About to crash

[Tom Paine 1949]

A good read for the upper quintile....
View attachment 863501


… have a grand Apocalypse

yer friend
Sparky

~S~

I haven’t read this book, nor will I get around to reading it.

Reviews vary, but my impression is that the topic is just too broad, and our own predicament rather disimilar in its specifics to make conclusions or comparisons with the past and pre-industrial societies very enlightening … even if the author is as excellent a writer and thinker as Jared Diamond.

Diamond’s book Guns, Germs and Steel should be read by all, or at least by everyone who comments without thinking on the historical reasons for “uneven development” among nations and peoples of the world.

I think it was a masterpiece of popular but still objective writing and thinking about this subject. It exposed much of the widespread “racial” and “civilizational” arrogance of “winners” in the societal race to sit at the pinnacle of modern civilization and power … without any “liberal moralizing” whatever.

 

[BackAgain]

So you can't explain why I would criticize a president for a 3.5% unemployment rate?

I just did. Are you always this dense or does the affliction only strike yiu
when you hear the word “Trump?”

Sounds like you're the one unhinged.

It would. But, that’s just your TDS babbling in your ear.

You should maybe see someone about that. Have a nice day.

You should maybe seek psychiatric help. Nah. No maybe about.

 

[Freedomisneverfree]

Joe has destroyed our economy.

 

[sparky]

Joe has destroyed our economy.

Jill has to tell Joe he's potus every morning...........~S~

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

There is no sign the economy is about to crash. On the contrary it is doing surprisingly well. Employment and wages up, productivity up, consumer sentiment improving, inflation steadily returning to pre-Covid levels, corporate profits likely to surprise to the upside next year, new factory construction at triple or more the level of the Trump era, and — my favorite — all this is happening during a return to reasonable interest rates, which allow middle class folks to save at good rates (FDIC protected CDs above 5%) without gambling in the stock market casino — which by the way is also way up at the moment and far above Trump levels.

Can’t give the credit for all this to the Biden Administration of course — though it and the Fed have been doing a competent job, especially in encouraging reshoring / domestic high tech and meeting the inflation challenge.

There are plenty of possible “Black Swans” out there, however, and our fiscal spending / debt is still getting worse, but if this unexpected expansion continues — a big if considering the political stakes — most Americans will feel better off next year.

Of course the bottom 20%-30% of Americans will still struggle making ends meet. That never changes. But the great majority of skilled and even semi-skilled working people should do better. Most of the middle class and professionals should thrive, as their real income from all sources rises.

 

[Flopper]

There is no sign the economy is about to crash. On the contrary it is doing surprisingly well. Employment and wages up, productivity up, consumer sentiment improving, inflation steadily returning to pre-Covid levels, corporate profits likely to surprise to the upside next year, new factory construction at triple or more the level of the Trump era, and — my favorite — all this is happening during a return to reasonable interest rates, which allow middle class folks to save at good rates without gambling in the stock market casino — which by the way is also way up at the moment above Trump levels.

Can’t give the credit for all this to the Biden Administration of course — though it and the Fed have been doing a competent job, especially in encouraging reshoring / domestic high tech and meeting the inflation challenge.

There are plenty of possible “Black Swans” out there, however, and our fiscal spending / debt is still getting worse, but if this unexpected expansion continues — a big if considering the political stakes — most Americans will feel better off next year.

Of course the bottom 20%-30% of Americans will still struggle making ends meet. That never changes. But the great majority of skilled and even semi-skilled working people should do better. Most of the middle class and professionals should thrive, as their real income from all sources rises.The DJI has just hit its highest level since Jan. 5, 1922 as cj

There is no sign the economy is about to crash. On the contrary it is doing surprisingly well. Employment and wages up, productivity up, consumer sentiment improving, inflation steadily returning to pre-Covid levels, corporate profits likely to surprise to the upside next year, new factory construction at triple or more the level of the Trump era, and — my favorite — all this is happening during a return to reasonable interest rates, which allow middle class folks to save at good rates (FDIC protected CDs above 5%) without gambling in the stock market casino — which by the way is also way up at the moment and far above Trump levels.

Can’t give the credit for all this to the Biden Administration of course — though it and the Fed have been doing a competent job, especially in encouraging reshoring / domestic high tech and meeting the inflation challenge.

There are plenty of possible “Black Swans” out there, however, and our fiscal spending / debt is still getting worse, but if this unexpected expansion continues — a big if considering the political stakes — most Americans will feel better off next year.

Of course the bottom 20%-30% of Americans will still struggle making ends meet. That never changes. But the great majority of skilled and even semi-skilled working people should do better. Most of the middle class and professionals should thrive, as their real income from all sources rises.

The DJI has hit the previous all time high set on Jan. 5, 2022 as the likelihood of a 2024 recession dwindles.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

The DJI has hit the previous all time high set on Jan. 5, 2022 as the likelihood of a 2024 recession dwindles.

