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I'm not so sure about your Arizona call. It doesn't surprise me that Arizona is trending the other way. John McCain is still a very popular Senator here in Arizons, and Trump has pissed off a lot the right in Arisona - first, with his POW comments about him back in February, and now a second time by making a point of insisting that he isn't going to endorse his re-election. That's gonna hurt Trump in Arizona.North Carolina moves back to red. No surprise there.
Clinton: 273
Trump: 218
Tied: 47
Essentially it's going to come down to Ohio and Florida, whoever wins Ohio AND Florida wins the election.
Hillary will win Virginia and possibly North Carolina and also Nevada.
The Donald will win Arizona, I don't know why Mississippi and Georgia are leaning, I think he'll win both Mississippi and Georgia.
I'd love to move Georgia to the "Blue" column, but this isn't about what I'd like to see, but rather where we are. And Georgia just isn't there, yet.Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.
July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:
We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>
Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29
Florida remains a consistent dead heat.
I know!Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.
July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:
We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>
Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29
Florida remains a consistent dead heat.
I've been reading about all American elections since 1980, and I can't understand how you think Hillary win's Georgia, the last Democrat to win Georgia was Bill, but Georgia has become more Conservative since.
New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton
In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.
Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.
I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.
The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.
Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.
My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.
I'm not so sure about your Arizona call. It doesn't surprise me that Arizona is trending the other way. John McCain is still a very popular Senator here in Arizons, and Trump has pissed off a lot the right in Arisona - first, with his POW comments about him back in February, and now a second time by making a point of insisting that he isn't going to endorse his re-election. That's gonna hurt Trump in Arizona.North Carolina moves back to red. No surprise there.
Clinton: 273
Trump: 218
Tied: 47
Essentially it's going to come down to Ohio and Florida, whoever wins Ohio AND Florida wins the election.
Hillary will win Virginia and possibly North Carolina and also Nevada.
The Donald will win Arizona, I don't know why Mississippi and Georgia are leaning, I think he'll win both Mississippi and Georgia.
I am going to voice my hunch that there will be an October surprise that will give Trump the White House in a landslide. It will either be something about Hillary that will not allow justice to turn her head - or, more likely, she will have a very severe medical problem. Bill's on his last legs too.
You're thinking is so 2000. Georgia is going to turn blue. Texas might go blue. PA, FL, hell probably even Ohio is going to go blue this year. Michigan will go blue.I know!Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.
July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:
We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>
Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29
Florida remains a consistent dead heat.
I've been reading about all American elections since 1980, and I can't understand how you think Hillary win's Georgia, the last Democrat to win Georgia was Bill, but Georgia has become more Conservative since.
New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton
In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.
Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.
I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.
The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.
Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.
My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.
You're thinking is so 2000. Georgia is going to turn blue. Texas might go blue. PA, FL, hell probably even Ohio is going to go blue this year. Michigan will go blue.I know!Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.
July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:
We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>
Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29
Florida remains a consistent dead heat.
I've been reading about all American elections since 1980, and I can't understand how you think Hillary win's Georgia, the last Democrat to win Georgia was Bill, but Georgia has become more Conservative since.
New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton
In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.
Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.
I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.
The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.
Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.
My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.
They've been going after the Clinton's for 40 years. What you know now is what you know. No email will doom her. But you are the typical Republican who's hoping for a surprise. Because you know the reality now doesn't look good for you at all. Should have run Kasich.I am going to voice my hunch that there will be an October surprise that will give Trump the White House in a landslide. It will either be something about Hillary that will not allow justice to turn her head - or, more likely, she will have a very severe medical problem. Bill's on his last legs too.
I agree, but Trump isn't your typical Republican. I'll be curious to see if that tepid, script-read endorsement of McCain will be enough to assuage Arizona voters, after his treatment of McCain.I'm not so sure about your Arizona call. It doesn't surprise me that Arizona is trending the other way. John McCain is still a very popular Senator here in Arizons, and Trump has pissed off a lot the right in Arisona - first, with his POW comments about him back in February, and now a second time by making a point of insisting that he isn't going to endorse his re-election. That's gonna hurt Trump in Arizona.North Carolina moves back to red. No surprise there.
Clinton: 273
Trump: 218
Tied: 47
Essentially it's going to come down to Ohio and Florida, whoever wins Ohio AND Florida wins the election.
