63% of Americans Do Not Want Debt Ceiling Raised CBS News/New York Times

[Toro]

The best way to describe not raising the debt ceiling would be to default on 30% of your credit card payments instantly. Let's ask Americans in a poll and see how many think that's a good idea.

There you go again.

Not raising the debt ceiling is not synonymous with defaulting on debt. Revenues are being brought in, and the debt can be serviced so long as the necessary budget measures are taken--the Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution is the most important step in fixing deficit spending, ensuring this never happens again.

We don't know if this is true or not.

Cash flows are dependent on specific dates. It does flow in and out smoothly. Cash flows are lumpy. For example, we need to spend $56 billion on August 15 just to service interest payments and retire debt. I think we will have $12 billion in cash flow on that day. We also have four Treasury auctions between Aug 2 and 15. Total August cash flow is expected to be about $180 billion. So there is a good chance that we may not have enough cash coming in to service the debt on the days it is due. That would constitute a default if the payments are delayed even a day.

 

[Toro]

You can't keep raising the Debt Limit forever. A day of reckoning is coming. And i think even some Socialist/Progressive Democrats understand that. After all,they were supposedly against raising Debt Limits in the past. Check out this current President's own past words while voting against raising Debt Limits. This mess cannot be sustained.

You can keep raising the debt limit forever. What matters are debt ratios, not absolute levels of debt. The debt capacity of the nation is dependent upon the productive capacity of the nation. As long as the economy is growing, we can incur more debt. Its no different than if you make more money, you can incur more debt.

 

[LibocalypseNow]

Hey it is now your 'Sacred patriotic Duty" to raise the Debt Limit. Well that's according to the Democrats anyway. Nice Flip-Flop there Dems. How convenient. What a scam.

Do you have anything to actually to add to the discussion or are you just going to spam like you always do?

Oh I added plenty. That is the Hopey Changey take these days no? It's your "Sacred Patriotic Duty" to raise that Debt Limit now right? But that wasn't your take when the other side had power huh? Seriously,this is probably the biggest and most egregious Flip-Flops in political History by you guys. You should be ashamed. But i know you're not.

 

[boedicca]

You can't keep raising the Debt Limit forever. A day of reckoning is coming. And i think even some Socialist/Progressive Democrats understand that. After all,they were supposedly against raising Debt Limits in the past. Check out this current President's own past words while voting against raising Debt Limits. This mess cannot be sustained.

You can keep raising the debt limit forever. What matters are debt ratios, not absolute levels of debt. The debt capacity of the nation is dependent upon the productive capacity of the nation. As long as the economy is growing, we can incur more debt. Its no different than if you make more money, you can incur more debt.

And that's the problem. We're not growing. So borrowing more to spend what we cannot afford is just Making Things Worse.

 

[Toro]

I like how so many posters are playing armchair economist. Though I guess it's easy to believe it's okay to play russian roulette with a full chamber when it comes to the economy when you have no idea what you're talking about.

How do you know I DON'T know what I am talking about?
I base my sentiments on what I hear from people I deem as qualified to offer sound and educated opinions....just as I am sure you do.
Are you sure those you listen to are more qualified?

Hi.

I'm a money manager. I've spent nearly two decades in the investment business, mostly on the institutional side.

I talk to rich and powerful Wall Streeters all the time. (I wish I were one too, but I'm not!) There are two perceptions on Wall Street about this. You have a small minority who believes that defaulting on the debt is a good thing. They believe that by defaulting, you will force the government to create a long-term solution by hammering out a deal to dramatically cut spending and get the country's fiscal health back. That is the minority. The majority believe that it would be absolutely insane for the US to default. The most common comment I get back is "They're not going to default." Most investors - me included - think it won't happen because the consequences could be catastrophic.

Who is right? I don't know. Nobody knows. Maybe it won't mean anything. Maybe the defaulters will be right. But I think the risks are enormous. And I will get every last dollar I have outside of the US if I think it really might happen.

Hope that helps.

