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Here's What Would Happen if a Solar Storm Wiped Out Technology as We Know It
Here's What Would Happen if a Solar Storm Wiped Out Technology as We Know It
It's a strange and lucky irony that the worst solar storm in recorded history happened at a time when human civilisation wasn't yet uniquely vulnerable to the Sun's inescapable geomagnetic fury.www.sciencealert.com
" . . .The Carrington Event – aka the solar storm of 1859 – saw a huge solar coronal mass ejection unleashed at Earth's protective magnetosphere, producing an epic geomagnetic storm the scale of which modern civilisation had never before witnessed.
As a barrage of charged particles collided with Earth's magnetic field, intense auroras lit up skies around the world – but with strong electrical currents sweeping across the globe, the repercussions went far beyond colourful visuals.
Telegraph systems covering Europe and North America went down, as sparks flew from equipment, giving electric shocks to their human operators and even starting fires. Amid the electrified tumult, machines that had been disconnected from their power supplies eerily continued to relay their truncated messages.
It was, in other words, technological chaos. Yet from the comparatively futuristic perspective of 2018, as far as tech apocalypses go, it all sounds rather quaint and contained.
If a similar-scale solar storm were to strike Earth's pervasive technological systems right now – over a century and a half later – what would happen?
Nobody knows for sure how bad things would be, but given how scarily reliant we are on today's deep-rooted technological and electronic superstructures – compared to the primitive and relatively rare contraptions of 1859 – it would certainly be no picnic.. . .
<snip>
We aren't ready for a solar storm smackdown
From CNET Magazine: The sun is constantly sending out megatons of charged particles that could crash the world's electrical grid. Here's what we can do about it.
It's a solar smackdown!
Here’s what we can do about all those electric-grid crashing charged particles heading our way.www.cnet.com
A Carrington-class solar storm would be dramatically worse.
The basic problem stems from electrical currents that solar storms generate in the Earth's ionosphere. Those, in turn, induce currents in the power grid that can lead to two unfortunate outcomes. One is voltage collapse — a type of power blackout that can affect entire electric grids. The other is transformer failure.
Transformers change one voltage to another — increasing it for long-distance power transmission and decreasing it for household use. Solar storms could destroy power grid transformers, which can be as big as a house, cost more than $10 million and take 12 to 18 months to replace. It's one reason a science and engineering firm called Metatech warned in 2008 that a massive solar storm could cost the US economy between $1 trillion and $2 trillion and take four to 10 years to recover from.
That projection is too dire, though, say transformer experts at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) as well as Scott Backhaus, an expert in grid resiliency at LANL.
Of the potential impacts, the one everybody is concerned about is a large power transformer overheating," says Backhaus. "What would probably happen before that would be voltage collapse."
While not as devastating, voltage collapse can still cause regional problems. And the more widespread the blackouts, the harder a recovery becomes because broader outages require power plants to initiate a "black start": using their own power sources, like diesel generators, for the electricity needed to restart the whole plant.
Solar storms cause other problems, too. Satellites beam navigation radio signals to everything from your phone and your car's sat-nav system to oil rigs and airplanes. Massive bursts of charged particles can hobble those services, as well as phone calls and internet data transfers.
Space weather also can expose aircraft to high levels of radiation. The Earth's magnetic field ordinarily provides protection except near the north and south magnetic poles, but CMEs push that radiation down toward the equator. That means transcontinental flights that usually travel over a pole must detour to less direct routes. . . ."
When Will A Massive Solar Storm Knockout Our High-Tech Society? That Depends On Who You Ask
When Will A Massive Solar Storm Knockout Our High-Tech Society? That Depends On Who You Ask
Geologists uncover more evidence for massive solar storms in Earth’s past while mathematicians calculate the probability of a catastrophic geomagnetic storm is lower than estimated.www.forbes.com
". . In separate research, mathematicians think they’ve proved that massive solar storms are more unlikely than previously thought. Three mathematicians and a physicist from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), the Mathematics Research Centre (CRM) and the Barcelona Graduate School of Mathematics (BGSMath) calculated that the probability in the next decade of a potentially catastrophic event for the Earth's telecommunications, of ‘Carrington Event’ proportions, is between 0.46% and 1.88%.