Hillary will win Virginia and possibly North Carolina and also Nevada.
The Donald will win Arizona, I don't know why Mississippi and Georgia are leaning, I think he'll win both Mississippi and Georgia.
Okay, so we'll have to watch the polling in Arizona. This would be an unusual happening should Arizona vote Democratic, they've only voted Democratic once since 1948, that being in 1996 for Bill Clinton.
View attachment 84446
Arizona Presidential Election Voting History
Well...you can always hope...I am going to voice my hunch that there will be an October surprise that will give Trump the White House in a landslide. It will either be something about Hillary that will not allow justice to turn her head - or, more likely, she will have a very severe medical problem. Bill's on his last legs too.
You're thinking is so 2000. Georgia is going to turn blue. Texas might go blue. PA, FL, hell probably even Ohio is going to go blue this year. Michigan will go blue.I know!Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.
July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:
We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>
Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29
Florida remains a consistent dead heat.
I've been reading about all American elections since 1980, and I can't understand how you think Hillary win's Georgia, the last Democrat to win Georgia was Bill, but Georgia has become more Conservative since.
New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton
In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.
Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.
I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.
The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.
Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.
My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.
I agree, but Trump isn't your typical Republican. I'll be curious to see if that tepid, script-read endorsement of McCain will be enough to assuage Arizona voters, after his treatment of McCain.I'm not so sure about your Arizona call. It doesn't surprise me that Arizona is trending the other way. John McCain is still a very popular Senator here in Arizons, and Trump has pissed off a lot the right in Arisona - first, with his POW comments about him back in February, and now a second time by making a point of insisting that he isn't going to endorse his re-election. That's gonna hurt Trump in Arizona.North Carolina moves back to red. No surprise there.
Clinton: 273
Trump: 218
Tied: 47
Essentially it's going to come down to Ohio and Florida, whoever wins Ohio AND Florida wins the election.
Hillary will win Virginia and possibly North Carolina and also Nevada.
The Donald will win Arizona, I don't know why Mississippi and Georgia are leaning, I think he'll win both Mississippi and Georgia.
Okay, so we'll have to watch the polling in Arizona. This would be an unusual happening should Arizona vote Democratic, they've only voted Democratic once since 1948, that being in 1996 for Bill Clinton.
View attachment 84446
Arizona Presidential Election Voting History
Uh... I don't agree with his politics, but I think "weasel" might be a bit unfair...I agree, but Trump isn't your typical Republican. I'll be curious to see if that tepid, script-read endorsement of McCain will be enough to assuage Arizona voters, after his treatment of McCain.I'm not so sure about your Arizona call. It doesn't surprise me that Arizona is trending the other way. John McCain is still a very popular Senator here in Arizons, and Trump has pissed off a lot the right in Arisona - first, with his POW comments about him back in February, and now a second time by making a point of insisting that he isn't going to endorse his re-election. That's gonna hurt Trump in Arizona.North Carolina moves back to red. No surprise there.
Clinton: 273
Trump: 218
Tied: 47
Essentially it's going to come down to Ohio and Florida, whoever wins Ohio AND Florida wins the election.
Hillary will win Virginia and possibly North Carolina and also Nevada.
The Donald will win Arizona, I don't know why Mississippi and Georgia are leaning, I think he'll win both Mississippi and Georgia.
Okay, so we'll have to watch the polling in Arizona. This would be an unusual happening should Arizona vote Democratic, they've only voted Democratic once since 1948, that being in 1996 for Bill Clinton.
View attachment 84446
Arizona Presidential Election Voting History
It's incredible that such a weasel as John McCain is still popular.
Uh... I don't agree with his politics, but I think "weasel" might be a bit unfair...I agree, but Trump isn't your typical Republican. I'll be curious to see if that tepid, script-read endorsement of McCain will be enough to assuage Arizona voters, after his treatment of McCain.I'm not so sure about your Arizona call. It doesn't surprise me that Arizona is trending the other way. John McCain is still a very popular Senator here in Arizons, and Trump has pissed off a lot the right in Arisona - first, with his POW comments about him back in February, and now a second time by making a point of insisting that he isn't going to endorse his re-election. That's gonna hurt Trump in Arizona.Essentially it's going to come down to Ohio and Florida, whoever wins Ohio AND Florida wins the election.
