Christmas day is supposed to be 68 degrees

[Old Rocks]

Silly Billy, it is winter. It is and has been abnormally warm. But the El Nino will last at least the first 5 or 6 months of 2016, that will make it another very warm year. Three in a row.

 

[Crick]

The morons are out in force proclaiming that just becasue its warm (coincidentally in the same places it was 2 deg C cooler last year) that it is man made and caused.

When it was cooling it was weather, now that it is warming it is proof of AGW..

Fucking moronic fools like Crick are why most of the US is getting hit with 16-20% increases in power bills this year.

The El Nino warming is leaving fast. The Northern hemisphere has cooled by 1 deg C this week alone (blue line) and the globe (black line) has cooled by 0.5 deg C. Even the southern hemisphere has cooled by 0.2 deg C.

One region remaining a bit warmer is not proof of anything AGW.. (funny this is the cold area you told us didn't mean squat last year and didn't mean the globe was cooling but today it is proof of AGW).

Look out! Billy Boy has discovered we have SEASONS and THEY REPEAT ! ! !

 

[Crick]

The cold weather last year and the year before was caused by Rossby waves. Rossby waves are caused by a reduction in the temperature difference between the equator and the poles. That difference was been reduced by global warming. There was certainly no reduction in global temperatures coincident with the US cold spells.

As to the value of Billy Boy's el Nino predictions:

At this rate of decline the El Nino wont be present in just a few short weeks.

13 September 2015
Thread: Tracking the El Nino
Post #584

I am laughing at your inability to use any critical thinking skills...

Were you under the impression that a personal attack in the form of an unsubstantiated assertion would refute what I said? Rossby waves were responsible for the cold snaps in the midwest in 2013 & 14 and were caused by global warming and you predicted the current el Nino would no longer be present by the first half of October.

Your anti-science attitude is incapable of looking at things from a skeptical view point and asking relevant questions.

Guess what Billy Boy? Accusing every one of the worlds climate scientists of lying and conspiracy is an ANTI-SCIENCE attitude. Guess what Billy Boy? Accepting any and all hare-brained scheme that opposes AGW solely BECAUSE they oppose AGW is NOT BEING SKEPTICAL. You're intellectual discernment on this topic is absolutely nil.

Like now, you revert to character assassination in the hope you can somehow marginalize me.

I hate to have to tell you this Billy Boy, but you marginalized yoursefl (and worse) when you chose to lie to us about having a physics degree. I didn't make you do that. I didn't make you put out a dozen completely unsupportable predictions about this years el Nino. I didn't force you to get albedo reversed. I didn't force you to blather utter nonsense about microwaves, IR and harmonics. Grow up and face it, every iota of the marginalization you've suffered here has been at the hands of one Billy_Bob, Fool-at-Large

And yet the empirical evidence shows I was correct and much of what you posted was an outright fabrication and lie.

I haven't seen any data, empirical or otherwise from you in quite some time. You're rather well known for your failures to provide links or supporting data for your assertions. Precisely what did you post and what of mine do you believe to have been a fabrication?

The northern hemisphere temp is rapidly dropping as is the global temp

What is it about "IT IS WINTER" that you find so difficult to understand? And if you want to bring up the hemispheres, explain to us, oh physio-meteorologist, the significance of the differing amounts of land mass in the northern and southern hemispheres on this question.

showing that El Niño effect has dwindled and is no where near what you claimed it would be.

I never claimed it would be anything. I simply noted that you and the actual ENSO experts were in stark disagreement and, every time we checked, they were spot on and you were lost out in the woods somewhere. That is still the case. For instance:
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Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 December 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: El Niño is expected to remain strong through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during late spring or early summer 2016.

A strong El Niño continued during November as indicated by well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niño-4, Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 indices rose to their highest levels so far during this event, while the Niño-1+2 index remained approximately steady (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, while still well above average, decreased slightly(Fig. 3) due to the eastward push of the upwelling phase of an equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over the most of the tropical Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative. These conditions are associated with enhanced convection over the central tropical Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia(Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño episode that has matured.

Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, followed by weakening and a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer
****************************************************************************************

I suppose, if you simply continue to predict the imminent end of this el Nino, someday you will be right. They don't last forever. I simply hope you're not stupid enough to think no one will remember the dozens of premature death notices you spewed with such persistent conviction ever since the middle of 2015. You and el Nino predictions are a running joke on this board, dude. If you weren't aware of that, you ought to pay more attention.

The blue line is the northern hemisphere. The black line is global. You want to show me again where its warming and where the actual El Nino signal is?

I was curious about the ENSO predictions of the people who produced your graphic. As usual, you failed to provide a link. But I put the following into Google: WeatherBELL, Ryan Maue, NCEP CFSR / CFSv2 Global 2-meter Temperature Anomaly
but did NOT find your graph. So I did a direct image search. This time I found several links but they all linked back to a German Wordpress (ie, self-publlished) site called
***********************************************************************************
WOBLEIBTDIEGLOBALEERWAERMUNG ("Where is the Global Warming"). Perhaps not where I would have looked for the best ENSO data but... Their comments went along the lines as

After a year-peak of global temperature variations in early December 2015, the global average temperature in mid-December have fallen sharply within a week.

The temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere even went to 1 ° C back:

With a deviation of the updated global temperatures of 0.27 K is 2015 December 19, ranked No. 6 and will stay there.

It is therefore clear: 2015 is no global record warm year!

Cause both the unusually high deviations especially in November and December 2015 as well as the current global temperature drop is the strong - but by no means a record - El Niño event, which has very likely in 2015 reached its peak in November / December, as the also strong is expected decline in global tropical temperature variations:

And so it goes with the global temperatures ...: ENSO models: La Niña occurs in the second half 2016

..., Which raises the question: If, after 2014 and 2015 also in 2016 no global record warm year? Are World Climate Conferences completely pointless?

How are currently in Germany and Europe with the so far very mild weather continue? Because something is happening in the model forecasts for the calendrical beginning of winter on 22.12.2015, but not until after Christmas ...: ECMWF: polar vortex with dipole - the end of the mild weather in sight?
************************************************************
That's impressive.

Translations from Google.