That’s far less than estimated before. "In 2012, the results reported in scientific literature estimated the probability to be around 12%, ten times more than our more pessimistic estimation,” says David Moriña, first author of the study and postdoctoral researcher explains.. . "
Carrington Event - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
My analysis is, a more diverse society, with multiple localized energy sources, with higher inputs from wind and energy would, indeed would mitigate this danger. This is not to say, localities should also have other energy sources. The more energy sources you have, the better. Diversity breeds resilience and reliability.
OTH, a centralized controlled society, completely reliant on Smart tech for command, control, data gathering computation inputs, outputs, and distribution networks is a critical weakness. A confederated, decentralized social sysem, just like a decentralized energy distribution network and resource network, just like a decentrialized political network, would be in the interest of the entire human race.
In this way, if any part of the planet takes a critical hit, the other parts of the planet can help come to the rescue. Making the whole system so integrated, that a killing blow to one part? Brings the whole deck of cards down. . . this is suicidal idiocy. But you can't tell these global psychopaths anything.
That's true.As your one article indicated "
That projection is too dire, though, say transformer experts at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) as well as Scott Backhaus, an expert in grid resiliency at LANL.
Of the potential impacts, the one everybody is concerned about is a large power transformer overheating," says Backhaus. "What would probably happen before that would be voltage collapse."
While not as devastating, voltage collapse can still cause regional problems. And the more widespread the blackouts, the harder a recovery becomes because broader outages require power plants to initiate a "black start": using their own power sources, like diesel generators, for the electricity needed to restart the whole plant."
That is what happened in Quebec Canada in 89 when they got whacked by one. Messed things up for a few hours then it was business as usual.
energyskeptic.com
That's true.
But. . . we are talking about magnitude here.
. . . on top of that, as I have posted, no one is really sure about the true implications. You may be right, I may be wrong. OTH? If one the size of Carrington pops off, and takes out all the satellites? Who really knows. I don't. If you claim you are sure? Good for you.
From a skeptic site. .. if it pleases you?
EMP effect on electrical transformers | Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse
Preservation of Knowedge, peak oil, ecology -
". . . The strong electric currents that would flow through the the electrical grid during a repeat of the Carrington event are likely to cause melting and burn-through of large-amperage copper windings and leads in electrical transformers. These multi-ton, multi-million dollar devices generally cannot be repaired in the field, and if damaged in this manner, they need to be replaced with new units. There are only a handful of spares in reserve, so most of the region affected by the collapse would remain without power until new transformers could be custom built. During the March 13, 1989 Superstorm, geomagnetic-induced currents (GICs) melted the internal windings of a 500kV transformer in the Salem Nuclear plant in southern New Jersey (Figure 3). The entire nuclear plant was unable to operate until this damaged transformer was replaced. Fortunately, a spare from a canceled nuclear plant in Washington State was available, and the Salem plant was able to reopen 40 days later. Had the spare not been available, a new custom-built transformer would have been required, potentially idling the power plant for years. The typical manufacture lead times for these transformers are 12 months or more. According to a January 2009 press release from Metatech, Inc., 300 Extra High Voltage (EHV) transformers in the U.S. would be at risk of permanent damage and require replacement in the event of a geomagnetic storm as intense as the 1921 or 1859 events. Here’s where it gets really scary. According to the press release:
* Manufacturing capability in the world for EHV-class transformers continues to be limited relative to present market demand for these devices. Further, manufacturers would be unable to rapidly supply the large number of replacement transformers needed should the U.S. or other power grids suffer a major catastrophic loss of EHV Transformers.
.
* Manufacturers presently have a backlog of nearly 3 years for all EHV transformers (230 kV and above). The earliest delivery time presently quoted for a new order is early 2011.
.
* Only one plant exists in the U.S. capable of manufacturing a transformer up to 345 kV. No manufacturing capability exists in the U.S. at present for 500 kV and 765 kV transformers, which represent the largest group of At-Risk transformers in the U.S.. .. "
Your ignorance is showing. There has not been another CME hit the Earth of the magnitude of the Carrington Event in the period between then and now. I am sure that there are ways to harden enough critical equipment to get civilization going after such an event. But that will be costly, and require international cooperation. Not likely to happen.I think you are being a bit melodramatic. We get hit with these things from time to time and the effects are generally localized.
