CBS News poll: Clinton 46%, Trump 39%

[owebo]

What a fucking joke of a poll....


Here is a snippet of the methodology.....

The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request.

That is not the real problem with the poll. They used 7% of people who likely won't vote and 12% or people who only think they probably will vote.

They also selected people in the home upon successful engagement of landline calls....

That is not as problematic to me either as that about 1/6th of the people polled apparently aren't even registered to vote. It is hard to know with all these things which way the polls may have been skewed, but they definitely seem to have been way heavy on unlikely voters.

Democrats have been asking for the youngest adult in the house when they cherry pick, assuming strong indoctrination....

 

[owebo]

That always happens when media ask more Democrats than Republicans and independents.

Another idiot who is clueless about sampling

And then, there is you......

 

[Dekster]

What a fucking joke of a poll....


Here is a snippet of the methodology.....

The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request.

That is not the real problem with the poll. They used 7% of people who likely won't vote and 12% or people who only think they probably will vote.

They also selected people in the home upon successful engagement of landline calls....

That is not as problematic to me either as that about 1/6th of the people polled apparently aren't even registered to vote. It is hard to know with all these things which way the polls may have been skewed, but they definitely seem to have been way heavy on unlikely voters.

Democrats have been asking for the youngest adult in the house when they cherry pick, assuming strong indoctrination....

It may be the cellphone thing gets more young, first time or unlikely voters. I know a lot of people who will not answer their cell unless they know the caller because of all the "This is the IRS and you owe us money"/"You won a free cruise"-type telemarketing scams.

 

[NYcarbineer]

If the CBS poll is biased, why did it have Trump ahead just a week ago?

 

[dannyboys]

Attention LIBs. Please remove all sharp objects from your houses.
Politics - Los Angeles Times

 

[NYcarbineer]

The poll would be more helpful if it tracked the original group through both conventions.

This poll had Trump ahead by 1 last week. It had them tied before the conventions.

 

[saveliberty]

The poll would be more helpful if it tracked the original group through both conventions.

This poll had Trump ahead by 1 last week. It had them tied before the conventions.

Doesn't look like they called the same people back NYC.

 

[AceRothstein]

Attention LIBs. Please remove all sharp objects from your houses.
Politics - Los Angeles Times

Congratulations, you found the outlier.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The poll would be more helpful if it tracked the original group through both conventions.

This poll had Trump ahead by 1 last week. It had them tied before the conventions.

Doesn't look like they called the same people back NYC.

Is this a new goalpost position? It's hilarious.

 

[blackhawk]

Real clear politics average has Clinton plus 2.2 before the conventions her lead was I believe 2.7 or 2.9. It will be interesting to see some polling after her interview with Chris Wallace yesterday where she claimed FBI director Comey didn't say what he said and basically accused the Benghazi family members of not knowing what their talking about.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Are all the poll threads going to be buried in the Election Forum now?

 

[saveliberty]

The poll would be more helpful if it tracked the original group through both conventions.

This poll had Trump ahead by 1 last week. It had them tied before the conventions.

Doesn't look like they called the same people back NYC.

Is this a new goalpost position? It's hilarious.

No, I just think it would be more helpful to see the same group's reaction all the way through the conventions. A better judge of what made the biggest difference during that time.

 

[jon_berzerk]

Yo Perez why don't you ever cherry pick one of the polls showing Trump leading? You daffy loon

Because most polls have Clinton leading.

For every poll there is another poll....every day you cherry pick one showing Clinton leading, you're a shill....nothing more and nothing less. Your problem is you don't think we recognize it

actually a dupe

such polls reinforce his acceptance of the fact that he is a sheep

 

[Dekster]

If the CBS poll is biased, why did it have Trump ahead just a week ago?

You would have to post the data from the polls or a link to it. The current poll seems to have issues. The prior polls may have the same or a different set of issues. When 1/6th of your respondents aren't even registered to vote this close to the election, it is problematic.