 

[KissMy]

Some of us just voted against Kerry but not exactly pro spendaholic Bush. Bush lost me after Katrina 2005.

my friend Immanuel, who posts here, was the same...he voted ''against kerry'' in 2004, and he stopped supporting president bush AFTER katrina....and when he got tired of counting the men killed in iraq.....

i didn't know there were others similar to him....but u pretty much do....less iraq.

I went through Katrina.... Blanco and Nagin were the real culprits here. Blaming Bush is absurd.

I know Blanco & Nagin were idiots but there is also plenty of blame for Homeland Security. They prevented Rescuers & Volunteers from entering New Orleans.

 

[Toro]

At least the Bushbots had the balls to call Bush out when he fucked up... this crowd will never do that.

That's a blatant lie or just a large amount of naive going on. Conservatives supported Bush in large numbers, even when he was about to leave office.

No it isn't a lie. Some of us had, and duly voiced our opposition to Bush's profligate spending, the steel tariffs, the Medicare drug largess, the way Iraq was handled, John Ashcroft, etc.

Please.

Some of you did. The majority of you didn't.

You can see polls that show conservatives supported Bush throughout, or you can just go peruse some old threads here and see what conservatives were saying.

 

[LibocalypseNow]

So why did this President & Democrats Vote against raising Debt Limits in the past? If it's so wonderful and patriotic to raise Debt Limits,why were they opposed to them in the past? Why the sudden change of heart?

 

[Trajan]

The best way to describe not raising the debt ceiling would be to default on 30% of your credit card payments instantly. Let's ask Americans in a poll and see how many think that's a good idea.

The debt will get serviced. Perhaps we can stop sending welfare checks, congresional paychecks, the POTUS' check, governemnt workers checks, etc.

You don't know that the debt will get serviced. It may, or it may not. Nobody knows. That's part of the problem.

if august 2 blows by they will if they have to; short ss, medicare payments , cut operating budgets, fed employees may not get paid on time, maybe send out IOU's to contractors. I agree that we cannot default, I agree that there will be pain. I don't believe that we will miss our principal and/or interest payments. *shrugs*

 

[skookerasbil]

Newsmax/InsiderAdvantage Poll: Voters Don't Want Debt Ceiling Hike

From the article:

"Sixty-seven percent of GOP voters and 51 percent of independents think raising the debt ceiling is a bad idea. Democratic voters, by comparison favored raising the debt ceiling by a 44 to 21 percent margin."

I think that clearly shows that Democratic voters are more educated on the subject.

 

[Avatar4321]

At least the Bushbots had the balls to call Bush out when he fucked up... this crowd will never do that.

That's a blatant lie or just a large amount of naive going on. Conservatives supported Bush in large numbers, even when he was about to leave office.

i find it diifficult to believe that you don't understand that you can support a person without supporting all their policies and even challenging them on bad ones.

 

[Toro]

The debt will get serviced. Perhaps we can stop sending welfare checks, congresional paychecks, the POTUS' check, governemnt workers checks, etc.

You don't know that the debt will get serviced. It may, or it may not. Nobody knows. That's part of the problem.

if august 2 blows by they will if they have to; short ss, medicare payments , cut operating budgets, fed employees may not get paid on time, maybe send out IOU's to contractors. I agree that we cannot default, I agree that there will be pain. I don't believe that we will miss our principal and/or interest payments. *shrugs*

Nobody knows. That's the problem.

Here's what I think could happen in the market. August 2 rolls by and nothing happens. Maybe you get a bit of a sell-off but the market stabilizes as the two sides keep talking. As each day goes by, the market waits and watches, but doesn't do much. Then, one day, the market falls off a cliff and the Dow is down 500-700 points off what seemingly is no news. The bond market craters and interest rates spike hard. That creates a cascading affect and we get another melt-down. When Congress initially failed to pass TARP, the Dow dropped by over 700 points. I can see a repeat of that.

When I think of Really Big Things, things that are bigger than a the collapse of the Tech bubble and the Financial Crisis, I think of a currency crisis. To me, that's the denouement, the mother of all Big Financial Crises. And defaulting could precipitate a currency crisis. That's why I think this debt ceiling is fucking insane. It's like playing Russian Roulette with five loaded chambers.