Hillary will win Virginia and possibly North Carolina and also Nevada.
The Donald will win Arizona, I don't know why Mississippi and Georgia are leaning, I think he'll win both Mississippi and Georgia.
Okay, so we'll have to watch the polling in Arizona. This would be an unusual happening should Arizona vote Democratic, they've only voted Democratic once since 1948, that being in 1996 for Bill Clinton.
View attachment 84446
Arizona Presidential Election Voting History
It's incredible that such a weasel as John McCain is still popular.
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This is why I choose to track the electoral rather than the popular polls. You're right. It's all about the electoral college. This is a "national", but it is a national race divided into 50 electoral races. What really matters in a presidential race is which states a candidate wins.You're thinking is so 2000. Georgia is going to turn blue. Texas might go blue. PA, FL, hell probably even Ohio is going to go blue this year. Michigan will go blue.I know!Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.
I've been reading about all American elections since 1980, and I can't understand how you think Hillary win's Georgia, the last Democrat to win Georgia was Bill, but Georgia has become more Conservative since.
New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton
In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.
Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.
I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.
The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.
Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.
My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.
There's also the possibility that Hillary could win the EC vote and that The Donald win's the Popular Vote, people should remember, that despite what the incredibly biased MSM are commenting regarding The Donald and the Republican Party, that in sheer raw vote totals from the Primaries and Caucuses, The Donald received more votes than any other Republican candidate in history.
The Republican Party apparatus aren't a fan of his, and it's not too surprising that they're not, because not only isn't The Donald an ass-kissing career politician, he also has refused to tow the Republican Party line, which is essentially being a part of the Uni-Party ie. the Republicrats of Paul Ryan, John McCain, John Boehner, Mitt Romney etc. As such The Donald has them terrified and it's good that he does, because what's the point of having more than one political party when they've almost merged into the Republicrats?
So whilst The Republican Party aren't fans of The Donald, he's very popular with a substantial section of the American public.
I put no stock in most opinion polls, for instance, someone in another thread posted a recent opinion poll that had Hillary with I think a 4 point lead, when one read into the circumstances of that poll, the pollsters had over-polled Democrats by 12%, so that poll cannot be considered a valid poll, it was a deliberately weighted poll.
She has been having more then that latelyI am going to voice my hunch that there will be an October surprise that will give Trump the White House in a landslide. It will either be something about Hillary that will not allow justice to turn her head - or, more likely, she will have a very severe medical problem. Bill's on his last legs too.
Yes Bill looks terrible, he doesn't look well at all. Hillary has those strange coughing fits.
This is why I choose to track the electoral rather than the popular polls. You're right. It's all about the electoral college. This is a "national", but it is a national race divided into 50 electoral races. What really matters in a presidential race is which states a candidate wins.You're thinking is so 2000. Georgia is going to turn blue. Texas might go blue. PA, FL, hell probably even Ohio is going to go blue this year. Michigan will go blue.I know!I've been reading about all American elections since 1980, and I can't understand how you think Hillary win's Georgia, the last Democrat to win Georgia was Bill, but Georgia has become more Conservative since.
New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton
In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.
Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.
I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.
The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.
Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.
My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.
There's also the possibility that Hillary could win the EC vote and that The Donald win's the Popular Vote, people should remember, that despite what the incredibly biased MSM are commenting regarding The Donald and the Republican Party, that in sheer raw vote totals from the Primaries and Caucuses, The Donald received more votes than any other Republican candidate in history.
The Republican Party apparatus aren't a fan of his, and it's not too surprising that they're not, because not only isn't The Donald an ass-kissing career politician, he also has refused to tow the Republican Party line, which is essentially being a part of the Uni-Party ie. the Republicrats of Paul Ryan, John McCain, John Boehner, Mitt Romney etc. As such The Donald has them terrified and it's good that he does, because what's the point of having more than one political party when they've almost merged into the Republicrats?
So whilst The Republican Party aren't fans of The Donald, he's very popular with a substantial section of the American public.
I put no stock in most opinion polls, for instance, someone in another thread posted a recent opinion poll that had Hillary with I think a 4 point lead, when one read into the circumstances of that poll, the pollsters had over-polled Democrats by 12%, so that poll cannot be considered a valid poll, it was a deliberately weighted poll.