healthmyths
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- Sep 19, 2011
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In a first look at head-to-head 2020 presidential matchups nationwide, several Democratic challengers lead President Donald Trump, with former Vice President Joseph Biden ahead 53 - 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.
Responses are reported for 1,214 self-identified registered voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 503 Democratic or Democratic leaning voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us06112019_demos_urox72.pdf/
So that is 41% of the 1,214 that would FAVOR Biden in the first place...i.e. Democrat!
This leaves 59% either GOP or Independent or 711 polled.
So within this one poll we get some real disparities.
PARTY IDENTIFICATION QUESTION WORDING -
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?
REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 31%
Democrat 33
Independent 28
Other/DK/NA 8
So there is confusion here then.
In the headlines 503 Democrats or leaning voters.
YET Quinnipiac states 33% or 400 Democrat meaning 103 Independents.
28% or 339 Independent voters.
Why? Just as the pollsters did with Hillary, biasing the poll numbers is at work with Biden.
Responses are reported for 1,214 self-identified registered voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 503 Democratic or Democratic leaning voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us06112019_demos_urox72.pdf/
So that is 41% of the 1,214 that would FAVOR Biden in the first place...i.e. Democrat!
This leaves 59% either GOP or Independent or 711 polled.
So within this one poll we get some real disparities.
PARTY IDENTIFICATION QUESTION WORDING -
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?
REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 31%
Democrat 33
Independent 28
Other/DK/NA 8
So there is confusion here then.
In the headlines 503 Democrats or leaning voters.
YET Quinnipiac states 33% or 400 Democrat meaning 103 Independents.
28% or 339 Independent voters.
Why? Just as the pollsters did with Hillary, biasing the poll numbers is at work with Biden.