Battle of Bakhmud won by Russia

[JohnDB]

All the while....tick tock, tick tock.....

We keep looming closer and closer to the point where ALL of the Russian financial reserves are going to run out. The Ruble is currently being supported in an ongoing fashion by the government....and that reserve is going to run out soon.

So while Russia is now on the defensive in Ukraine and their Ruble is heading towards free fall....the military units are ununified and fighting amongst themselves...the Russian civillian people are war weary (losing family members to this war) Putin gets to watch television and play games on his phone unconcerned about how his nation is literally facing imminent collapse.

But his propagandists are still at work on this forum. Selling outlandish lies and wet dreams of getting rich by letting Russia run our lives.

 

[toomuchtime_]

They consider the very facts of NATO expansion, militarisation of the Eastern Europe, resurrection of Nazism in Baltic states and Ukraine as a clear and open threat. And when they see the threat - they eliminate it. When there is a choice between peace and war - they (as almost anyone else) choose peace. But if there is just a choice between "attack first" and "be attacked", they (as almost anyone else) choose "attack first", because it's safer. Previous time this mistake cost them 40 million lives. And they are not going to repeat it.
And no. It's not a war, yet. It's merely a "military operation".

You have faithfully repeated Putin's lies which the entire world has rejected. Why would you want to make yourself look so ridiculous by posting such nonsense that the whole world has already rejected?

 

[JohnDB]

I find it hilarious how Sunni Man disagrees with me when Prigozhin and others in the military are publicly arguing and declaring disaster and its ALL over the internet...but somehow I'm wrong?

 

[Silver Cat]

You are mumbling, a bit incoherently.

Who exactly is this “Russia” that “prefers … nuclear attack against the USA to Russian acquiesce”?

I don’t think this is true of Putin or his ”silovicki.”

Personally Putin definitely prefer to fight a nuclear war to acquiescence. Because defeat means certain death to him, and fighting a nuclear war gives him a good chance of survival.
Siloviki, because of the same reason prefer to win a nuclear war to be defeated in a conventional conflict. And right now, they are making their preparation to (if it is necessary) fight and win it, including open discussions in professional journals (like "Voennaya Mysl").

Not true of the Russian people either.

It depends on your wording of the question. If you ask an ordinary Russian guy, say:
" What do you prefer:
a) allow NATO conquere Ukraine and attack Russia, which means 10% chance of your survival and 100% chance of significant decrease of your wealth.
b) be mobilized, fight and win a war against the whole NATO conventionally (and with some tactical nukes), which means 50% chance of your survival and 100% chance of the years of the hard working.
c) nuclear attack against the USA after the proper preparations, which means 90% chance of your survival and 50% chance of significant increase of your wealth?

And most of them will answer something like "Nuke them all! " Actually, nuclear weapons are pretty emphatised in Russia.
Say, back in 2015, in almost unstressed situation, roughly 60% of the Russians agreed to sign a petition about launching nuclear attack against the USA.

Your comment about the Biden Administration doing nothing to “defend America” from a hypothetical Russian nuclear attack … also seems to make little sense to me.

There are three main types of the deterrence:
1. Deterrence of the direct Russian attack against the American nuclear forces (which demands the Credible Second Strike Capability).
2. Deterrence of the extremely provocative Russian behavior which is not a direct attack against American nuclear forces (which demands the Credible First Strike Capability)
3. Deterrence of the minor nuclear provocations, (which demands the Limited nuclear war capability).


And right now American Deterrence type I is quite weak. In the case of well-prepared Russian counter-force attack, the USA hardly will be able to kill more than 1 million of Russians.

That doesn’t mean nuclear war is impossible of course. The war in Ukraine, whether it leads to the collapse of Russia, a regional temporary Russian “victory” or “defeat” — all can in certain circumstances bring world war closer, or lead to “accidental” miscalculation and a nuclear holocaust.

Miscalculations are bad, but what is really important, it's a possibility of the well-calculated Russian attack.

