Unemployment Rate Surges To Highest Since 2011 - Gallup Polling

Geaux4it

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May 31, 2009
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Unemployment Rate Surges To Highest Since 2011 - Gallup Polling | Zero Hedge

With ADP out of the way, and providing no guidance to an extreme NFP print one way or another, we once again turn to Gallup. As a reminder, a few days ago we showed that things are bad and getting worse for America's job prospects following direct polling land as relates to unemployment on a seasonally unadjusted basis. Today, the polling group has released its seasonally adjusted unemployment number and how it compares to the BLS' own estimation of the labor market. In a word: it is not pretty (which, again, is good for those who are hoping and praying St. Ben will keep the monetary Kool Aid running for a little bit longer): at 8.6% it is over 1% higher than the BLS' reported print, and is the highest since the end of 2011.
 
Unemployment Rate Surges To Highest Since 2011 - Gallup Polling | Zero Hedge

With ADP out of the way, and providing no guidance to an extreme NFP print one way or another, we once again turn to Gallup. As a reminder, a few days ago we showed that things are bad and getting worse for America's job prospects following direct polling land as relates to unemployment on a seasonally unadjusted basis. Today, the polling group has released its seasonally adjusted unemployment number and how it compares to the BLS' own estimation of the labor market. In a word: it is not pretty (which, again, is good for those who are hoping and praying St. Ben will keep the monetary Kool Aid running for a little bit longer): at 8.6% it is over 1% higher than the BLS' reported print, and is the highest since the end of 2011.
Gallup is not very accurate...sample is too small and since it's random digit dialing, subject to large statistical bias. We'll see the real rate tomorrow
 
Unemployment Rate Surges To Highest Since 2011 - Gallup Polling | Zero Hedge

With ADP out of the way, and providing no guidance to an extreme NFP print one way or another, we once again turn to Gallup. As a reminder, a few days ago we showed that things are bad and getting worse for America's job prospects following direct polling land as relates to unemployment on a seasonally unadjusted basis. Today, the polling group has released its seasonally adjusted unemployment number and how it compares to the BLS' own estimation of the labor market. In a word: it is not pretty (which, again, is good for those who are hoping and praying St. Ben will keep the monetary Kool Aid running for a little bit longer): at 8.6% it is over 1% higher than the BLS' reported print, and is the highest since the end of 2011.
Gallup is not very accurate...sample is too small and since it's random digit dialing, subject to large statistical bias. We'll see the real rate tomorrow

Um, no we wont. The real rate is not what the gubmit gives us. It does not count the people who are no longer looking for work. But hey, all the part time jobs in America as a result of Obamacare should help those poor saps

-Geaux
 
Unemployment Rate Surges To Highest Since 2011 - Gallup Polling | Zero Hedge

With ADP out of the way, and providing no guidance to an extreme NFP print one way or another, we once again turn to Gallup. As a reminder, a few days ago we showed that things are bad and getting worse for America's job prospects following direct polling land as relates to unemployment on a seasonally unadjusted basis. Today, the polling group has released its seasonally adjusted unemployment number and how it compares to the BLS' own estimation of the labor market. In a word: it is not pretty (which, again, is good for those who are hoping and praying St. Ben will keep the monetary Kool Aid running for a little bit longer): at 8.6% it is over 1% higher than the BLS' reported print, and is the highest since the end of 2011.
Gallup is not very accurate...sample is too small and since it's random digit dialing, subject to large statistical bias. We'll see the real rate tomorrow

Um, no we wont. The real rate is not what the gubmit gives us. It does not count the people who are no longer looking for work. But hey, all the part time jobs in America as a result of Obamacare should help those poor saps

-Geaux
I heard recently that something like 75% of jobs created since January are part time.

Jobs Reports: U.S. Turning Into a Part-time Worker Economy

Today, there are 117.7 million full-time jobs (a decline since the start of the recession of four million) while part-time jobs have grown by 2.6 million, to 27.4 million. Simply put, full-time jobs are being replaced by part-time ones.

Durden looked at last week’s BLS report and found something the media totally ignored: Of the nearly one million jobs the economy has created since the first of the year, only 222,000 of them were full-time. Put another way, three out of four jobs created since January 1 have been part-time.
 
Unemployment Rate Surges To Highest Since 2011 - Gallup Polling | Zero Hedge

With ADP out of the way, and providing no guidance to an extreme NFP print one way or another, we once again turn to Gallup. As a reminder, a few days ago we showed that things are bad and getting worse for America's job prospects following direct polling land as relates to unemployment on a seasonally unadjusted basis. Today, the polling group has released its seasonally adjusted unemployment number and how it compares to the BLS' own estimation of the labor market. In a word: it is not pretty (which, again, is good for those who are hoping and praying St. Ben will keep the monetary Kool Aid running for a little bit longer): at 8.6% it is over 1% higher than the BLS' reported print, and is the highest since the end of 2011.
Gallup is not very accurate...sample is too small and since it's random digit dialing, subject to large statistical bias. We'll see the real rate tomorrow

Um, no we wont. The real rate is not what the gubmit gives us. It does not count the people who are no longer looking for work. But hey, all the part time jobs in America as a result of Obamacare should help those poor saps

-Geaux
Gallup doesn't count those not trying to work, either. When measuring how hard it is to get a job in a particular month, it doesn't make sense to include people who weren't't trying to work.
 
Gallup is not very accurate...sample is too small and since it's random digit dialing, subject to large statistical bias. We'll see the real rate tomorrow

Um, no we wont. The real rate is not what the gubmit gives us. It does not count the people who are no longer looking for work. But hey, all the part time jobs in America as a result of Obamacare should help those poor saps

-Geaux
Gallup doesn't count those not trying to work, either. When measuring how hard it is to get a job in a particular month, it doesn't make sense to include people who weren't't trying to work.

It makes sense because the people have given up hope of finding work because there are no jobs.

The Department of Labor does produce a report, Table-15, that does show what the unemployment rate is including those no longer looking for work and combined with the 7.4% feel good statistic, the actual rate is ~doubled at 14%

Table is located here

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

This demographic are what is called 'marginally attached to the labor force'

Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

Once again, this is the real Unemployment number, 14%

The labor participation rate is a dismal 63.4%. The lowest on record since 1979.

Fed official: Improved labor market not as good as jobless rate suggests

Fed official: Improved labor market not as good as jobless rate suggests - Capitol Report - MarketWatch

The chief of the San Francisco Federal Reserve worries that the falling U.S. unemployment rate makes the jobs market look better than it is, although he still thinks that the pace of hiring is on the upswing.

John Williams acknowledged in a speech Wednesday that there’s been a “big exodus of young people and so-called prime-age adults” from the labor force. That’s contributed to a sharp decline in the participation rate to a nearly 30-year low. Read speech.

-Geaux
 
1. Nobody cares about Gallup in financial markets

2. If you want to lose money, read Zero Hedge.
 

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