What are the odds of 20 hard drives failing at once?

[daws101]

if each drive had one chance in 100 in 1 year of failing, which is pretty god awful for a hard drive, that would mean that having all 20 crash simultaneously in the same year would be 1 in 100^20th, or 10 followed by 199 zeroes.

Do you have the slightest clue how unlikely that is? But no, you atheists have been conditioned to accept astronomically unlikely events as fact, so i guess it isn't entirely your fault that you swallow so much catastrophic bullshit.

Are there any other reports of such a catastrophic loss from other buyers from this manufacturer who is obviously out of business now from millions of lawsuits?

No, because in my scenario's world such manufacturers do not stay in business for more than a couple of months if they are deliberately selling sabotaged hd's.

nice rationalization there jim blowme ...
Hard drives fail at higher rates then that in the manufacturing process alone.
You also don't understand the concept of planned obsolesce..
As to your atheist bullshit ,unlikely is not never ,try living in reality ...

hey [mention=39664]jimbowie[/mention] do yourself a favor -put this imbecile "daws"on ignore - he's not even worth your time - unless of course your in it for shits and giggles .

need a tissue?

 

[GreenBean]

nice rationalization there jim blowme ...
Hard drives fail at higher rates then that in the manufacturing process alone.
You also don't understand the concept of planned obsolesce..
As to your atheist bullshit ,unlikely is not never ,try living in reality ...

hey [mention=39664]jimbowie[/mention] do yourself a favor -put this imbecile "daws"on ignore - he's not even worth your time - unless of course your in it for shits and giggles .

need a tissue?

Okay - give me one - I want to make it dance by putting a little boogey in it.
Not to worry though -I'll give it right back when I'm done.

 

[daws101]

hey [mention=39664]jimbowie[/mention] do yourself a favor -put this imbecile "daws"on ignore - he's not even worth your time - unless of course your in it for shits and giggles .

need a tissue?

Okay - give me one - I want to make it dance by putting a little boogey in it.
Not to worry though -I'll give it right back when I'm done.

GOLLY was that supposed to be sarcasm?

 

[JimBowie1958]

simply utter bull crap Jim.hard drive crashes are reported at the time of the crash...at least to the computer techs, who then have to follow procedure with their hard drives and issue the employee a new computer or new hard drive....

The irs has turned over 750,000 documents subpoenaed in this investigation so far....including all of Lois Lerners Active emails and all of the active emails of the other people....only old and out dated emails were archived on their own computers...

And may I ask, why would these people archive emails that they believed to be illegal or inappropriate? Why wouldn't they just delete them instead of archiving them?

You need to think this through instead of knee jerking it.

WHAT FACTS ARE ''ALREADY OUT THERE''?

Yes, dumbass, handing over 750k or 800 million emails that are NOT the ones specifically asked for relating tot he investigation is called 'blinding them with a shit storm'. It proves nothing more than that the IRS is capable of storing massive amounts of data when it wants to.

And the known facts are out there, but I will put together a little fact sheet or maybe find one online and just keep linking to it so you can at least have an answer even if you wont actually read it, and we both know you wont.


Wow, that was quick here ya go:

The IRS Scandal: Timeline - Discover the Networks

Potty mouth you are....and high strung like a Chiwawa....you are going to have a heart attack! Calm down, you'll be the better for it!!!

I will read your link and go through its sources, and will note the debunked parts of the link....and note which parts are TRULY suspicious.

As far as the documents and $18,000,000 the IRS has spent so far to recover the 750,000 records subpoenaed....THIS IS YOUR REPUBLICAN CONGRESS CRITTERS FAULT.....

they subpoenaed ALL OF THESE RECORDS.....in their wide fishing net sweep, to try to find something incriminating....so far, NIL.... just lots and lots of time and money....but who cares right?

If they only wanted the emails from these 20 crashed hard drives, then why oh why oh why did they subpoenaed these other 750,000 documents that they do have? What a waste of time and money, tax dollars....shameful....

bullshit, the GOP subpoenaed the emails related to the IRS targeting Tea Party groups and others, then the IRS dumped it all on them. L:awyers do stupid shit like this all the time to bury their opponents in countless unrelated docs and reduce their ability to sort it all out.

But I do know one thing; NO MATTER WHAT COMES OUT OF ALL OF THIS THE DIMBOCRAPS LIKE YOU WILL STILL INSIST THAT THE REGIME DID NOTHING WRONG.