At this point there are no certainties. All sides (in Ukraine, Russia, the West) and all Americans should be worried and cautious. Historic U.S. policies of expanding NATO and backing Ukrainian nationalists may have been mistaken, but now “the die has been cast” and the West must not simply abandon Ukraine to Putin’s tender mercies.

The mistakes should be corrected. Anyway, if the Russians are ready to escalate and the USA are not ready, it means that the Russians can win just by the raising the bets (while they, looks like prefer to win with minimal stakes).

The Biden Administration has been rightly cautious in increasing its military aid to Kiev, but it has been drawn further into the quagmire by circumstances. I don’t believe the U.S. will escalate much further, but you are right that the Russians — out of a sense of desperation — might.

Remember most Western military experts did not really expect the Ukrainians to stop the initial Feb. 2020 Russian assault.

The Ukrainians didn't. Western involvement did. And now the Russians are preparing to fight the NATO.

Behind the scenes, there are objective forces working toward a ceasefire or even a tentative “frozen conflict” (if neither side collapses), but no side at this point seems genuinely ready to make necessary compromises for “peace.”

But behind the scene, there are also other objective forces, working towards the escalation of the conflict.

 

[Silver Cat]

You have faithfully repeated Putin's lies which the entire world has rejected. Why would you want to make yourself look so ridiculous by posting such nonsense that the whole world has already rejected?

Man, you are so funny repeating your mantras about "the whole world"... 85% of the world's population has rejected Obama-Biden's lies.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Personally Putin definitely prefer to fight a nuclear war to acquiescence. Because defeat means certain death to him, and fighting a nuclear war gives him a good chance of survival.
Siloviki, because of the same reason prefer to win a nuclear war to be defeated in a conventional conflict. And right now, they are making their preparation to (if it is necessary) fight and win it, including open discussions in professional journals (like "Voennaya Mysl").




It depends on your wording of the question. If you ask an ordinary Russian guy, say:
" What do you prefer:
a) allow NATO conquere Ukraine and attack Russia, which means 10% chance of your survival and 100% chance of significant decrease of your wealth.
b) be mobilized, fight and win a war against the whole NATO conventionally (and with some tactical nukes), which means 50% chance of your survival and 100% chance of the years of the hard working.
c) nuclear attack against the USA after the proper preparations, which means 90% chance of your survival and 50% chance of significant increase of your wealth?

And most of them will answer something like "Nuke them all! " Actually, nuclear weapons are pretty emphatised in Russia.
Say, back in 2015, in almost unstressed situation, roughly 60% of the Russians agreed to sign a petition about launching nuclear attack against the USA.




There are three main types of the deterrence:
1. Deterrence of the direct Russian attack against the American nuclear forces (which demands the Credible Second Strike Capability).
2. Deterrence of the extremely provocative Russian behavior which is not a direct attack against American nuclear forces (which demands the Credible First Strike Capability)
3. Deterrence of the minor nuclear provocations, (which demands the Limited nuclear war capability).


And right now American Deterrence type I is quite weak. In the case of well-prepared Russian counter-force attack, the USA hardly will be able to kill more than 1 million of Russians.


Miscalculations are bad, but what is really important, it's a possibility of the well-calculated Russian attack.


The mistakes should be corrected. Anyway, if the Russians are ready to escalate and the USA are not ready, it means that the Russians can win just by the raising the bets (while they, looks like prefer to win with minimal stakes).


The Ukrainians didn't. Western involvement did. And now the Russians are preparing to fight the NATO.

But behind the scene, there are also other objective forces, working towards the escalation of the conflict.

Excellent reasons to assassinate putin immediately.

 

[Silver Cat]

I find it hilarious how Sunni Man disagrees with me when Prigozhin and others in the military are publicly arguing and declaring disaster and its ALL over the internet...but somehow I'm wrong?

You just don't read the context of their discussion. And no, Prigizin in not in the military. He is a civilian businessman. You know, something like Lord Vorloupulous and his 2000 cooks.

 

[Silver Cat]

Excellent reasons to assassinate putin immediately.

