Czernobog
Gold Member
- Thread starter
- #61
I think that might be a bit extreme, as the electoral college is determined by the popular vote in each state, with the number of electoral votes determined by state population.This is why I choose to track the electoral rather than the popular polls. You're right. It's all about the electoral college. This is a "national", but it is a national race divided into 50 electoral races. What really matters in a presidential race is which states a candidate wins.You're thinking is so 2000. Georgia is going to turn blue. Texas might go blue. PA, FL, hell probably even Ohio is going to go blue this year. Michigan will go blue.I know!
New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton
In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.
Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.
I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.
The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.
Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.
My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.
There's also the possibility that Hillary could win the EC vote and that The Donald win's the Popular Vote, people should remember, that despite what the incredibly biased MSM are commenting regarding The Donald and the Republican Party, that in sheer raw vote totals from the Primaries and Caucuses, The Donald received more votes than any other Republican candidate in history.
The Republican Party apparatus aren't a fan of his, and it's not too surprising that they're not, because not only isn't The Donald an ass-kissing career politician, he also has refused to tow the Republican Party line, which is essentially being a part of the Uni-Party ie. the Republicrats of Paul Ryan, John McCain, John Boehner, Mitt Romney etc. As such The Donald has them terrified and it's good that he does, because what's the point of having more than one political party when they've almost merged into the Republicrats?
So whilst The Republican Party aren't fans of The Donald, he's very popular with a substantial section of the American public.
I put no stock in most opinion polls, for instance, someone in another thread posted a recent opinion poll that had Hillary with I think a 4 point lead, when one read into the circumstances of that poll, the pollsters had over-polled Democrats by 12%, so that poll cannot be considered a valid poll, it was a deliberately weighted poll.
Your electoral system is incomprehensible to non-Americans. Why do you have the Electoral College vote and the Popular Vote, when ONLY the Electoral College vote matters?
A candidate could win the Popular Vote 60% to 40%, but the candidate with the minimum votes of 40% would become President if they won the Electoral College vote.
So that candidate who became President, has been rejected by 60% of the population.
So, while a loss of national popular vote, while still winning the electoral vote is possible, I don't believe your 20% difference could ever be achieved. Usually, when a candidate wins by electoral, but loses by popular, that popular loss is within points of each other.
Sent from my 5054N using Tapatalk