Because you are fascist liars and frauds.

 

[JimBowie1958]

If each drive had one chance in 100 in 1 year of failing, which is pretty god awful for a hard drive, that would mean that having all 20 crash simultaneously in the same year would be 1 in 100^20th, or 10 followed by 199 zeroes.

Do you have the slightest clue how unlikely that is? But no, you atheists have been conditioned to accept astronomically unlikely events as fact, so I guess it isn't entirely your fault that you swallow so much catastrophic bullshit.

Are there any other reports of such a catastrophic loss from other buyers from this manufacturer who is obviously out of business now from millions of lawsuits?

No, because in my scenario's world such manufacturers do not stay in business for more than a couple of months if they are deliberately selling sabotaged HD's.

nice rationalization there jim blowme ...
hard drives fail at higher rates then that in the manufacturing process alone.
you also don't understand the concept of planned obsolesce..
as to your atheist bullshit ,unlikely is not never ,try living in reality ...

Hey [MENTION=39664]JimBowie[/MENTION] do yourself a favor -put this imbecile "Daws"on ignore - he's not even worth your time - unless of course your in it for shits and Giggles .

Nah, sometimes Daws sobers up and posts things lucid and worth responding to, but the worse the circumstances the more these Dimbos lie and lie and lie.

 

[Care4all]

Yes, dumbass, handing over 750k or 800 million emails that are NOT the ones specifically asked for relating tot he investigation is called 'blinding them with a shit storm'. It proves nothing more than that the IRS is capable of storing massive amounts of data when it wants to.

And the known facts are out there, but I will put together a little fact sheet or maybe find one online and just keep linking to it so you can at least have an answer even if you wont actually read it, and we both know you wont.


Wow, that was quick here ya go:

The IRS Scandal: Timeline - Discover the Networks

Potty mouth you are....and high strung like a Chiwawa....you are going to have a heart attack! Calm down, you'll be the better for it!!!

I will read your link and go through its sources, and will note the debunked parts of the link....and note which parts are TRULY suspicious.

As far as the documents and $18,000,000 the IRS has spent so far to recover the 750,000 records subpoenaed....THIS IS YOUR REPUBLICAN CONGRESS CRITTERS FAULT.....

they subpoenaed ALL OF THESE RECORDS.....in their wide fishing net sweep, to try to find something incriminating....so far, NIL.... just lots and lots of time and money....but who cares right?

If they only wanted the emails from these 20 crashed hard drives, then why oh why oh why did they subpoenaed these other 750,000 documents that they do have? What a waste of time and money, tax dollars....shameful....

bullshit, the GOP subpoenaed the emails related to the IRS targeting Tea Party groups and others, then the IRS dumped it all on them. L:awyers do stupid shit like this all the time to bury their opponents in countless unrelated docs and reduce their ability to sort it all out.

But I do know one thing; NO MATTER WHAT COMES OUT OF ALL OF THIS THE DIMBOCRAPS LIKE YOU WILL STILL INSIST THAT THE REGIME DID NOTHING WRONG.

Because you are fascist liars and frauds.

Ya know, I truly don't understand why adults like you need to be so childish in your response and posts.... maybe you think you are a COOL 50 something year old, or something ridiculous like that...??? But, I do come to this board every day so, I suppose I should be used to it....

Prove it, btw....prove that the wide fishnet of emails was not requested by Congress's multiple subpoenas to the IRS....shoot, they are still adding more and more and more to their original subpoenas....

Those 750,000 documents turned over to congress are all involved with the BOLO list targeting cases.

You know nothing about the possible 20 other hard drive crashes...yet you are willing to start a thread and spread your contention on what happened or didn't happen, with once again no proof, no evidence suggesting such and in addition to this, you don't even know if these crashes took place at the same time or in different offices or the same office...

and you completely ignored that fact that the IRS has had 2000 Hard drive crashes in just the first 6 months of this year....doubling it to bring it to a year, that would be 4000 of hard drive crashes in one year within the IRS....

you are speculating, and that's fine and Dandy, but it does not make it FACT...because we don't know the facts yet on the less than 20 hard drives that may have crashed...it wasn't in the testimony that was released by the Ways and Means congress critters...so HOW IS IT that YOU KNOW what happened to them?

That's called speculation, not anything that can be supported as of yet.

I don't think looking at the whole picture, or waiting until the actual facts present themselves is something Dim-o, it is what WISE people do.