 

[NYcarbineer]

If the CBS poll is biased, why did it have Trump ahead just a week ago?

You would have to post the data from the polls or a link to it. The current poll seems to have issues. The prior polls may have the same or a different set of issues. When 1/6th of your respondents aren't even registered to vote this close to the election, it is problematic.

Where did you come up with that?

 

[Dekster]

If the CBS poll is biased, why did it have Trump ahead just a week ago?

You would have to post the data from the polls or a link to it. The current poll seems to have issues. The prior polls may have the same or a different set of issues. When 1/6th of your respondents aren't even registered to vote this close to the election, it is problematic.

Where did you come up with that?

"1,393 adults nationwide, including 1,131 registered voters" means 252 of the people are not registered to vote-18.09% of the poll sample

 

[AceRothstein]

If the CBS poll is biased, why did it have Trump ahead just a week ago?

You would have to post the data from the polls or a link to it. The current poll seems to have issues. The prior polls may have the same or a different set of issues. When 1/6th of your respondents aren't even registered to vote this close to the election, it is problematic.

Where did you come up with that?

"1,393 adults nationwide, including 1,131 registered voters" means 252 of the people are not registered to vote-18.09% of the poll sample

Do you see the crosstabs? At the top of each page it says *** REGISTERED VOTERS ***. They likely dropped the unregistered voters from their questioning.

 

[Dekster]

If the CBS poll is biased, why did it have Trump ahead just a week ago?

You would have to post the data from the polls or a link to it. The current poll seems to have issues. The prior polls may have the same or a different set of issues. When 1/6th of your respondents aren't even registered to vote this close to the election, it is problematic.

Where did you come up with that?

"1,393 adults nationwide, including 1,131 registered voters" means 252 of the people are not registered to vote-18.09% of the poll sample

Do you see the crosstabs? At the top of each page it says *** REGISTERED VOTERS ***. They likely dropped the unregistered voters from their questioning.

"Likely dropped" is a theory. On some question that do the "Registered Voters" thing and some they do not. By giving percentages and not the raw #'s it is difficult to tell what was done on those questions. It is interesting that Trump's mind made up voters went up 1 with GOP since the convention and Hillary's went down 2 among democrats, but again, who really knows because we don't know if those people are even registered to vote or not.

 

[NYcarbineer]

If the CBS poll is biased, why did it have Trump ahead just a week ago?

You would have to post the data from the polls or a link to it. The current poll seems to have issues. The prior polls may have the same or a different set of issues. When 1/6th of your respondents aren't even registered to vote this close to the election, it is problematic.

Where did you come up with that?

"1,393 adults nationwide, including 1,131 registered voters" means 252 of the people are not registered to vote-18.09% of the poll sample

And they didn't include the unregistered in the registered survey which is the one being cited.

 

[AceRothstein]

If the CBS poll is biased, why did it have Trump ahead just a week ago?

You would have to post the data from the polls or a link to it. The current poll seems to have issues. The prior polls may have the same or a different set of issues. When 1/6th of your respondents aren't even registered to vote this close to the election, it is problematic.

Where did you come up with that?

"1,393 adults nationwide, including 1,131 registered voters" means 252 of the people are not registered to vote-18.09% of the poll sample

Do you see the crosstabs? At the top of each page it says *** REGISTERED VOTERS ***. They likely dropped the unregistered voters from their questioning.

"Likely dropped" is a theory. On some question that do the "Registered Voters" thing and some they do not. By giving percentages and not the raw #'s it is difficult to tell what was done on those questions. It is interesting that Trump's mind made up voters went up 1 with GOP since the convention and Hillary's went down 2 among democrats, but again, who really knows because we don't know if those people are even registered to vote or not.

They do the registered voters thing at the top of each page with the rest of the headers for that page.

This poll is basically one of many polls telling us the same thing right now.