Maybe I'm wrong, I don't know. But I'm not sticking around to see what happens.

 

[Trajan]

You don't know that the debt will get serviced. It may, or it may not. Nobody knows. That's part of the problem.

if august 2 blows by they will if they have to; short ss, medicare payments , cut operating budgets, fed employees may not get paid on time, maybe send out IOU's to contractors. I agree that we cannot default, I agree that there will be pain. I don't believe that we will miss our principal and/or interest payments. *shrugs*

Nobody knows. That's the problem.

Here's what I think could happen in the market. August 2 rolls by and nothing happens. Maybe you get a bit of a sell-off but the market stabilizes as the two sides keep talking. As each day goes by, the market waits and watches, but doesn't do much. Then, one day, the market falls off a cliff and the Dow is down 500-700 points off what seemingly is no news. The bond market craters and interest rates spike hard. That creates a cascading affect and we get another melt-down. When Congress initially failed to pass TARP, the Dow dropped by over 700 points. I can see a repeat of that.

When I think of Really Big Things, things that are bigger than a the collapse of the Tech bubble and the Financial Crisis, I think of a currency crisis. To me, that's the denouement, the mother of all Big Financial Crises. And defaulting could precipitate a currency crisis. That's why I think this debt ceiling is fucking insane.

Maybe I'm wrong, I don't know. But I'm not sticking around to see what happens.

Toro old Sun, I give you my personal guarantee, we will not default.

let me ask you, IF you HAD to bet, would bet yes or no? absent a deal?

 

[Modbert]

i find it diifficult to believe that you don't understand that you can support a person without supporting all their policies and even challenging them on bad ones.

Except therein lies the problem, all these people who supposedly disagreed with a numerous amount of Bush policies but kept supporting the guy.

For example, I constantly hear from Conservative Bush supporters that they didn't like Bush's reckless spending. But that doesn't stop them from bashing supporters of President Obama whom they criticize for supporting Obama due to what they consider his reckless spending.

It's hypocrisy really. Like I said before, President Obama is in a lot of ways more like Bush than Conservative supporters of Bush care to admit.

Also, they never challenged Bush on the "bad ones". Like I previously pointed out, the Tea Party did not even emerge until President Obama was President.

 

[Toro]

So why did this President & Democrats Vote against raising Debt Limits in the past? If it's so wonderful and patriotic to raise Debt Limits,why were they opposed to them in the past? Why the sudden change of heart?

Politics.

A better question is if they really thought the debt ceiling wouldn't get raised, would they have voted against it? I'm betting many would not have. Posturing allows a politician to score points with varying constituencies.

 

[Toro]

if august 2 blows by they will if they have to; short ss, medicare payments , cut operating budgets, fed employees may not get paid on time, maybe send out IOU's to contractors. I agree that we cannot default, I agree that there will be pain. I don't believe that we will miss our principal and/or interest payments. *shrugs*

Nobody knows. That's the problem.

Here's what I think could happen in the market. August 2 rolls by and nothing happens. Maybe you get a bit of a sell-off but the market stabilizes as the two sides keep talking. As each day goes by, the market waits and watches, but doesn't do much. Then, one day, the market falls off a cliff and the Dow is down 500-700 points off what seemingly is no news. The bond market craters and interest rates spike hard. That creates a cascading affect and we get another melt-down. When Congress initially failed to pass TARP, the Dow dropped by over 700 points. I can see a repeat of that.

When I think of Really Big Things, things that are bigger than a the collapse of the Tech bubble and the Financial Crisis, I think of a currency crisis. To me, that's the denouement, the mother of all Big Financial Crises. And defaulting could precipitate a currency crisis. That's why I think this debt ceiling is fucking insane.

Maybe I'm wrong, I don't know. But I'm not sticking around to see what happens.

Toro old Sun, I give you my personal guarantee, we will not default.

let me ask you, IF you HAD to bet, would bet yes or no? absent a deal?

Mr. Trajan, my friend.

Let me tell you something I learned a long time ago in this business. There are no guarantees. There are only probabilities. I've seen too many guys get carried out by being too certain something would happen. Truth is, in a complex and highly interconnected world, nobody has any idea what will happen.