Are communists and socialists and fascists and liberals, and classical liberals and neoliberals and progressives all the same to you? Do you know the difference between them?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Potty mouth you are....and high strung like a Chiwawa....you are going to have a heart attack! Calm down, you'll be the better for it!!!

I will read your link and go through its sources, and will note the debunked parts of the link....and note which parts are TRULY suspicious.

As far as the documents and $18,000,000 the IRS has spent so far to recover the 750,000 records subpoenaed....THIS IS YOUR REPUBLICAN CONGRESS CRITTERS FAULT.....

they subpoenaed ALL OF THESE RECORDS.....in their wide fishing net sweep, to try to find something incriminating....so far, NIL.... just lots and lots of time and money....but who cares right?

If they only wanted the emails from these 20 crashed hard drives, then why oh why oh why did they subpoenaed these other 750,000 documents that they do have? What a waste of time and money, tax dollars....shameful....

bullshit, the GOP subpoenaed the emails related to the IRS targeting Tea Party groups and others, then the IRS dumped it all on them. L:awyers do stupid shit like this all the time to bury their opponents in countless unrelated docs and reduce their ability to sort it all out.

But I do know one thing; NO MATTER WHAT COMES OUT OF ALL OF THIS THE DIMBOCRAPS LIKE YOU WILL STILL INSIST THAT THE REGIME DID NOTHING WRONG.

Because you are fascist liars and frauds.

Ya know, I truly don't understand why adults like you need to be so childish in your response and posts.... maybe you think you are a COOL 50 something year old, or something ridiculous like that...??? But, I do come to this board every day so, I suppose I should be used to it....

Prove it, btw....prove that the wide fishnet of emails was not requested by Congress's multiple subpoenas to the IRS....shoot, they are still adding more and more and more to their original subpoenas....

Those 750,000 documents turned over to congress are all involved with the BOLO list targeting cases.

You know nothing about the possible 20 other hard drive crashes...yet you are willing to start a thread and spread your contention on what happened or didn't happen, with once again no proof, no evidence suggesting such and in addition to this, you don't even know if these crashes took place at the same time or in different offices or the same office...

and you completely ignored that fact that the IRS has had 2000 Hard drive crashes in just the first 6 months of this year....doubling it to bring it to a year, that would be 4000 of hard drive crashes in one year within the IRS....

you are speculating, and that's fine and Dandy, but it does not make it FACT...because we don't know the facts yet on the less than 20 hard drives that may have crashed...it wasn't in the testimony that was released by the Ways and Means congress critters...so HOW IS IT that YOU KNOW what happened to them?

That's called speculation, not anything that can be supported as of yet.

I don't think looking at the whole picture, or waiting until the actual facts present themselves is something Dim-o, it is what WISE people do.

Are communists and socialists and fascists and liberals, and classical liberals and neoliberals and progressives all the same to you? Do you know the difference between them?

You could at least put your talking points into your own words, dude and stop repeating them cut and paste.


When 20 people with specific emails all lose their HDs due to crashes, it truly defies the most craven gullibility and only leaves lies and fraud.

 

[mamooth]

You could at least put your talking points into your own words, dude and stop repeating them cut and paste.

When 20 people with specific emails all lose their HDs due to crashes, it truly defies the most craven gullibility and only leaves lies and fraud.

The only fraud on display is you making that fraudulent claim over and over, then refusing to back it up, even when directly asked multiple times.

Why don't you just admit you fabricated it all? It's not like you're fooling anyone. Instead of digging yourself in ever deeper, just come clean.

 

[daws101]

nice rationalization there jim blowme ...
hard drives fail at higher rates then that in the manufacturing process alone.
you also don't understand the concept of planned obsolesce..
as to your atheist bullshit ,unlikely is not never ,try living in reality ...

Hey [MENTION=39664]JimBowie[/MENTION] do yourself a favor -put this imbecile "Daws"on ignore - he's not even worth your time - unless of course your in it for shits and Giggles .

Nah, sometimes Daws sobers up and posts things lucid and worth responding to, but the worse the circumstances the more these Dimbos lie and lie and lie.

another in the endless series of false assumptions spewed by jim blowme..
I'm never not sober and even if I was totally shitfaced, I'd be more logical and lucid then you could ever wish to be...

 

[JimBowie1958]

You could at least put your talking points into your own words, dude and stop repeating them cut and paste.

