Lucy Hamilton
Diamond Member
- Oct 30, 2015
- 38,422
- 15,170
- 1,590
- Banned
- #201
New FBI Announcement Could Throw Wrench Into Down-Ballot Races
But no one really knows how revisiting the Clinton email investigation will affect other candidates on the ballot.
A vague announcement from FBI director James Comey on Friday that suggested he was reopening a case against Hillary Clinton may not be enough to save Donald Trumpâs electoral chances, but it just may save a number of Republicans down-ballot. Then again, maybe not. No one actually knows.
Itâs kind of like this whole investigation: There are a lot of questions, even more speculation and hardly any answers.
There hasnât been enough time to conduct a reliable poll that would indicate how the announcement affects the election. Even polling conducted over the weekend could turn out to be moot, as we learn more about what prompted Comey to reopen an investigation related to Clintonâs emails.
No one has been able to definitively say what Comeyâs actions are about â or if the case ever really closed. Itâs so far unknown whether the FBI is looking at anything new, or how Republicans and Democrats will be able to define the matter over the next nine days.
Thatâs not to mention that many states have already begun voting. Many voters have already cast ballots. Many more will as the incident unfolds.
The earliest indications, however, are that the news isnât stopping Democrats from getting to the polls. About 7,000 more Democrats participated in early voting on Saturday in North Carolina than did on that day in 2012. Nevada early voting looksremarkably similar to 2012 numbers.
The cable news conventional wisdom has been that Republicans who were unsure about Trump might be more motivated to go out â either to vote against Clinton, or to vote for Republicans down-ballot as a check against Clinton.
Thatâs the line from Republicans, at least.
âItâs too soon to have any data,â one national GOP operative told The Huffington Post, âbut I do believe this will have an impact, especially with the Republican voters who were on the fence for turning out.â
But again, itâs all conjecture.
âHonestly, itâs a little early to tell,â said a GOP official doing field work. âReal people donât follow day-to-day as closely as we do. Maybe it ultimately stalls Clintonâs afterburners. But it doesnât change the fact that her field team is flying circles around the RNC.â
In short, even Republicans donât think this substantively affects the presidential race â not when Trump doesnât have a real get-out-the-vote operation.
Democrats seem to think Clintonâs email issues really havenât been moving voters anyway.
âPeople that were going to make decisions based on the Clinton emails already did that,â said a Democratic strategist.
A Democratic Senate operative noted that, in mid-September, when Clintonâs own poll numbers were sagging, âour races remained stable (despite the breathless insistence of the national media otherwise).â
âIf she takes a hit now, our races can stay steady again,â the operative predicted.
And thatâs assuming Clinton does take a hit.
As that same operative noted, no one knows whatâs really going on with this FBI investigation. âIt is looking like a lot of smoke with no fire,â the person said. âItâs also not clear that people will take this as ânewâ information. Theyâve always know there is a thing with the emails.â
Much of the reaction, of course, will depend on what we learn in the coming days from the FBI â if we learn anything at all.
As John Podesta, Clintonâs campaign chairman, suggested on Sunday, if this is about reviewing Clinton aide Huma Abedinâs emails, the FBI already did that.
But this isnât exactly how Clinton or other Democrats wanted to end the 2016 campaign.
RENEGADE FED COULD SWING ELECTIONS
FBI Director James Comey has thrown this presidential election into a royal clusterfuck.
These are the Independents and people vote on the day of an election, it's not just early voting, there's on the day voting also.
New poll: 34 percent 'less likely' to vote for Clinton after new email revelations