It won't change anything. It's not about Putin's individuality, it's about American weakness.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Man, you are so funny repeating your mantras about "the whole world"... 85% of the world's population has rejected Obama-Biden's lies.

Your head is lodged so far up Putin's ass, you cannot see the rest of the world. When the USGA voted on Putin's war, the nations of the world overwhelmingly rejected his lies and demanded Russia withdraw from Ukraine.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

It won't change anything. It's not about Putin's individuality, it's about American weakness.

No it isn't. How absurd.

Putin knows we could turn his entire army to dust with one arm tied behind our back. That's why the evil maniac is making nuclear threats.

 

[Silver Cat]

Your head is lodged so far up Putin's ass, you cannot see the rest of the world. When the USGA voted on Putin's war, the nations of the world overwhelmingly rejected his lies and demanded Russia withdraw from Ukraine.

Oh, if all the problems could be solved by the voting... The problem is not about the voting, the problem is about real actions.

 

[Silver Cat]

No it isn't. How absurd.

Putin knows we could turn his entire army to dust with one arm tied behind our back. That's why the evil maniac is making nuclear threats.

Sure we couldn't. We just don't have enough of nukes for this, especially in the scenario in which the Russians attack first. And Putin isn't a maniac, he and his allies just exploit American vulnerability.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Oh, if all the problems could be solved by the voting... The problem is not about the voting, the problem is about real actions.

That's the kind of stupidity that has made Russia a pariah state, that has caused Russia's oil and gas reserves to lose 30% of their value and that has prevented Russia from fulfilling military orders to India and Serbia and Iraq, which is causing them to look elsewhere for military supplies.

 

[JohnDB]

Sure we couldn't. We just don't have enough of nukes for this, especially in the scenario in which the Russians attack first. And Putin isn't a maniac, he and his allies just exploit American vulnerability.

For whatever reason you are under the illusion that the USA's nuclear missiles are all located in the 48 contiguous states.

Seeing how you are either a paid propagandist or just doing Russian bidding for free....you really have no idea where they really. And I'm not telling.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Sure we couldn't. We just don't have enough of nukes for this, especially in the scenario in which the Russians attack first. And Putin isn't a maniac, he and his allies just exploit American vulnerability.

Your nuclear fantasies only serve to highlight the fact that Russia cannot win this war and Putin was and remains an idiot in starting it.

 

[JohnDB]

That's the kind of stupidity that has made Russia a pariah state, that has caused Russia's oil and gas reserves to lose 30% of their value and that has prevented Russia from fulfilling military orders to India and Serbia and Iraq, which is causing them to look elsewhere for military supplies.

Egypt has plenty of extra Russian munitions for sale....but they refuse to let Russia have them back. They are currently on their way to Ukraine because Ukranians just picked up a lot of new equipment around Bakhmut.

It just sucks to be Russian right now.

 

[Silver Cat]

For whatever reason you are under the illusion that the USA's nuclear missiles are all located in the 48 contiguous states.

 

[Silver Cat]

Your nuclear fantasies only serve to highlight the fact that Russia cannot win this war and Putin was and remains an idiot in starting it.

It's not a war yet, and Russia definitely can win it. The only question is the price to be paid by the Russians, Ukrainians, Europeans and, what is mostly important, by the Americans.

 

[JohnDB]

It's not a war yet, and Russia definitely can win it. The only question is the price to be paid by the Russians, Ukrainians, Europeans and, what is mostly important, by the Americans.

Russia can not win it....not a chance. Although Russia can and will suffer from all the fallout from a nuclear exchange with America. The nationality of Russian will cease to exist because of the resulting radioactive fallout and successful strikes.

 

[gipper]

Russia can not win it....not a chance. Although Russia can and will suffer from all the fallout from a nuclear exchange with America. The nationality of Russian will cease to exist because of the resulting radioactive fallout and successful strikes.

WTF? Are you nuts? Nuclear exchange! WTF? Do you have a death wish dumb ass? Do you not know Russia has the ability to incinerate every major city in the US? You fucking warmongers are going to get us all killed.