If I had to bet, I would bet we default.

 

[WillowTree]

I like how so many posters are playing armchair economist. Though I guess it's easy to believe it's okay to play russian roulette with a full chamber when it comes to the economy when you have no idea what you're talking about.

How do you know I DON'T know what I am talking about?
I base my sentiments on what I hear from people I deem as qualified to offer sound and educated opinions....just as I am sure you do.
Are you sure those you listen to are more qualified?

Hi.

I'm a money manager. I've spent nearly two decades in the investment business, mostly on the institutional side.

I talk to rich and powerful Wall Streeters all the time. (I wish I were one too, but I'm not!) There are two perceptions on Wall Street about this. You have a small minority who believes that defaulting on the debt is a good thing. They believe that by defaulting, you will force the government to create a long-term solution by hammering out a deal to dramatically cut spending and get the country's fiscal health back. That is the minority. The majority believe that it would be absolutely insane for the US to default. The most common comment I get back is "They're not going to default." Most investors - me included - think it won't happen because the consequences could be catastrophic.Who is right? I don't know. Nobody knows. Maybe it won't mean anything. Maybe the defaulters will be right. But I think the risks are enormous. And I will get every last dollar I have outside of the US if I think it really might happen.

Hope that helps.

That's the lie you've all bought into innit? What would be catastrophic is to continue doing what we are doing. I'm not an expert not by a long shot but here's what my common sense tells me.

You've heard me say it before. We're a 50/50 nation with a progressive tax system. The takers will soon outnumber the givers. The unemployment rate is 9.2% (more than likely it's higher). That decreases revenues. Default or not, when the takers outnumber the givers it's all over. You should take your dollars and run. A country that relies on socialism ain't gonna stand. The wealthy Americans alread have their contingency plans ready. Class warfare rarely works either. Misguided Misguided Misguided.. and then of course there's the hypocrisy of obiedoodle. When he was a Senator he said "raising the debt ceiling is a sign of failed leadership." Did you believe him then? or now? I believe him NEVER.

 

[Trajan]

Nobody knows. That's the problem.

Here's what I think could happen in the market. August 2 rolls by and nothing happens. Maybe you get a bit of a sell-off but the market stabilizes as the two sides keep talking. As each day goes by, the market waits and watches, but doesn't do much. Then, one day, the market falls off a cliff and the Dow is down 500-700 points off what seemingly is no news. The bond market craters and interest rates spike hard. That creates a cascading affect and we get another melt-down. When Congress initially failed to pass TARP, the Dow dropped by over 700 points. I can see a repeat of that.

When I think of Really Big Things, things that are bigger than a the collapse of the Tech bubble and the Financial Crisis, I think of a currency crisis. To me, that's the denouement, the mother of all Big Financial Crises. And defaulting could precipitate a currency crisis. That's why I think this debt ceiling is fucking insane.

Maybe I'm wrong, I don't know. But I'm not sticking around to see what happens.

Toro old Sun, I give you my personal guarantee, we will not default.

let me ask you, IF you HAD to bet, would bet yes or no? absent a deal?

Mr. Trajan, my friend.

Let me tell you something I learned a long time ago in this business. There are no guarantees. There are only probabilities. I've seen too many guys get carried out by being too certain something would happen. Truth is, in a complex and highly interconnected world, nobody has any idea what will happen.

If I had to bet, I would bet we default.

touche'.

that sounds like what my old man used to say, (a sometime bookie), 'the half point killed more guys than world war 2'

Actually I am surprised, you would bet if no deal we would default? ....that surprises me and well chills me a bit.

But, I just don't see it, they have had time,Timmy has changed the number what? 3- 4 times? they are preparing for the worst right now and, the number crunchers at treasury, the gnomes that stay thru all the elections etc.

It will as I said be painful..but, I just don't see it. I HOPE we don't have to test the waters ....

 

[hellofromwarsaw]

Just another Pub disaster- typical...

 

[Modbert]

That's the lie you've all bought into innit?.

The majority of Wall Street must have all "bought" into the lie then, huh Willow? But least you have all the answers!