"Why are the polls SO CLOSE?"

[Captain Caveman]

Your spelling ("programing") prompted me to investigate so I Googled it. And.. still no idea which is correct ("programming" or "programing"). Google seems to be at war with itself and Wikipedia. A quiet war. Admittedly. But war nonetheless. A full scale spelling crisis looms on the horizon.. Stay frosty..

Double m

 

[Votto]

I'll grant you the margins are slim to claim mandate. Biden, who won by 7M, I feel doesnt get credit for representing all Americans. I cant remember a single time he called Alabama or West Virginia a shit hole like the right does with blue areas. I have faith that Harris will continue that as well.

The border bill is a prime example of how it isnt both sides. Same with the infrastructure bill and the chips bill. Democrats compromise with a few republicans while the republicans act like babies unwilling to govern from the center.

The margins are slim but close enough to make it seem like Harris could actually win an fair election, and really, that is all that matters

Isn't that right.

 

[Votto]

I'm voting third party.

I don't know what's wrong with you, but I can't help you. Sorry.

You will vote third party?

I will have you now that RFK once attached a whale head to his car and drove it home.

How on earth could you vote for such a horrible human being?

 

[Mac1958]

You will vote third party?

I will have you now that RFK once attached a whale head to his car and drove it home.

How on earth could you vote for such a horrible human being?

So that's what you think I said?

Again: I can't help you. Please feel free to weird with someone else.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

So, if I agree with you I am just being sensible

But if I disagree with you I am controlled by a cult?

Thats the usual lib game of heads you win, and tails we lose

It has nothing to do with agreeing with me.

Where the fuck do you get these ideas?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

This pushback, by the way, is global. And relatively successful.

EU rocked as far-right party founded by Nazi WW2 veterans storms to victory

Herbert Kickl's Freedom Party is on for a huge victory in Austria according to early projections.

www.express.co.uk

That is a bit overblown.

The left got 47.4% of the vote and the far right got 28.8%. It is just that the left votes are split between far left and middle left parties.

 

[Mac-7]

It has nothing to do with agreeing with me.

Where the fuck do you get these ideas?

Of course its about the libs getting your way

And curses on the MAGAs who dont cooperate

 

[okfine]

I sat through a lot of the Robert Reich video below to see whether, at any point, he would stop looking outward and start looking inward. I stuck around for about half of it.

So, "why are the polls so close?" Some of the theories they cover:

• The polls are wrong
• The media is propping up Trump to keep it close and get views and clicks
• People are tuning out the news and facts because they're overwhelmed and exhausted
• The public doesn't know Harris well enough so they'll take the devil I know
• People respond to fear than to "nice messages"
• Harris has not done a good enough job of defining herself
• They don't understand what a madman Trump is
• Voters are not considering their own economic self interest
• Mysogyny
• Racism

I've watched many of these conversations, and I have yet to see a Democrat ask "could it be US, and more specifically, the way we advocate for our positions? Do we go too far? Do we overreach? Have we made ourselves unattractive in some way? If so, how? How can we change our approach (not our ideals, but the way we advocate for them) to make ourselves more attractive?"

When a party loses, the last place it looks is the mirror. Personally, I think (and I was warning about this for years here) that some of the tactics the Dems have deployed (particularly the way they've weaponized PC and Identity Politics) have played a significant role in the rise and growth and staying power of Trumpism.

The media wants the viewers to believe elections are like a horse race. Neck and neck till they get to the finish line.

Do a search on "race horse analolgy"

 

[Mac1958]

That is a bit overblown.

The left got 47.4% of the vote and the far right got 28.8%. It is just that the left votes are split between far left and middle left parties.

That's good to know.

Even with that, though, 28.8% is a disturbing figure. I wonder what it would be here, given the same party splits.

 

[citygator]

What I point out are MAGAs that worship a human being and put that one man before the country.

But hey, I do not blame you rank and file MAGA members, you are just following your programing.

In the book "Everything is Fucked" my Mark Manson, he lays out the steps to create your own religion. And it is as if Trump has read the book and used it a blue print.

Step One...Sell Hope to the Hopeless
Step Two....Choose your faith
Step Three...Preemptively Invalidate all criticism or outside questioning.
Step Four...Ritual Sacrifice for Dummies
Step Five...Promise Heaven, Deliver Hell
Step Six...Prophet for Profit.

