global sea-level (GSL) change over the last ∼3,000 years that is based upon statistical synthesis of a global database of regional sea-level reconstructions. GSL varied by ∼±8 cm over the pre-Industrial Common Era, with a notable decline over 1000–1400 CE coinciding with ∼0.2 °C of global cooling. The 20th century rise was extremely likely faster than during any of the 27 previous centuries.
---

 

[9aces]

This just out, Kopp et al (2016), confirming sea-levels are now rising the fastest they have since the tail end of the last ice age.

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
---
We present the first, to our knowledge, estimate of global sea-level (GSL) change over the last ∼3,000 years that is based upon statistical synthesis of a global database of regional sea-level reconstructions. GSL varied by ∼±8 cm over the pre-Industrial Common Era, with a notable decline over 1000–1400 CE coinciding with ∼0.2 °C of global cooling. The 20th century rise was extremely likely faster than during any of the 27 previous centuries.
---

When did the 20th century end?

 

[mamooth]

What's the purpose of that stupid question?

Here's the graph updated to the present time. Yep, it's ... yet another hockey stick.