A New Political Era: The 2016-2020 Realignment Is Underway

[guno]

Exciting times to be living in


In 1928, despite Democrat Al Smith’s loss to Republican Herbert Hoover, political scientists found critical changes in American electoral and demographic patterns that began the reversal of the three decade Republican lock on party identification. These changes led to a restructuring and realignment of the major American political parties that lasted for generations. I believe that the 2016 and 2020 elections can repeat the sequence of the 1928 and 1932 resulting in sustained Democratic political domination and a potential long-term hemorrhage of Republican party support on the national level.


Data on the American electorate since 1988 shows a dramatic demographic shift that has now reached critical mass: the white electorate has shrunk from 88% of overall turnout to an anticipated 69% this year. Blacks, Hispanics and Asians are expected to comprise 31% of the 2016 electorate, with Hillary Clinton expected to receive between 80-92% of the non-white vote. Voters under 30 have single digit support for the Republican ticket and single women are repudiating not only Trump, but traditional Republican ideology by dramatic margins. These increasingly powerful demographic constituencies identify and vote significantly Democratic, thus making a Republican national election victory — even if Republicans had a strong, non-controversial candidate — improbable.


A New Political Era: The 2016-2020 Realignment Is Underway

 

[JoeB131]

You see, I don't buy that necessarily.

I think that Asian and Hispanic immigrants are only political blocks now because they have not yet fully assimilated. At one time, the Italians and Germans and Irish were considered important voting blocks, but now, not so much. They've assimilated.

I do think that blacks may never fully assimilate for a number of reasons. NOr will they ever be a block the GOP can tap. I do think that the Asians and Hispanics are very attainable blocks for the GOP, and that the better elements of the GOP message can reach them.

I think Hillary will probably beat Trump handily, but she will be instantly unpopular when she is sworn in. People don't like her. I think the GOP will do very well in the midterms in 2018 and in 2020, they have a pretty good shot at winning the presidency.

 

[guno]

You see, I don't buy that necessarily.

I think that Asian and Hispanic immigrants are only political blocks now because they have not yet fully assimilated. At one time, the Italians and Germans and Irish were considered important voting blocks, but now, not so much. They've assimilated.

I do think that blacks may never fully assimilate for a number of reasons. NOr will they ever be a block the GOP can tap. I do think that the Asians and Hispanics are very attainable blocks for the GOP, and that the better elements of the GOP message can reach them.

I think Hillary will probably beat Trump handily, but she will be instantly unpopular when she is sworn in. People don't like her. I think the GOP will do very well in the midterms in 2018 and in 2020, they have a pretty good shot at winning the presidency.

well with the losers the republicans have been putting up national election wins look doubtful

 

[JoeB131]

well with the losers the republicans have been putting up national election wins look doubtful

If the Republicans had nominated Kasich, Rubio, Jindal, Walker, or a couple of others, they'd have won this year.

Hillary is really an awful candidate. People don't like her. It's the only reason why Trump is still viable at this point.

The best thing she could do for her party is announce after she wins is that she's going to be a one-term president and she's grooming Kaine to succeed her.

 

[Old Rocks]

Yes, Trump is going to force the GOP, if they survive as a viable political entity, to re-evaluate their stands on many subjects. I hope the Eisenhower Republicans can take the party back. Otherwise, it will go the way of the Whigs.