Why Capitalism is Doomed

Dragon, I've read all your stuff at your links, though I haven't read all you comments in this thead, and their hystorical derivation. You've identified a shortcoming (you think) of capitalism. But what have you arrived at as a replacement system?

Refer me to a post, or define the new way, please.
 
I don't have any real answers at this point. I've mentioned a couple of ideas, but I'm not wholly happy with either of them. One would be to nationalize all publicly-traded corporations and pay everyone an ownership share as an entitlement of citizenship. Another would be to somehow make it that everyone works part-time but receives full-time wages.

The one thing I'm sure of is that our future economy will have to separate the idea of income from the idea of paid work.
 
I don't have any real answers at this point. I've mentioned a couple of ideas, but I'm not wholly happy with either of them. One would be to nationalize all publicly-traded corporations and pay everyone an ownership share as an entitlement of citizenship. Another would be to somehow make it that everyone works part-time but receives full-time wages.

The one thing I'm sure of is that our future economy will have to separate the idea of income from the idea of paid work.

It's failed 100% of the time every place and every time it's been tried.

Guaranteed 100% Failure
 
Thanks to ifitme for those data. Against that background I need to say that the technological advances I'm talking about (the ability to automate service jobs) only began in the 1980s in embryo. That's when the personal computer was invented and put on the market. The development of computer networks, and finally the internet, accelerated the process through the 1990s and into the 21st century. At this point, the main advances relevant to what's going on are in software.

As ifitzme's data shows, expansion of the work force (on the supply side of the equation) can be absorbed; despite the increase in percentage of the population in the work force, full employment was maintained. Contraction on the demand side is another matter. That's what we're facing today, but we've only faced it on any significant scale in the last decade or two.

EDIT: The reason why expansion of the work force can be absorbed is because every worker is also a potential consumer, expanding the demand for goods and services; as long as the need for work to produce goods and services persists, the supply of paid labor creates its own demand -- which is the only situation in which Say's law actually holds true. ;)

Your welcome.

BTW, the SOL and efficiency are just proxy measures, if you will. They are reasonable in gauging some rate of change between years.

The data doesn't prove or disprove any of your fundamental concepts, it just puts them into context.

The reality is that there is a general over supply of labor. And with each efficiency increase, that over supply continues. There is obviously an over supply right now.

The process of growth has been for a new growth technology or method to be realized. More investment, then will be needed in the long run, is poured into it. Excess labor is absorbed. When the excess demand for the new growth opportunity has been satisfied, growth begins to decline. The majority of the new start-ups are shed from the economy, leaving only the few market leaders to meet the new demand of a growing populace. Labor is once again shed and unemployment rises.

While it is true that in the long run, all resources are utilized, it seems that the medium run is the period of time from the trough to peak. When the medium run has been reached, the economy contracts again. The long run is never reached because the economy never reaches a steady state condition. It never reaches a steady state growth condition.

The medium run has all the essential appearance of the long run, in that all resources are being utilized. Unfortunately, in it's underlying structure, it is not the same. And it is common for complex systems to present the same external effect for different internal causes.

An interesting issue arises in that early gains are compounded. Early resources beget a greater amount of later resources that insulate those with more from the effects of the recession. Large conglomerates are less sensitive to the recession then small businesses. Not for any inherent capability but for purely external factors.

This same process occurs with the varying income levels. And it is most apparent when looking at the rate of change of incomes.

Take the income quartiles, calculate and plot the rate of change over time.

When the economy is on the upswing, the upper 5% see greater gains then the middle income level. When the economy is on the down swing, the middle income sees greater losses then the upper 5%. It has to do with leverage.

Large businesses gain more from efficiency then smaller businesses. B of A is the big winner of POS, not the shop keeper down the street. Whatever gains the shopkeeper realizes, by not having to walk to the bank each evening, he loses in the transaction fees.

Unskilled labor, lacking the resources and opportunity to become skilled, and in competition with each other, will forgo health care and retirement savings out of desperation for an opportunity to just get the job.

Of all that growth in the labor force, full employment is only from the time it surpasses the last local maximum, until it reaches a new maximum. All the other times, it's not full employment.

There are sub-economies, within the larger aggregate, that are significantly different. There is something structurally wrong with the system as it plays out over the decades. This is just as apparent in the volatility of the employment to population ratio as it plays out against a background of constant growth.

Unpredictable changes do no one any good as a large percentage of gains in growth are lost again in a two steps forward and one step back process.
 
