What are your Predictions for the South Carolina primary, GOP Tomorrow, Dems on Tuesday

[JimBowie1958]

Latest polls:

This one by the SC House Republicans has the largest sampling, over 3k people that are 'likely primary voters', which lowers Trumps representation a tad as it is of people who voted in the 2012 primary, and Trump is bringing in a lot of first time voters.
Trump 34 Cruz 19 Rubio 18 Bush 12 Kasich 8 Carson 5
SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

This one by Opinion Savy is very limited as Q2 tosses out any respondents who do not know where their voting booth is located. This shows previous GOP voters, and minimizes new voters completely and show Rubio solid in that demographic.
Trump 27 Cruz 19 Rubio 24 Bush 11 Kasich 7 Carson 8
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/OS-SC-2.19.16-Toplines.pdf

Emerson's poll of 'Likely Republican Primary Voters', whatever that means.
This one has high numbers for Trump but I cant find where they define 'Likely Republican Primary Voters'.
Trump 36 Cruz 18 Rubio 19 Bush 10 Kasich 10 Carson 6
Emerson College Polling Society

American Research Group's poll of 'Likely Republican Primary Voters', whatever that means
Trump 35 Cruz 12 Rubio 14 Bush 15 Kasich 10 Carson 2
South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

With good weather and Trump riding a wave of popularity, Trump getting about 35% of the vote seems very probable. I think Cruz is going to pick up a lot of Carson and Bush support, as will Rubio but not as much as I think Haley's endorsement equates to establishment branding, so some of his support will go to Cruz and Trump, though. The net effect I think will be Cruz over Rubio and both in the low 20's.

 

[Toro]

Clinton wins Nevada by correctly calling 12 coin flips in a row.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Clinton wins Nevada by correctly calling 12 coin flips in a row.

And how many Super Delegates does that give her? 600?

 

[Toro]

With good weather and Trump riding a wave of popularity, Trump getting about 35% of the vote seems very probable. I think Cruz is going to pick up a lot of Carson and Bush support, as will Rubio but not as much as I think Haley's endorsement equates to establishment branding, so some of his support will go to Cruz and Trump, though. The net effect I think will be Cruz over Rubio and both in the low 20's.

Low 20s for Rubio is good for Rubio, low 20s for Cruz is bad for Cruz.

If Rubio beats Bush and Kasich decisively, he will increase his chances of consolidating the establishment vote.

If Cruz loses to Trump badly, then it calls into question his whole strategy. Cruz has to win in the South. If he can't win in the South, he will have no chance.

My guess is that Cruz is closer to Trump than the polls suggest, and Bush is close enough to Rubio to stay in. Cruz has a better ground game than Trump, and Trump may have lost support after the debate, though probably not enough to lose.

Ironically, this probably helps Trump the most. Trump won't win in a straight up contest against Cruz or Rubio, or probably Kasich, but he can win with his 35% who will support him even if he drowns puppies on live TV if the field stays muddled.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Will this have any impact on voters in SC and going forward?

Exclusive: On Eve of South Carolina Vote, Nation's ICE Officers Detail How Marco Rubio Betrayed Them - Breitbart

In his responses, Crane addresses an incident—first detailed by Breitbart News— in which Marco Rubio stood idly by as Crane was ejected from a Gang of Eight press conference for trying to ask a question on behalf of law enforcement.

Crane, an active duty ICE officer, has served as an officer for approximately 13 years and has been elected by his peers as the president of their union, as thus their voice on the national stage. Prior to joining ICE, Crane was a United States Marine.

What follows below are the complete, unedited responses of National ICE Council President Chris Crane.

BREITBART NEWS: It is well known that the Gang of Eight reached out to big business groups and amnesty groups in the process of writing the bill. When Sen. Rubio started writing his bill, did he reach out to you and other ICE officers for your ideas and input?

CRANE: Sen. Rubio never reached out to us. He surrounded himself with big business and amnesty groups, most of which were more interested in cheap labor and their own political agendas, and had no real concern for the welfare of immigrants, public safety, or the security of our nation. This while he ignored boots on the ground law enforcement officers who work within our broken immigration system every day and know better than any what’s needed to fix it. Common sense dictates that law enforcement be at the table when creating a bill like this. I think Sen. Rubio knew that, but actively chose to exclude us because of his own personal agenda.

 

[OKTexas]

trump

depending on how many underhanded things cruz can pull off between now and tomorrow

cruz

rubio

bush

carson

clinton

sanders

Pardon the damn language but fuck Cruz!

i dont care for cruz either

he is an establishment politician in sheep clothing

Right, that's why all the establishment guys love him so much, give me a break.

in this case I think the charge is that Cruz is a defender of the Wall Street establishment, not the GOPe.

Oh OK, those nasty folks that virtually every American with a retirement account has entrusted their nest egg with, can't possibly have those folks doing well. Think about that a bit.

