U2Edge
Gold Member
- Sep 15, 2012
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- #101
Shutting down the country is a last resort. The first, and one of the most effective method to control the virus is massive testing, tracing contacts and quarantining positive cases. Had we been able to do that in March and April, there would have been no need to shut down businesses nor schools and there would have been little disruption in people's lives or the economy. The next least intrusive measure is masks and social distancing but that requires over 90% support from the public to control the virus. The last alternative, shutting everything down with stay at home orders will control the spread of the virus but wrecks havoc on the economy.Like most pandemics it will end very early in some countries and continue for many years in others. In South Korea with a population of about 18% of the US, they have .3% of the case and .2% of the deaths. Yesterday in the US, there were nearly 1000 deaths. In South Korea there have been only 293 deaths since the pandemic started. Our unemployment is about 11.3%. South Korean unemployment is 4.3%. Compared to the US and most other countries, the covid-19 is done in South Korea but not according to the South Korean goverment. Although most businesses, factories, and schools are open, the government shuts them down if there is just one case.When will the covid-19 pandemic end?
I say, and HOPE, that it ends in September 2021 thanks to the introduction of a vaccine. Its sad that the United States is going to have to wait for a vaccine when countries like TAIWAN and New Zealand have largely contained the outbreak among their populations. Taiwan is a country of 25 million people, and only 7 people have died from covid-19 and only 451 have been infected. Right now they only have 7 active cases compared to nearly 2 million active cases in the United States.
A doubt that the virus in the US will be under control by Sept. 2021. Even if we have a vaccine next January, and by some miracle we have enough of the vaccine, bottles, syringes to start inoculations of the public by March, we will need to vaccinate enough people to reach herd immunity, (230 million people immune) to actually eliminate all new cases. Since we don't know how many people have immunity now, we don't know how many people have to vaccinated. Best guess is at least 100 million. We are not likely to get that many people vaccinated in 6 months because it takes two does. There is also another problem. This vaccine was developed and tested in 6 months instead 6 or 7 years. How many people do think want to be the first in their neighborhood to be vaccinated?
And of course, if Trump is in office, the mad tweeter is just as likely as not to say he won't be getting vaccinated and he thinks it's a personal choice. Then it becomes a political issue like the masks and we have opposition across the country.
I agree with the bulk of your post. My only comment is we should have protected the most vulnerable early, that is the very old and very sick. For the rest of us the quicker to herd immunity the better. There was no reason to shut down the entire Country for months.
We are in the mitigation stage of the epidemic now. There is no chance of eliminating the virus by any of the above. The train left that station months ago. All we can do now is use the above methods to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed and wait for a vaccine or herd immunity.
I agree we should have done more to protect the elderly, however we did not know how vulnerable the elderly were until after the virus had spread. More protection for older Americans in nursing homes should have been done. However only 5% of older Americans over 65 live in nursing homes. I don't see how additional protection could have been provided for the 95% that don't.
Italy was in a very bad place in March/April with the virus, but their lockdown has produced amazing results. They now only have 1% to 2% of the daily infections and deaths that they did back in March.