gslack
Senior Member
- Mar 26, 2010
- 4,527
- 356
IanC was the originator of this thread, wondering how much warming can be expected given the GHG concentration that we have created in the atmosphere. Of course accuracy in that answer is subject to some real unknowns like what will the peak concentration be when we finally stop adding.
Hopefully what people have gathered up here in answer to his question is:
A. Systems earth is a body, in a deep vacuum, which must maintain energy balance between the incoming solar short wave radiation, which effective falls on an area equal to a diametrical cross section of the earth, 24 hours a day, and outgoing long wave radiation projecting out into space from the entire surface area of the top of the atmosphere. If incoming is greater than outgoing the system must warm until balance is restored.
B. Fossil fuels are the remains of life from millions of years ago (the Carboniferous Period) that were not allowed to decompose, but subject to great pressure and temperature from the evolving planet. The process of their creation removed trillions of tons of carbon dioxide from our atmosphere. The process of recovering the energy from them will put that CO2 back into our atmosphere.
C. As the concentration of atmospheric CO2 builds, it, like all greenhouse gasses, absorbs long wave radiation emitted from earth, and immediately re-radiates it in all directions, allowing half to continue going out, and half to return to earth. This process happens with every photon/GHG molecule collision.
D. The consequent reduction in outgoing longwave radiation unbalances systems earth's energy balance, leading to the recreation of the pre-Carboniferous Period climate to a large degree.
E. Of course the resolution of the energy exchange between all of the thermal systems that comprise our land, oceans, ice, atmosphere, water vapor, etc creates weather, is so complex as to be unpredictable except in the short term. All that can be predicted for sure, and observed and measured already, is that weather will change from what we're used to, and have built civilization around, during the transition period, as well as when stability has returned.
F. So sciences best narrow answer to IanC's question is a 1.1 degree increase for each doubling of effective GHG concentration. However, several positive feedbacks will increase that. For instance, the initial temperature rise will melt many cubic miles of arctic and Antarctic ice that has been created during millions of years of the former climate. And the thawing of permafrost that has sequestered as much CO2 as fossil fuels have, will add that to the fossil fuels load. Considering all of this the actual temperature increase in the final analysis will be 4 to 12 degrees C per GHG concentration doubling.
G. There are three major and nobody knows how many other impacts these changes will cause for life on earth. 1) Rising sea levels into our cities which have been largely built as deep water ports. 2) A redistribution of rainfall that will cause dessertifacation of agricultural land and aquifers. And flooding. And change the availability of water for much of the world's population. 3) Probably an increase in extreme, violent weather.
H. Most experts believe that we have consumed about half of the fossil fuel reserve that we were given. The cheapest, highest quality half. Also the rate of consumption increases every year due to increased population and enhanced quality of life. During our consumption of the second half of our fossil fuel reserve we must engineer and build a complete sustainable replacement energy infrastructure. And, of course, if that can be done before we use all of the fuels we can reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by leaving it sequestered in the ground.
I. Much work is underway to address this entire situation. The only question is, are we progressing at the optimum rate? Optimum considering the economics and impact on life.
So, alcohol or cannabis? You level of coherence is plummeting....
Nah hes a meth head... hence his multiple personality disorder and endless stream of BS..A true tweaker..