There's an oversupply of government spending, regulation and central planning. Fix that and the economy will grow and unemployment will plummet
 
Since the Constitution, America has probably never been a totally capitalist nation. The problem has been keeping capitalism, capitalism. When Americans became aware of its possible loss they begin to try and strengthen it, even modify it to save it. We had the progressive period when the competition part of capitalism was almost eradicated, and kept it going. FDR kept it alive when it probably was in most danger and since then we have added more socialism to the mix for equality. Another way to look at the need for less labor, is less working hours, we went from a sixty hour work week to a forty maybe it's time to let machines do even more? Think of what America could do if politicians were more interested in the people than campaign coffers filled with corporate money.

Probably means you do not know and have no reliable source to back up your statement. It appears, it is your personal opinion which is meaningless.
 
Actually, history shows that a mixed-model economy with socialist programs and regulations applied to a privately-owned base perform much better than either a pure capitalist or pure socialist model. But we seem to be entering into uncharted territory now, so that history cannot be taken as a straightforward guide.
When has pure capitalism ever been tried in long term and large scale?

Are you going to nitpick over the word "pure" now? Will you agree that American capitalism before the Great Depression was at least closer to being "pure" than after World War II? Will you agree that it was also closer to being "pure" than any advanced nation practices today, particularly the mixed-model economies of western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, etc.?
I don't nitpick. You need to express yourself more clearly.

If you didn't want a comparison to pure capitalism, why did you mention it?
 
The opposite of what, that a mixed model economy does better than pure capitalism or socialism, or that we are entering into uncharted territory now?

If the first, I disagree, and this is why all of the advanced world today has exactly such a mixed economy. If the second, there is no way that history can ever show that we are entering uncharted territory, or that we are not. That's why they call it "uncharted."


You offered no proof. But as a general rule, compromising principles by incorporating antithetical values is a bad idea.

On the contrary, I did offer proof -- from history, which is the subject under discussion. The U.S. economy, after World War II, incorporated socialist aspects of social programs and regulation on a base of private ownership; it was a mixed economy, and FAR outperformed the U.S.e economy before the Depression. If you look at the richest, most advanced countries in the world today, all of them without exception are mixed economies. That includes western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, as well as the U.S. On the other hand, if you look at the poorest countries, almost all of them are either much closer to pure capitalism or much closer to pure socialism. We can also compare the dismal performance of the Soviet Union to show that pure socialism is a bust.

As for your theoretical consideration stated above, I suggest that it's not a case of incorporating antithetical values so much as striking a middle ground between extremes.

What did that Brit say? Socialism works great until you run out of other people's money.....
 
I guess I'm left wondering how "free" trade is that doesn't allow people to decide for themselves how they trade their goods and services with others, or that dictates how wealth is distributed via a coercive authority.

You're jumping to conclusions about the hows. Wealth was quite widely distributed in the 1960s. While there were policies that shaped how this happened, to say that it was dictated by a coercive authority is a severe overstatement. Nor would we necessarily have to have that happen now, or in the near future.

I can't say I've studied the situation re: the sixties in any depth, but all government "policies" are coercive - it's the nature of the beast.

Nevertheless, it's pointless to stick our heads in the sand. If wealth becomes too unequally distributed, and especially if most people see no way to better their circumstances, we will have a revolution. You've studied history enough to know that. If we can't get back to full employment, then there is no way that wages paid for work can rise enough to prevent that, even if we go back to full support for labor unions and a labor-friendly government.

I don't necessarily agree with this assumption, but if it is your conviction that government must act to redistributed wealth let's at least be honest - that's not 'free trade'. Free trade is about people distributing their wealth as they see fit.

Okay, Dragon is right.... I want to be the dictator that redistributes the wealth! I want to be the dictator that tells us what food we can eat, and how much exercise we get. I want to be the dictator that decides if people receive health care! I want to be the dictator that can fire CEOs because I think they make too much money, and ignore my staff's excesses and abuses of "wealth that is to be re-distributed". I want to be the dictator that tells the "little" people about how they should pinch their vacation dollars, while my family and I blow thru "wealth that is to be re-distributed". I want to tell people what type of cars they should drive, and how they should move to population centers and be happy with crime-ridden, filthy, public transportation!


S**t, Obama already has that job :-(
 
I don't have any real answers at this point. I've mentioned a couple of ideas, but I'm not wholly happy with either of them. One would be to nationalize all publicly-traded corporations and pay everyone an ownership share as an entitlement of citizenship. Another would be to somehow make it that everyone works part-time but receives full-time wages.

The one thing I'm sure of is that our future economy will have to separate the idea of income from the idea of paid work.

Isn't that the GSA?....... just sayin'
 
I don't have any real answers at this point. I've mentioned a couple of ideas, but I'm not wholly happy with either of them. One would be to nationalize all publicly-traded corporations and pay everyone an ownership share as an entitlement of citizenship. Another would be to somehow make it that everyone works part-time but receives full-time wages.

The one thing I'm sure of is that our future economy will have to separate the idea of income from the idea of paid work.


