Ukraine guerilla war

[Otis Mayfield]

As open as Ukraine is, it's perfect terrain for tanks and aircraft, unlike jungles and mountainous regions. Russia has lots of tanks and aircraft.

So, Ukraine is bound to lose and war with Russia.

I assume Ukraine will launch a guerilla war against Russian forces occupying Ukraine. Maybe even some operations in Russia itself. Blowing up trains. Sniping enemies, etc.

I assume Ukraine will have support of its people for such a guerilla conflict. They won't report on guerilla troop movements, and they'll hide guerillas.

Do you think Russia will have what it takes to counter such a guerilla conflict? Mass hangings of dozens of civilians? Slaughter of whole villages, etc?

How do you think a Ukrainian guerilla war would turn out?

 

[odanny]

Well, lets not forget that Russian separatists already act as a paramilitary force in the Crimean region that Russia has already occupied. I see more a civil war scenario, much like conservatives here support Trump slavishly and will fight for him no matter what actions he would take (including throwing out an election result that he lost) I think there are a percentage of Ukrainians who would do the same (although I'm guessing they are far less than the nationalists)

I don't think Russians would carry out harsh reprisals against civilians, they will instead target the leaders, intellectuals, and so on with assassination.

 

[Silver Cat]

I think, that guerilla war in Ukraine or Russia herself is hardly possible, especially if Russia won't bite more than can chew. In the modern hi-tech world guerilla war isn't possible without significant and easy detectable support of another hi-tech state, which will cause actions against this state. I'm pretty sure, that Biden (or anybody else) don't want really massive cyber- and terroristic attacks in the USA.

 

[Otis Mayfield]

I think, that guerilla war in Ukraine or Russia herself is hardly possible, especially if Russia won't bite more than can chew. In the modern hi-tech world guerilla war isn't possible without significant and easy detectable support of another hi-tech state, which will cause actions against this state. I'm pretty sure, that Biden (or anybody else) don't want really massive cyber- and terroristic attacks in the USA.

You don't think that Ukrainian guerillas who look like Russians and speak, some identically to Russians, couldn't infiltrate Russia and blow up some train tracks or oil wells?

There are lots of Ukrainian nationals living and working in Russia. They don't even have to cross the border.

 

[Silver Cat]

You don't think that Ukrainian guerillas who look like Russians and speak, some identically to Russians, couldn't infiltrate Russia and blow up some train tracks or oil wells?

There are lots of Ukrainian nationals living and working in Russia. They don't even have to cross the border.

Yes, they live there. But in last ten years FSB prevented more than 700 terroristic acts, and few didn't. For example, in December they captured 106 terrorists from M.K.U.

В России выявили более сотни готовивших теракты украинских неонацистов

В 37 регионах России выявили сразу 106 неонацистов из украинской "М.К.У.", готовившей теракты и массовые убийства, сообщили в ФСБ. РИА Новости, 13.12.2021

ria.ru

Typical terroristic organisation, without really good support of a hi-tech state, can't hide itself from counter-terrorists.

 

[Otis Mayfield]

Yes, they live there. But in last ten years FSB prevented more than 700 terroristic acts, and few didn't. For example, in December they captured 106 terrorists from M.K.U.

В России выявили более сотни готовивших теракты украинских неонацистов

В 37 регионах России выявили сразу 106 неонацистов из украинской "М.К.У.", готовившей теракты и массовые убийства, сообщили в ФСБ. РИА Новости, 13.12.2021

ria.ru

Typical terroristic organisation, without really good support of a hi-tech state, can't hide itself from counter-terrorists.

How could a high-tech state do anything to hide people from the FSB/KGB?

 

[Silver Cat]

How could a high-tech state do anything to hide people from the FSB/KGB?

There are many ways. To hack KGB/FSB databases, to create fake identies, to supply terrorists with actual information, to give them encypted communication systems, etc...

 

[Otis Mayfield]

There are many ways. To hack KGB/FSB databases, to create fake identies, to supply terrorists with actual information, to give them encypted communication systems, etc...

Too complex.

Four Ukrainian guys, who look and talk like Russians, walking across the Russian border, buying some high explosives off the black market, taking the train to Siberia and blowing up some oil wells seems much easier and simpler.

 

[Silver Cat]

Too complex.

Four Ukrainian guys, who look and talk like Russians, walking across the Russian border, buying some high explosives off the black market, taking the train to Siberia and blowing up some oil wells seems much easier and simpler.

