Rigby5
Diamond Member
Back to work / back to normal before we have ways of stopping the spread, is the formula for the original death toll estimates.You don't understand the numbers. They were based on the conditions on the ground as input points to an epidemic model. Factors like R0 determine the exponential expansion of the curve, with the area under the curve the total cases, and or fatalities.The original death toll estimate was pure propaganda. It worked. We shut down the economy over what appears to be less that the deaths of an average flu season. They're desperately trying to inflate the death toll now. It's so blatant that if you got hit by a bus and killed, if they thought you had Covid 19, that would be listed as the cause.
The original R0 estimates wre in the 2.5 to 3.5 range, hence a total of 100K to 240K fatalities.
With the closure of schools the R0 was reduced by a third. Closing down non-essential business, another third. Social distancing another third. Bringing the R0 down near or below 1.0
Reversing any of the mitigating elements under the current case load, would return us to the original trajectory, virtually where we left off.
Yes that may well be true.
But isn't it also true that those who have not yet gotten COVID-19 either are immune and will never get it, or will get it eventually?
The only way any virus goes away if after enough people get immunity from getting it.
Social distancing can slow the spread so hospitals do not get over loaded, but it won't reduce the final count, I think.