And such an unworthy human at that. The idiocy of this whole political era will be deeply studied by whoever picks up our pieces.

 

[dblack]

I sat through a lot of the Robert Reich video below to see whether, at any point, he would stop looking outward and start looking inward. I stuck around for about half of it.

So, "why are the polls so close?" Some of the theories they cover:

• The polls are wrong
• The media is propping up Trump to keep it close and get views and clicks
• People are tuning out the news and facts because they're overwhelmed and exhausted
• The public doesn't know Harris well enough so they'll take the devil I know
• People respond to fear than to "nice messages"
• Harris has not done a good enough job of defining herself
• They don't understand what a madman Trump is
• Voters are not considering their own economic self interest
• Mysogyny
• Racism

I've watched many of these conversations, and I have yet to see a Democrat ask "could it be US, and more specifically, the way we advocate for our positions? Do we go too far? Do we overreach? Have we made ourselves unattractive in some way? If so, how? How can we change our approach (not our ideals, but the way we advocate for them) to make ourselves more attractive?"

When a party loses, the last place it looks is the mirror. Personally, I think (and I was warning about this for years here) that some of the tactics the Dems have deployed (particularly the way they've weaponized PC and Identity Politics) have played a significant role in the rise and growth and staying power of Trumpism.

It's the natural equilibrium of a two-party system. Neither party has any incentive to get more than 50.1% of the vote. In fact, they have incentive to not get more than that.

If we assume that the goal of each side is to maximally pursue their agenda, any votes beyond 50% represent lost opportunity. It means they tilted too far to the center and could have pushed harder to steer things in their direction.

 

[Mac1958]

If we assume that the goal of each side is to maximally pursue their agenda, any votes beyond 50% represent lost opportunity. It means they tilted too far to the center and could have pushed harder to steer things in their direction.

Yikes.

That's a good point and pretty fucking awful.

 

[marvin martian]

I sat through a lot of the Robert Reich video below to see whether, at any point, he would stop looking outward and start looking inward. I stuck around for about half of it.

So, "why are the polls so close?" Some of the theories they cover:

• The polls are wrong
• The media is propping up Trump to keep it close and get views and clicks
• People are tuning out the news and facts because they're overwhelmed and exhausted
• The public doesn't know Harris well enough so they'll take the devil I know
• People respond to fear than to "nice messages"
• Harris has not done a good enough job of defining herself
• They don't understand what a madman Trump is
• Voters are not considering their own economic self interest
• Mysogyny
• Racism

I've watched many of these conversations, and I have yet to see a Democrat ask "could it be US, and more specifically, the way we advocate for our positions? Do we go too far? Do we overreach? Have we made ourselves unattractive in some way? If so, how? How can we change our approach (not our ideals, but the way we advocate for them) to make ourselves more attractive?"

When a party loses, the last place it looks is the mirror. Personally, I think (and I was warning about this for years here) that some of the tactics the Dems have deployed (particularly the way they've weaponized PC and Identity Politics) have played a significant role in the rise and growth and staying power of Trumpism.

The DemoKKKrats don't care, they know they've got your vote. Right?

 

[dblack]

Yikes.

That's a good point and pretty fucking awful.

Indeed. It's part of what makes it so hard to find any real consensus.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Of course its about the libs getting your way

And curses on the MAGAs who dont cooperate

And then you prove you are in a cult. In a cult it is always "us vs them". That is the very heart of cults.

I am not a lib, no matter how many times you say I am.

I want less spending, I want less restrictions on our freedom and I want more liberty.

All the things the MAGA cult and the Libs hate.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

It's the natural equilibrium of a two-party system. Neither party has any incentive to get more than 50.1% of the vote. In fact, they have incentive to not get more than that.

If we assume that the goal of each side is to maximally pursue their agenda, any votes beyond 50% represent lost opportunity. It means they tilted too far to the center and could have pushed harder to steer things in their direction.

Post of the WEEK!

 

[Mac-7]

And then you prove you are in a cult. In a cult it is always "us vs them". That is the very heart of cults.

I am not a lib, no matter how many times you say I am.

I want less spending, I want less restrictions on our freedom and I want more liberty.

All the things the MAGA cult and the Libs hate.

You clain to want less spending

But when I offer you a way to do so you turn it down

You claim to want to stop the alien invasion

But only on your terms

Your idea of compromise is you getting everything your way

 

[Grumblenuts]

Double m

That's my vote as well.