When 20 people with specific emails all lose their HDs due to crashes, it truly defies the most craven gullibility and only leaves lies and fraud.

The only fraud on display is you making that fraudulent claim over and over, then refusing to back it up, even when directly asked multiple times.

Why don't you just admit you fabricated it all? It's not like you're fooling anyone. Instead of digging yourself in ever deeper, just come clean.

lol, Google is not restricted, you know?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Hey [MENTION=39664]JimBowie[/MENTION] do yourself a favor -put this imbecile "Daws"on ignore - he's not even worth your time - unless of course your in it for shits and Giggles .

Nah, sometimes Daws sobers up and posts things lucid and worth responding to, but the worse the circumstances the more these Dimbos lie and lie and lie.

another in the endless series of false assumptions spewed by jim blowme..
I'm never not sober and even if I was totally shitfaced, I'd be more logical and lucid then you could ever wish to be...

lol, thus demonstrating that Daws is too stupid to realize just how stupid he is.

 

[itfitzme]

If they came from the same unit, possible, still very unlikely. Thus, the need for hard copies.

Plus federal law states they have to keep permanent records of emails.

Simple fact, and the IRS is violating the law by not doing so.

But if people are willing to believe that 20 HDs are all going to fail at the same time, they will believe anything.

You are mistaking that i don't believe you for believing what you oppose. Thear is no mutual exclusivity here. I simply don't believe anyone.

 

[GreenBean]

Hey [MENTION=39664]JimBowie[/MENTION] do yourself a favor -put this imbecile "Daws"on ignore - he's not even worth your time - unless of course your in it for shits and Giggles .

Nah, sometimes Daws sobers up and posts things lucid and worth responding to, but the worse the circumstances the more these Dimbos lie and lie and lie.

another in the endless series of false assumptions spewed by jim blowme..
I'm never not sober and even if I was totally shitfaced, I'd be more logical and lucid then you could ever wish to be...

I'm never not sober

I find ity diificult to fathom that a sane sober person posts the crap that you do - tell the truth Daws, you're really one of us conservatives trying to make the Liberals look bad - right ?

 

[itfitzme]

Why is everyone wasting time trying to calculate the odds of a conservative conspiracy theory?

Do like I do. Point out how the conservatives are just proudly making shit up again. It's a habit they have.

Because it is the OP, I've seen this same consideration come up before and it wasn't answered. I thought I',d give it another go.

And the answer is../

However, the study showed typical annual replacement rates of between 2% and 4%, "and up to 13% observed on some systems."

Between that and the 580 mil sold per year we can gauge something.

But we aren't talking about just 20 HDS out of the whole fucking market, idiot.

We are talking about a specific set of 20 HDs all that tie in with emails from/to Lerner about using the power of the IRS to harass and intimidate the Tea Party, and the central message you guys on the Dim left is that you don't give a fuck about how Obama abuses the office of the Presidency. As long as he is your dictator you are just peachy keen with all of it.

But lets take the god-awful 13% failure per annum. That is roughly 1:8 of failing, and of 20 HDs failing all in the same period of time, the same year, is 8^20th power, which is roughly 1 in 1,152,921,504,606,846,976; one in a quintillion.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nswpM1W1APs]One Quintillion pennies - YouTube[/ame]

The chances of the worst HDs having 20 out of 20 all fail in the same year is about the same likelihood of someone saying the found the only penny in that huge stack at the end of the video above that had their initials on it by blowing the whole thing up and finding that that specific penny had landed out of the blue in their cup sitting on the ground at their feet.

You obviously do not understand the math here, and it doesn't matter. It's the only lie you've left to you and so you will run with it till the cows come home.

You are right, we aren't talking about the entire market. We are actually talking about all harddrives that have ever been made and ever will be made. That is the total population of hard drives. This is what the sample attemps to estimate.

Good to see you can do the math.

Still, you're missing the point. Extraordinarily small odds isn't impossible. You're pointis that 0.13^20 is cerrtainly small. But it isn't impossible. Probabilities tell us something about the population. They don't tell us anything about any specific hard drive. To get anything that truly represnts the population with some degree af confidence requires a larger sample. But there is nothing that can be definitivly stated about any particular hard drive or group of hard drive.