Right. I tend to use the S&P, which is more representative of where ordinary people put their stock investments, which is now at 4604. At its best under Trump in early October 2020 it was just … 3,479, so it is about 33% higher now.

 

[sparky]

There are plenty of possible “Black Swans” out there

What about all the recent bank runs?
Locally , nobody can cash anything past 4 zeros right now

Or are we slowly going digital?

~S~

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

What about all the recent bank runs?
Locally , nobody can cash anything past 4 zeros right now

Or are we slowly going digital?

~S~

I don’t know where you live or bank, sparky , so can’t say why your bank evidently has this policy. Probably many banks have lowered their “cash on hand,” but I doubt that has anything to do with any fear of bank runs. More likely it is a natural result of the gradual changeover to a far less paper-dollar-centric economy, and concern over security.

Personally, I don’t remember the last time I used cash to pay for a big purchase or to pay a big bill. No ordinary thug can walk into a bank and steal oodles of cash that just ain’t there anymore! That means banks pay for fewer security guards too … but of course digital fraud and theft are a big danger now.

I just checked: “The number of US bank robberies peaked in 1991 when 9,388 were committed. The number has declined pretty much ever since. By 2021, it was just 1,724 after hitting a 51-year low of 1,500 in 2020.”

Lastly, You may notice that “increasing credit card debt” is always listed.as a big problem — but it really isn’t an indicator of debt nearly as much as an indicator of expanding consumption and business! That is because U.S. consumers today use their credit cards for all purchases and have learned to avoid all fees by paying off their balances completely every month. Only fools (or a small proportion of the truly desperate) still pay the outrageous fees credit card companies are happy to charge them.

 

[gipper]

I don’t know where you live or bank, sparky , so can’t say why your bank evidently has this policy. Probably many banks have lowered their “cash on hand,” but I doubt that has anything to do with any fear of bank runs. More likely it is a natural result of the gradual changeover to a far less paper-dollar-centric economy, and concern over security.

Personally, I don’t remember the last time I used cash to pay for a big purchase or to pay a big bill. No ordinary thug can walk into a bank and steal oodles of cash that just ain’t there anymore! That means banks pay for fewer security guards too … but of course digital fraud and theft are a big danger now.

I just checked: “The number of US bank robberies peaked in 1991 when 9,388 were committed. The number has declined pretty much ever since. By 2021, it was just 1,724 after hitting a 51-year low of 1,500 in 2020.”

Lastly, You may notice that “increasing credit card debt” is always listed.as a big problem — but it really isn’t an indicator of debt nearly as much as an indicator of expanding consumption and business! That is because U.S. consumers today use their credit cards for all purchases and have learned to avoid all fees by paying off their balances completely every month. Only fools (or a small proportion of the truly desperate) still pay the outrageous fees credit card companies are happy to charge them.

Fools? I suspect many Americans are forced to pay those outlandish cc interest rates because they CAN’T pay off the balance.

High cc interest rates should be outlawed, but our corrupt government wants citizens trapped in debt serfdom. So, they protect the cc companies.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

High cc interest rates should be outlawed,

i still remembered when you pretended not to be a big government stooge

 

[gipper]

i still remembered when you pretended not to be a big government stooge

That’s hardly supporting big government asshole.

I know we can always count on you supporting the big banks.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

That’s hardly supporting big government asshole.

But of course it is, you want father government to keep the people safe from themselves.

 

[gipper]

But of course it is, you want father government to keep the people safe from themselves.

Supporting a crime, which absurdly high interest rates are, means you’re a dumb ass.

I support helping the people and you support helping fat cat bankers.

THINK FOR ONCE!

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Supporting a crime, which absurdly high interest rates are, means you’re a dumb ass.

I support helping the people and you support helping fat cat bankers.

THINK FOR ONCE!

it is not a crime as nobody has ever been forced to get a credit card, it is a personal choice.

I support people making their own damn choices, that includes the people wanting the card and those offering the card.

 

[Flopper]

Fools? I suspect many Americans are forced to pay those outlandish cc interest rates because they CAN’T pay off the balance.

High cc interest rates should be outlawed, but our corrupt government wants citizens trapped in debt serfdom. So, they protect the cc companies.

By historical standards, interest rates are pretty much on par with what they have been in the past. Interest rates have shot up over last 18 months due the FED raising rates to slow down inflation. With the slowing of inflation, the fed is beginning slow down rate hikes and it is likely that the fed will begin cutting rates sometime in 2024.

 

[sparky]

All i know is, anytime the gub'mit is doing it's best bagdad bob, i'm looking to harvest......

~S~

 

[Harpy Eagle]

So, it has been 126 days since the prediction of a crash "about" to happen, any idea when it might actually happen?

 

[sparky]

So, it has been 126 days since the prediction of a crash "about" to happen, any idea when it might actually happen?

what happened the last number of crashes GG??

~S~

 

[Harpy Eagle]

what happened the last number of crashes GG??

~S~

not polite to answer a question with a question.