JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
- 16,767
There are many varied reasons, and I will start with the simplest first.
1. Donald Trump has rewritten the book on how to win elections. He is Bobby Fischer to the Democrats Boris Spasky, the GOP General Patton to the Democrats General Rommel. The Democrats STILL dont grasp how this complete political novice won the GOP primary and that 'why' is going to get them slaughtered like stupid swine in the general election.
2. Hillary Clintons negative rating is growing with an increase of about percent each month, while Trumps is declining from a 70% unfavorable in March 30, to a 63% end of April, and they will cross well before the November vote, about a 58% unfavorable for Clinton and a 48% or so for Trump by November.
3. Trump will win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Michigan, and will challenge Clinton in all the blue states as well, particularly New York and California. Clinton will have to defend her entire base while Trump will practically not have to campaign in most of the off coast West and all the South except Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. He will put these states back in the GOP column because he is not a Free Trade zealot like McCain and Romney and Hillary are. If Hillary gets indicted it will be a landslide.
4. In elections with both parties having contested primaries, with the exception of Bush 41 who was seen as the continuance of Reagan and practically ran as an incumbent and was thus an outlier, the party with the higher increase in primary turnout as a percentage won in the general election. Three elections fit that description (other than 1988, for reasons given) 1980, 2000, and 2008, the party with the highest increase in primary turnout won. Again, the 1988 election did not have significant GOP turnout because Bush 41 ran practically unopposed. The primaries for this year have had a 26% reduction in Democratic turn out and Republicans have seen a 50% increase in voter turnout, and it has been especially strong among open primary states.
The writing on the wall is plain and it says "President Donald Trump".
1. Donald Trump has rewritten the book on how to win elections. He is Bobby Fischer to the Democrats Boris Spasky, the GOP General Patton to the Democrats General Rommel. The Democrats STILL dont grasp how this complete political novice won the GOP primary and that 'why' is going to get them slaughtered like stupid swine in the general election.
2. Hillary Clintons negative rating is growing with an increase of about percent each month, while Trumps is declining from a 70% unfavorable in March 30, to a 63% end of April, and they will cross well before the November vote, about a 58% unfavorable for Clinton and a 48% or so for Trump by November.
3. Trump will win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Michigan, and will challenge Clinton in all the blue states as well, particularly New York and California. Clinton will have to defend her entire base while Trump will practically not have to campaign in most of the off coast West and all the South except Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. He will put these states back in the GOP column because he is not a Free Trade zealot like McCain and Romney and Hillary are. If Hillary gets indicted it will be a landslide.
4. In elections with both parties having contested primaries, with the exception of Bush 41 who was seen as the continuance of Reagan and practically ran as an incumbent and was thus an outlier, the party with the higher increase in primary turnout as a percentage won in the general election. Three elections fit that description (other than 1988, for reasons given) 1980, 2000, and 2008, the party with the highest increase in primary turnout won. Again, the 1988 election did not have significant GOP turnout because Bush 41 ran practically unopposed. The primaries for this year have had a 26% reduction in Democratic turn out and Republicans have seen a 50% increase in voter turnout, and it has been especially strong among open primary states.
The writing on the wall is plain and it says "President Donald Trump".
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