eagle1462010
Diamond Member
- May 17, 2013
- 69,319
- 34,352
LOLI AM HOME.......And will the shipping and PRODUCTS BE FREE......nope..............a whole lot of people are going to lose everything they own if this doesn't go quick......H1N1 while not being as transmitable.....was a deadly Flu.....killing a hell of a lot more than this one has...........that's been that way since forever. flu kills 20,000 and that didn't bother you before did it?Bullshit. We’ve endured worse pandemics before, and we didn’t shut down the whole nation.World
We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Opinion contributor
USA TODAY OpinionMarch 21, 2020, 11:30 AM EDT
I am an MIT-trained physicist and complexity scientist who studies pandemics. I have warned about global pandemics due to increasing travel for 15 years. I recommended community based monitoring of symptoms to stop Ebola in West Africa in 2014, and it worked. The fastest and even the only way to contain COVID-19 in the United States is a five-week national lockdown.
Closing schools, bars and movie theaters are good measures, but not enough. Our relaxed approach to social distancing is insufficient to stop the exponential growth of COVID-19. Until Americans consistently adopt strong social distancing recommendations — a lockdown — the disease will continue to spread exponentially.
During a five-week national lockdown, federal, state and local authorities would ensure that all Americans stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Travel would cease: We would close our borders and airports and prohibit all unnecessary travel across state and county (or town) lines within the United States. The U.S. government would have to provide aid to citizens separated from their sources of income and ensure care for vulnerable members of society.
Lockdown would sharply reduce cases
During the first two weeks of a lockdown, infected individuals will either recover from mild cases of COVID-19 at home or seek medical attention for the 14% of cases that are severe. During the third, fourth and fifth weeks, any newly infected family or cohabitants of infected individuals will recover or seek medical attention and their isolation will prevent further spreading. By the end of the lockdown, the number of infections will be a small fraction of what they are now.
The lockdown will give us time to dramatically scale up our supply of COVID-19 test kits and capacity to process them. If we reduce the number of infections using the lockdown and start a massive testing regime in the United States, we can control COVID-19 after five weeks without such extreme social distancing measures. Isolating sick individuals and their immediate contacts will be enough.
The human and economic costs of delaying this lockdown will be staggering. The COVID-19 outbreak has many more cases now than are visible (tip of the iceberg) and they are growing rapidly. Absent sufficiently effective intervention, new cases will increase 1.3 to 1.5 times each day. We had almost 20,000 cases in the United States on Friday, over 5,800 more cases than the previous day. Without a lockdown, in one week there will be about 200,000. In two weeks: 2,000,000. One in seven cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU care with ventilators to survive. There aren’t nearly enough ventilators available.
The effectiveness of a five-week lockdown will be dramatic — and also entirely predictable.
We know a U.S. lockdown can work because it worked in China. At the height of its COVID-19 crisis in mid-February, China had locked down an estimated 760 milllion people, approximately half of its population. This policy was so successful that Wuhan is now much safer from coronavirus than New York City or Washington, D.C. The few new COVID-19 cases in China now stem from foreign travelers rather than local transmission, and all are safely quarantined.
We know what we have to do. President Donald Trump and our states' governors and local leaders must act now to save millions of lives.
Yaneer Bar-Yam is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, where he is an expert on pandemics and other complex systems. He is spearheading the effort of over 3,000 volunteers working to stop the outbreak at endcoronavirus.org. Follow him on Twitter: @yaneerbaryam
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We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America
Locking down the country would reduce infections and allow time for massive testing. There will be staggering human and economic costs if we delay.www.yahoo.com
United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of February 29, 2020
Infections: 68
Deaths: 1
United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of March 22, 2020
Infections: 35,000
Deaths: 458
The exponential rise in infections and deaths in just 3 weeks is incredible. Where will the United States be on April 23, 2020 without the lockdown proposed above?