First. Those guys must be under somebody's control, hired by SBU or somebody. If there are Russian infiltrators in SBU (and they are) - ok, FSB already have the information about them. It's not that easy to buy high explosives off the black market, especially in Russia. They started to search a seller - they are under FSB control. To came in train with high-explosives - it's the simplest way to be arrested by the transport police. The attack against even one well guarded oil well in Syberia... Ok, it's not the thing, that simple guys without really good training can do.
What is even more important - it will be a suicide mission and exchange four well-trained saboteurs for one oil well... Its just stupid.

 

[Otis Mayfield]

First. Those guys must be under somebody's control, hired by SBU or somebody. If there are Russian infiltrators in SBU (and they are) - ok, FSB already have the information about them. It's not that easy to buy high explosives off the black market, especially in Russia. They started to search a seller - they are under FSB control. To came in train with high-explosives - it's the simplest way to be arrested by the transport police. The attack against even one well guarded oil well in Syberia... Ok, it's not the thing, that simple guys without really good training can do.
What is even more important - it will be a suicide mission and exchange four well-trained saboteurs for one oil well... Its just stupid.

A pipeline then.

Pipelines are easier to target than oilwells because they're so long.

Also, it would disrupt a huge section of Russia's economy.

 

[Augustine_]

I think, that guerilla war in Ukraine or Russia herself is hardly possible, especially if Russia won't bite more than can chew. In the modern hi-tech world guerilla war isn't possible without significant and easy detectable support of another hi-tech state, which will cause actions against this state. I'm pretty sure, that Biden (or anybody else) don't want really massive cyber- and terroristic attacks in the USA.

Depends on if the MIC thinks there's money to be made or not

 

[Silver Cat]

A pipeline then.

Pipelines are easier to target than oilwells because they're so long.

Also, it would disrupt a huge section of Russia's economy.

It's quite difficult, too.
But the first question is the question of the motivation. Why those guys decided not to join Army and actually kill the Russian invaders and pro-Russian separatist? And why Ukrainian state (or it's secret services) decided to attack Russian pipelines, and do not blast their own nuclear plants? 15 Chernobyls is a quite nice deterrence factor, isn't it?

 

[White 6]

As open as Ukraine is, it's perfect for tanks and aircraft. Unlike jungles and mountainous regions. Russia has lots of tanks and aircraft.

So, Ukraine is bound to lose and war with Russia.

I assume Ukraine will launch a guerilla war against Russian forces occupying Ukraine. Maybe even some operations in Russia itself. Blowing up trains. Sniping enemies, etc.

I assume Ukraine will have support of its people for such a guerilla conflict. They won't report on guerilla troop movements, and they'll hide guerillas.

Do you think Russia will have what it takes to counter such a guerilla conflict? Mass hangings of dozens of civilians? Slaughter of whole villages, etc?

How do you think a Ukrainian guerilla war would turn out?

I don't know. But it is a tactic/strategy, I would use. It is old, dating back to Sun Tzu, and has been effective. I wish them luck.

 

[Otis Mayfield]

It's quite difficult, too.
But the first question is the question of the motivation. Why those guys decided not to join Army and actually kill the Russian invaders and pro-Russian separatist? And why Ukrainian state (or it's secret services) decided to attack Russian pipelines, and do not blast their own nuclear plants? 15 Chernobyls is a quite nice deterrence factor, isn't it?

Are you Russian?

 

[Silver Cat]

Are you Russian?

My grandmother was Polish and I know Russian language. Why?

 

[Litwin]

How do you think a Ukrainian guerilla war would turn out?

it´d lead to collapse of Moscow ulus

 

[Otis Mayfield]

My grandmother was Polish and I know Russian language. Why?

You seem really pro Russian.

 

[Litwin]

You seem really pro Russian.

he is posting from Olgino ( Internet Research Agency Ltd.) , a paid troll

Inside the Russian Troll Factory: Zombies and a Breakneck Pace (Published 2018)

Ex-employees of the Internet Research Agency, which was indicted last week over meddling in the 2016 election, described their often bizarre work lives.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Litwin]

Are you Russian?

yes , he is

 

[Silver Cat]

You seem really pro Russian.

Actually, I'm pro American. And the best way to be patriotic is to be, at least, realistic.
And the shizophrenic mantras about "evil barbaric afro asiatic hordes" are just stupid.