US Senate Monthly Update: GOP at 62% Chance of Reclaiming Senate

[Hoosier4Liberty]

A slight dip from before, due to Kentucky(McConnell has weak polling and is getting pummeled pretty hard) and Georgia(David Perdue's college comments increase the chance of Paul Broun getting nominated).

Note, I did upgrade the GOP's chances of winning Iowa and Louisiana(Braley's farmer gaffe and Landrieu's 37% approval rating are the reasons for this).

Still, the GOP has a healthy 63% chance of nomination.

As always, I'll share my Excel data for people like RandomVariable to inspect and critique.

Note: One thing I am not doing is tying probabilities together. If one party wins one race, it's more likely to win the others. I don't have this built into my model but I can analyze the circumstances in which the GOP wins a certain number of seats and select based on that criteria what the crucial states are.

Note that the raw data has different values for total # of seats than the top numbers on the chart Excel file. This is because everytime I refresh the raw data Excel file, the numbers keep changing based on probability. So when I copied/pasted the values to a different file, the numbers changed. However, with 16,000 simulations, the overall average for the 2 sets of numbers should be virtually identical(probably within .01 Senate seat).

A more robust explanation of the files and mathematical explanations can be found here:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/337481-gop-has-60-chance-of-taking-back-senate-in-2014-a.html

The last update that I had(in which the GOP chances were slightly higher, but the GA/KY gaffes and issues downgraded it, despite IA/LA adjustments) a 68% for the GPO to take back Senate(note: The title is wrong for the URL).
http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...p-remains-at-58-chance-to-reclaim-senate.html

Enjoy! Comments welcome.

 

[FJO]

As said elsewhere: Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

As said elsewhere: Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Indeed, but it would be equally stupid for Dems to deny the problem.

 

[HenryBHough]

As said elsewhere: Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Indeed, but it would be equally stupid for Dems to deny the problem.

We might consider hoping and (for some) praying that Democrats don't suddenly erupt in intelligence.

 

[JakeStarkey]

GOP at 62% Chance of Reclaiming Senate That's fallen 6% points since early March. Let's stop it at 62.

 

[LeftofLeft]

Forget statistics. It's this simple. The Senate is there for the taking by Republicans. Democrats in the tight races are running from Obama. Liberals have hope, however, because many in the Republican establishment are liberal wanna bees. The want to be adorned and given passes by the media. They will let the media define them and Republicans will assume their position as lapdogs.

 

[OnePercenter]

As said elsewhere: Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Indeed, but it would be equally stupid for Dems to deny the problem.

We might consider hoping and (for some) praying that Democrats don't suddenly erupt in intelligence.

Aren't you a Canadian?

 

[OnePercenter]

Really, really, bad news for the middle class.

 

[HenryBHough]

Aren't you a Canadian?

Not yet.

I do anticipate, however, that if Obama is challenged to return certain parts of America to the original owners that is one possibility. But only one.

 

[OnePercenter]

Aren't you a Canadian?

Not yet.

I do anticipate, however, that if Obama is challenged to return certain parts of America to the original owners that is one possibility. But only one.

I'm all for giving Alaska back to the Russians, and Texas back to Mexico, I've been to both and can say there is no intelligent life in either.

 

[HenryBHough]

The real threat seems more likely to be the loss of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont to Canada - but only if Canada has agates like Putin.

 

[OnePercenter]

The real threat seems more likely to be the loss of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont to Canada - but only if Canada has agates like Putin.

You must speak French.

 

[Black_Label]

Really, really, bad news for the middle class.

Sort of. Even if the GOP takes back the house, they can't get complete filibuster-proof control so the dems will return the favor the GOP has been doing.