Cannot imagine that would/could/ or should happen. Some people are just more creative, industrious, or downright determined to succeed more than others. You can't compensate them the same as those who are less so. Some people are more risk aversive than others, why shouldn't the person who risks it all be rewarded for it?

You pay a person today according to his/her market value; what'll it cost to replace that person AND bring him/her up to speed as far as productivity goes. To be sure, there are other factors, but you're not going to pay somebody $20 bucks an hour when you can replace him/her for another person who's willing to work for $10. You gotta be worth the extra money, and the day you take that away is the day we become a socialist country. And that will not be a good day IMHO.
 
I don't have any real answers at this point. I've mentioned a couple of ideas, but I'm not wholly happy with either of them. One would be to nationalize all publicly-traded corporations and pay everyone an ownership share as an entitlement of citizenship. Another would be to somehow make it that everyone works part-time but receives full-time wages.

The one thing I'm sure of is that our future economy will have to separate the idea of income from the idea of paid work.


Cannot imagine that would/could/ or should happen. Some people are just more creative, industrious, or downright determined to succeed more than others. You can't compensate them the same as those who are less so. Some people are more risk aversive than others, why shouldn't the person who risks it all be rewarded for it?

You pay a person today according to his/her market value; what'll it cost to replace that person AND bring him/her up to speed as far as productivity goes. To be sure, there are other factors, but you're not going to pay somebody $20 bucks an hour when you can replace him/her for another person who's willing to work for $10. You gotta be worth the extra money, and the day you take that away is the day we become a socialist country. And that will not be a good day IMHO.

Dragon advocates a system with a 100% Guaranteed Fail Rate
 
I don't have any real answers at this point. I've mentioned a couple of ideas, but I'm not wholly happy with either of them. One would be to nationalize all publicly-traded corporations and pay everyone an ownership share as an entitlement of citizenship. Another would be to somehow make it that everyone works part-time but receives full-time wages.

The one thing I'm sure of is that our future economy will have to separate the idea of income from the idea of paid work.


Cannot imagine that would/could/ or should happen. Some people are just more creative, industrious, or downright determined to succeed more than others. You can't compensate them the same as those who are less so. Some people are more risk aversive than others, why shouldn't the person who risks it all be rewarded for it?

You pay a person today according to his/her market value; what'll it cost to replace that person AND bring him/her up to speed as far as productivity goes. To be sure, there are other factors, but you're not going to pay somebody $20 bucks an hour when you can replace him/her for another person who's willing to work for $10. You gotta be worth the extra money, and the day you take that away is the day we become a socialist country. And that will not be a good day IMHO.

And yet you worked for the most largest, socialist, organization in the history of mankind. The US military has pay grades, identical to the pay scales of unions. The rules that manage the workers, enlisted and otherwise, are identical in structure and purpose and any union rules regarding workers. The US is, for the greater part, a planned economic system. And it gets it's funding through taxes on the populace.
 
I don't have any real answers at this point. I've mentioned a couple of ideas, but I'm not wholly happy with either of them. One would be to nationalize all publicly-traded corporations and pay everyone an ownership share as an entitlement of citizenship. Another would be to somehow make it that everyone works part-time but receives full-time wages.

The one thing I'm sure of is that our future economy will have to separate the idea of income from the idea of paid work.


Cannot imagine that would/could/ or should happen. Some people are just more creative, industrious, or downright determined to succeed more than others. You can't compensate them the same as those who are less so. Some people are more risk aversive than others, why shouldn't the person who risks it all be rewarded for it?

You pay a person today according to his/her market value; what'll it cost to replace that person AND bring him/her up to speed as far as productivity goes. To be sure, there are other factors, but you're not going to pay somebody $20 bucks an hour when you can replace him/her for another person who's willing to work for $10. You gotta be worth the extra money, and the day you take that away is the day we become a socialist country. And that will not be a good day IMHO.

And yet you worked for the most largest, socialist, organization in the history of mankind. The US military has pay grades, identical to the pay scales of unions. The rules that manage the workers, enlisted and otherwise, are identical in structure and purpose and any union rules regarding workers. The US is, for the greater part, a planned economic system. And it gets it's funding through taxes on the populace.


I didn't know any unions have a promotion system. Nor did I know they pay extra money for certain hard to fill skills, or an automatic pay increase every 2 years for seniority. When's the last time a union fired one of it's members for insubordination or incompetance? Oh, and how many union workers have to worry about stepping on a bomb or getting shot when they go to work?

You obviously know nothing about the military. A socialist organization does not advertise for volunteers, they force people to do what they're told. They don't let people leave of their own volition, nor do they allow members opportunities to change jobs or bitch about inequities. Socialistic organizations shoot your ass for that, at worst the US military asks you to find other employment.
 

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