It would be nice to think we could shutdown our economy for 5 weeks and survive as a country, but it is not reality. A 5 week lockdown is a case of the cure being worse than the disease
There is no other option. This is a disaster situation. The priority is survival, not making money. The entire economy will have to be refocused to fighting this war, just like it was during World War II.
Forcing businesses to shut down is wrong. Cracking down on people going to parks is wrong. Let people make up their own damned minds. But authoritarian asswipes can never let that happen.
Go to the park. Get infected from someone you come into contact with. You get sick with a mild case. Go to visit grandma and she dies.
I am not coming into contact with anyone at the park or the biking trails which my stupid city closed.
Neither am I. I have to mask up and stay as far away from everyone as possible. Some asshole goes to Florida on spring break, catches the virus, gives it to their brother, sister, Mom or Dad and they give it to my wife who then gives it to me. I am as good as dead.
Coronavirus is 44 times more deadly than season flu. Seasonal flu has a vaccine you can take, coronavirus does NOT. When will you start to understand these basic facts?
It killed the young.......4000 Americans died in the 1st 6 months.......it killed by some estimates nearly 600,000 in the world..........A VACCINE was started within a FEW MONTHS.......
Now we have several VACCINES in the works within a few months again.........time will tell their success and how to manufacture so much of it is another problem.
WE CANNOT STAY SHUT DOWN FOR A VERY LONG TIME......IT WILL ECONOMICALLY DESTROY US AND THE WORLD.................Even with all of the people staying home...........we ONLY MINIMIZE THE SPREAD.......it's gonna keep coming back until medicine BEATS IT......or it runs it's course........
I do think once it gets MUGGY AND HOT down south....the spread will lessen.....I've shown SARS studies from the past already saying so.........Even though now they say it's NEW......LOL
SARs. .....isn't NEW.......NEITHER IS CORONA...........BOTH HAVE BEEN STUDIED........
This particular strain of corona is new. The alternative to a lockdown is mass death and the destruction of the health care system everyone depends when they become ill for other things. Defeating the pandemic and human survival are FAR MORE IMPORTANT than normal economic activity.
Its only the old economy that is shut down. A new economy is emerging to fight coronavirus just as a new economy emerged in the 1940s to fight World War II! Amazon.com is hiring 100,000 new workers. Shipping of essential services will continue.
Got news for you........While we are buying time.........this isn't GONNA HAPPEN QUICK.......History will repeat itself.....
The new treatments may be a SALVATION.......or minimize the damage........DAMAGE IS HERE and it's gonna keep coming until they get that VACCINE ROLLING.....
It's close to trials...........expedited they can start it. Summer will help.............BUT PEOPLE CAN'T STAY unemployed too long without losing everything..........That is a Fact......and why in the past...........THE WORLD took it on the chin and moved on..........
World was not connected in the past like it is now. Can't go back to business as usual of the impact will be worse than the lockdown. Government checks for everyone will be arriving at the start of April. Its time to hunker down and focus on getting food to eat in order to survive.
Like a WHOLE LOT OF AMERICANS RIGHT NOW.......the day I left over a 1000 went home.....
I'm fine for a while.......but this can't go on long term......I know people that will lose their homes...........if this goes to long.............they can't take my land .........it's paid for.......but some........they can't last that long......
LET'S CHOP THE LEGS OFF A HORSE........and say........go for a jog and be happy you are alive....
We will LOSE THIS ECONOMICALLY if it goes too long.
The economic loss is inevitable. This could be worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. All Americans will be receiving money from the government in April. Laws can be changed to prevent anyone from being evicted.
Wait for daddy gov't to give us a SOUP KITCHEN over a virus.........better you than me bro.
You want me to go DADDY GOV'T SAVE ME..............Private companies are stepping the hell up........and a vaccine is gonna come out quick.....and the FDA needs to fast track it and get it going..............in the meantime.......the treatments are getting better..........None of that matters if we DESTROY OUR COUNTRY.
You just went.......Maybe another Great Depression.......oh well...........I DON'T THINK SO........