The solar storm that disrupted Quebec was several orders of magnitude weaker than the Carrington Event.As your one article indicated "
That projection is too dire, though, say transformer experts at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) as well as Scott Backhaus, an expert in grid resiliency at LANL.
Of the potential impacts, the one everybody is concerned about is a large power transformer overheating," says Backhaus. "What would probably happen before that would be voltage collapse."
While not as devastating, voltage collapse can still cause regional problems. And the more widespread the blackouts, the harder a recovery becomes because broader outages require power plants to initiate a "black start": using their own power sources, like diesel generators, for the electricity needed to restart the whole plant."
That is what happened in Quebec Canada in 89 when they got whacked by one. Messed things up for a few hours then it was business as usual.
I still have all of mine. Since they include both the road, including 2 ruts with 18" high sage between them, and the topographical altitude lines, I find that them more useful than the instructions of one of those black boxes.Wow! If we lose the satellites guiding Waze, I'd have to find all my paper maps. Fuuuuuuucccck
A Carrington Event would be bad news. However, it appears that the sun has even stronger events that could have very negative effects on our civilization;
I still have all of mine. Since they include both the road, including 2 ruts with 18" high sage between them, and the topographical altitude lines, I find that them more useful than the instructions of one of those black boxes.
Sure it was......The solar storm that disrupted Quebec was several orders of magnitude weaker than the Carrington Event.
Your ignorance is showing. There has not been another CME hit the Earth of the magnitude of the Carrington Event in the period between then and now. I am sure that there are ways to harden enough critical equipment to get civilization going after such an event. But that will be costly, and require international cooperation. Not likely to happen.
The sun choose not to cooperate. Right now we are in a very active solar cycle, just as this predicted;
www.sciencealert.com
LOL I started working at 19, and retired at 76. For the most part as a millwright. Yes, in that trade, you look for things to be afraid of. Because if you fail to lock out just one energy source, that may be the last time you fail to lockout. We saw the cost of failure to look at possible hazards in the failure of the Texas grid in February. It cost lives and many millions of dollars. The cost of winterizing their gas valves, water lines in the coal and nuclear generation plants, and winterizing the wind turbines would have been far less than the costs of that grid failure.Just looking for things to be afraid of ... sheesh ... drop some acid and chill out ...
The link you posted claims NASA predicted similar sunspot activity to cycle 24 but NASA's website says different....The sun choose not to cooperate. Right now we are in a very active solar cycle, just as this predicted;
Our Sun Has Entered a New Cycle, And It Could Be One of The Strongest Ever Recorded
MICHELLE STARR
8 DECEMBER 2020
The Sun may be in for a very busy time. According to new predictions, the next maximum in its activity cycles could be one of the strongest we've seen.
This is in direct contradiction to the official solar weather forecast from NASA and the NOAA, but if it bears out, it could confirm a theory about solar activity cycles that scientists have been working on for years.
Our Sun Has Entered a New Cycle, And It Could Be One of The Strongest Ever Recorded
The Sun may be in for a very busy time.
www.nasa.gov
The link you posted claims NASA predicted similar sunspot activity to cycle 24 but NASA's website says different....
The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.
Get ready for another Dalton Minimum, colder weather and a death nail to your ridiculousness.
Solar Activity Forecast for Next Decade Favorable for Exploration - NASA
The last astronauts of the Apollo program were lucky. Not just because they were chosen to fly to the Moon, but because they missed some really bad weather en
www.solen.info
That's what happens after a solar minimum is reached.View attachment 545855
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
Looks like it is headed back up.
LOL I started working at 19, and retired at 76. For the most part as a millwright. Yes, in that trade, you look for things to be afraid of. Because if you fail to lock out just one energy source, that may be the last time you fail to lockout. We saw the cost of failure to look at possible hazards in the failure of the Texas grid in February. It cost lives and many millions of dollars. The cost of winterizing their gas valves, water lines in the coal and nuclear generation plants, and winterizing the wind turbines would have been far less than the costs of that grid failure.