Out of 585,000,000 hard drive manufactured each year, at a 2% failure rate, we can confidently say that 11.7 million will fail every year. That is 585,000 sets of of 20. There is, given the problem as stated, no difference betwee any particular set of twenty 20. Every set of 20, whether they are all from 20'different companies, from ten, five, or one company, have exactly the same same odds. As far as probability and statistics are concerned, there is nothing particularly unique about any set twenty of twenty that might be chosen. Every specific set of twenty have exactly the same odds, the same likelihood of all failing, the same unlikelihood of failing. As presented, a set of twenty at Microsoft is just as unlikely. If every set of twenty is so unlikly as to be impossible then no harddrives should fail making the probability of failure equal to 0% for all harddrives.

The problem with your proposed solution is that it relies on applying the fuzzy logic of "highly unlikely equals impossible" unequally across all of the sets of twenty.



.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Nah, sometimes Daws sobers up and posts things lucid and worth responding to, but the worse the circumstances the more these Dimbos lie and lie and lie.

another in the endless series of false assumptions spewed by jim blowme..
I'm never not sober and even if I was totally shitfaced, I'd be more logical and lucid then you could ever wish to be...

I'm never not sober

I find ity diificult to fathom that a sane sober person posts the crap that you do - tell the truth Daws, you're really one of us conservatives trying to make the Liberals look bad - right ?

Daws is inebriated with ideological opiate.

And of course he doesn't even realize it and thinks his ideology makes him smarter.

 

[daws101]

Nah, sometimes Daws sobers up and posts things lucid and worth responding to, but the worse the circumstances the more these Dimbos lie and lie and lie.

another in the endless series of false assumptions spewed by jim blowme..
I'm never not sober and even if I was totally shitfaced, I'd be more logical and lucid then you could ever wish to be...

lol, thus demonstrating that Daws is too stupid to realize just how stupid he is.

you live a rich fantasy life and it shows...

 

[daws101]

Nah, sometimes Daws sobers up and posts things lucid and worth responding to, but the worse the circumstances the more these Dimbos lie and lie and lie.

another in the endless series of false assumptions spewed by jim blowme..
I'm never not sober and even if I was totally shitfaced, I'd be more logical and lucid then you could ever wish to be...

I'm never not sober

I find ity diificult to fathom that a sane sober person posts the crap that you do - tell the truth Daws, you're really one of us conservatives trying to make the Liberals look bad - right ?

I'm sure you find the simplest concepts un fathomable, hence your trouble with fact.
as to posting shit, you'd be Donald trump, if bullshit were cash.

 

[daws101]

another in the endless series of false assumptions spewed by jim blowme..
I'm never not sober and even if I was totally shitfaced, I'd be more logical and lucid then you could ever wish to be...

I'm never not sober

I find ity diificult to fathom that a sane sober person posts the crap that you do - tell the truth Daws, you're really one of us conservatives trying to make the Liberals look bad - right ?

Daws is inebriated with ideological opiate.

And of course he doesn't even realize it and thinks his ideology makes him smarter.

keep dreaming

 

[GreenBean]

another in the endless series of false assumptions spewed by jim blowme..
I'm never not sober and even if I was totally shitfaced, I'd be more logical and lucid then you could ever wish to be...

I'm never not sober

I find ity diificult to fathom that a sane sober person posts the crap that you do - tell the truth Daws, you're really one of us conservatives trying to make the Liberals look bad - right ?

I'm sure you find the simplest concepts un fathomable, hence your trouble with fact.
as to posting shit, you'd be Donald trump, if bullshit were cash.

I'll be sure to read your pamphlet if I ever need instruction on how to be a limp wristed, bong-smoking ignoramus. I mean seriouslly Pal, There isn't enough Oxycontin in the world to numb the pain of talking to a compost-piling loser like you. You neurotic, dumpster-diving asshat, the village called. They want their idiot back.

 

[daws101]

I find ity diificult to fathom that a sane sober person posts the crap that you do - tell the truth Daws, you're really one of us conservatives trying to make the Liberals look bad - right ?

I'm sure you find the simplest concepts un fathomable, hence your trouble with fact.
as to posting shit, you'd be Donald trump, if bullshit were cash.

I'll be sure to read your pamphlet if I ever need instruction on how to be a limp wristed, bong-smoking ignoramus. I mean seriouslly Pal, There isn't enough Oxycontin in the world to numb the pain of talking to a compost-piling loser like you. You neurotic, dumpster-diving asshat, the village called. They want their idiot back.

ahh isn't that precious. Just had to toss more bullshit around to bolster your lack of wit!