SSDD
Gold Member
- Nov 6, 2012
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In your case, the infection zones for illnesses like, say, Cholera are moving northwards through Central America. It makes sense that areas like Florida, California and New Mexico are most at risk.
OK, finally an actual claim. So let's examine it to see how real it actually is. What are the vectors by which cholera spreads? The CDC says that cholera is a danger primarily in places where the water source is contaminated with feces from a person already infected with cholera or places with inadequate water treatment or poor sanitation and inadequate hygene. You may think that the southeast US is a backwater, but we do have water treatment and to the best of my knowledge, feces contaminated water, inadequate water treatment, and poor sanitation are not an issue anywhere within the US.
So that is how the CDC says that cholera becomes a problem in any given area. Clearly, no matter how warm it gets here, especially with a 2 degree increase in the global mean, it will not be an issue. For example, the average mean in Florida is more than 15 degrees higher than it is in my state and Florida does not have a cholera problem.
Then we must necessarily look at the history of cholrera to see if temperature really is the issue here. A quick look at the history of cholera in the US highlights the great cholera outbreak in New York in 1832. The history says that New York was probably hit harder than any other state in the US with cholera. Now the average mean temperature in my state is 55.1 and the average mean temperature in New York is 45.4. New York is 9.7 degrees F colder than my state and yet, it has been the hardest hit by cholera including Florida which has an average mean temperature of 25.3 degrees higher than that of New York.
Further examination of the history of Cholera tells me that it was a chronic problem throughout Europe, even in the northern Climes as well as Russia where 100,000 people died between 1829 and 1951, in Germany where 150,000 people died in 1831, in England, where 55,000 people died in 1832, and even the north pacific coast of the US in 1834. Even Finland was hit multiple times with cholera epidemics during the 19th century. Are you going to tell me that the average mean temperature in Finland is higher than anywhere in the southeast US?
I could go on, but clearly, temperature is not the threat with cholera as it can reach epidemic proportions in a place as cold as Moscow.
Under moderatly close examination, your threat of cholera turns out to be no threat at all unless you are claiming that a 2 degree temperature increase will cause water treatment plants to shut down and people to disregard sanitation and hygene.
This might help you understand the point here:
The density and habitats of Aedes aegypti have expanded both in urban and rural areas. This mosquito is once again infesting regions from which it was previously eradicated.
You can bet that if white people start dying from malaria again as opposed to the brown people in the 3rd world, the ban on DDT will disappear post haste. And there are other means of controlling insects. That threat also doesn't stand up under even moderat examination.
I'm constantly amazed that you are unable to figure these things out for yourself.
I am amazed that such blatantly fraudulent threats could impress you enough so that you would repeat them in public. Cleary you have not actually looked at the history of cholera or malaria otherwise you would know that temperature is not the threat and both can be easily contained via practice.
As for the extent of the temperature rise needed, I doubt even experts can say precisely.
Of course not. "Experts" seem to know all till actually put to the question and then everything becomes vague and ethereal. Clearly 2 degrees would not produce any such issues and at this point, only the real crazies are predicting more than 2 degrees as a result of their fraudulent AGW hypothesis.
Breeding conditions for insects depend a lot on humidity and local conditions, obviously. Mosquitos are difficult little bastards to control.
No they aren't. We did it handily in the 1940's when there was much more rural swampland than there is now. Again, your threat doesn't hold water.
If you had read the article I linked yesterday, it did explain this quite clearly. You poo-poohed it, of course, as you usually do.
I read the article then looked at the video that was provided showing THE preiminent insect disease vector expert in the entire world saying that temperature was not a threat insofar as insect spread disease goes.
I don't see this as a national crisis and I don't think there is any reason to panic, but when you claim US farmers have nothing to fear from climate change, then clearly you have not thought things like this through at all. How much would a single Yellow Fever outbreak in an urban area cost?
So far, you have not named anything that even requires mild concern. The problems you name might have been problems 150 years ago and still are in the third world where they are living as we did 150 years ago due to environmentalist denying them access to electricity and all the benefits that come with it...but they are not issues in the industrial nations today.
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