 

[Searcher44]

I'm too tired to come up with a set of numbers I'd have much confidence in. I have to come up with something though just in case I'm close enough to have even modest bragging rights. So lets see...
I think you're too high on Trump's total and his margin of victory in SC . I see him around 30% with Cruz at 25%. Rubio 23%. And weird as it may be I have a feeling Bush might get a "sympathy" bounce and come up with a surprise maybe 13 - 14%.

Same with dems in SC. Clinto with a lower total, say 53% Bernie 47%.

No way Bernie gets a "huge" win in Nevada. I'm going to go with Clinton in a close 52% to Bernie's 48%

IF Clinton wins SC by such a low percentage, that would be a disaster for her.I definitely think that Sanders popularity is spreading like wildfire in Nevada where he is showing a slight lead in polls and has been steadily gaining for weeks.

Just for interest, you know how precincts settle a tie in
Nevada? They take a new pack of cards, throw out the jokers, shuffle the deck seven times, each side cuts a card, highest card is awarded one delegate, if the card cut results in the same number or face card drawn the winner is decided by suit.

I knew they cut cards, but not the errata. Thanks!

Do you know if the suit order is clubs lowest, then diamonds, then hearts, then spades highest?

I'm terrible at this, I can't force myself to be objective, my subjectivity creeps in,
I try to compensate, wind up over or under compensating and that's it, I'm screwed.
You've got the suit order right.

 

[S.J.]

they would keep her alive forever if needed

--LOL

I had a Grandmother that many said the Devil kept her alive because he did not need his bride back ( I am not being sarcastic ) and when i think of the bride of Satan Hillary Clinton is his bitch to own!

I hated her as First Lady, and will never vote for her. I might be persuaded to vote for Sanders over Cruz but I am with your brother when it come to voting Trump over Hillary!

You know, I don't like Trump personally either but I think when you look at the records of the other candidates you will see that they are all pretty much alike. They promise whatever they have to to get your vote, then they do whatever the hell they want after you put them in office. Just look at the 2014 mid term election. Trump is the only one I see that will actually try to do what's right for the country (and he doesn't have to grease any palms of donors). I don't have to like him personally. I don't vote on emotions.

I am Scottish from the Clan of MacEachern and if you google the Clan it has no Septs nor are they Septs... ( I know this is weird but go with me )

Trump bloodline is different than mine and us Highland Scots have a weird way of looking at things ( yes there is that damn Lebanese grandfather in my bloodline ) and we look at a man being of honor and strong, and not bitching about a cheat like Cruz, so he need to man up, and be a man and whip Cruz ass fairly ( no not with a sword ) and he can.

Cruz is a punk.

My horse in this race is Kasich, so let me say if it is Trump vs Hillary then Trump should win but Sanders vs Trump, well I can live with four years of Sanders and the Senate and House staying GOP...

Don't forget about Supreme Court appointments. Sanders will appoint communists. I'm not comfortable with that, are you?

SCOTUS is lost already with the GOP Senate eventually completely caving in after another play fight with Obama.

True, but there are more coming up. At least a Republican would have a chance of balancing it back when Ginsberg bites the dust.

 

[2aguy]

I hope Cruz and Sanders win...

 

[Toro]

There has been a last-minute surge by Rubio in SC, according to recent polls. He, apparently, has pulled ahead of Cruz. Trump's support has also slipped, but he continues to lead.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

I think Cruz has to finish above Rubio. I also think that if Rubio finishes second, Bush, and maybe Kasich, could be finished.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Projections seem to be in now, and they show Trump will win. Well now.

 

[TemplarKormac]

JimBowie1958

And as of now Rubio has jumped ahead of Cruz.

 

[Toro]

If Rubio gets second in SC, he will win the nomination.

 

[Kosh]

If Rubio gets second in SC, he will win the nomination.

Oh poor far left drones and their inability to pick winners as they are used to their winners being chosen for them!

However for those that like to be informed here is a link:

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Caution to far left drones, that site contains real information and may make your brain melt!

 

[TemplarKormac]

If Rubio gets second in SC, he will win the nomination.

That would break with historical precedent. No candidate who won both NH and SC ever went on not to win the nomination. But Rubio has momentum.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Wow, I pretty much nailed my predictions. :O

 

[Toro]

If Rubio gets second in SC, he will win the nomination.

Oh poor far left drones and their inability to pick winners as they are used to their winners being chosen for them!

However for those that like to be informed here is a link:

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Caution to far left drones, that site contains real information and may make your brain melt!

Parrot says

SQWAK!! Far left drone!! SQWAK!!

 

[TemplarKormac]

Bush is toast.

 

[Kosh]

If Rubio gets second in SC, he will win the nomination.

Oh poor far left drones and their inability to pick winners as they are used to their winners being chosen for them!

However for those that like to be informed here is a link:

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Caution to far left drones, that site contains real information and may make your brain melt!

Parrot says

SQWAK!! Far left drone!! SQWAK!!

And this is how the far left acts when you post real information to help inform them, they reject it..

Political Figures: S-W

 

[Kosh]

Bush is toast.

I hope so! He should never have entered the race..

He should have left the race after New Hampshire..