If a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth,we started the Biden recession yesterday, -1.4% in Q1 and -2.1% in Q2.

[basquebromance]

 

[basquebromance]

the economy has gotten so bad ANTIFA can't afford bricks and AOC can't afford fake handcuffs

yeah, recession!

 

[MinTrut]

You lefties can IGNORE economic laws, but they are still there.

You could ignore the law of gravity and jump off your roof….

The left despises Biden, and is aware of economic laws.

You're referring to liberals, not the left.

 

[Mac1958]

The White House is not redefining it. That definition has been around for many years. Here's an article on NBER.org from 1997 about it...

A little food for thought: Obviously these folks are going to paint the worst possible picture of the economy. That's today's politics. Meh.

What they don't understand -- and how could they, given their lack of knowledge on the topic -- is that (a) the underlying numbers aren't nearly as bad as the macro GDP numbers, and that (b) if the recession is relatively mild (about a 60% chance of that) and the Fed gets on top of inflation (they will soon), these folks aren't going to like what happens next. Both consumers and banks are not in bad shape at all, particularly when inflation eases.

So I'm fine calling it a recession, if that's what the numbers show. Whatever. Then we'll have a nice recovery and they'll be stuck having to defend Trump, MTG, Gaetz, and the rest of the clowns.

 

[Nostra]

LOL

Yeah, meant 2009, not 2006, as shown in the link I posted.

Doesn't help you since I provided two instances where we were in a recession without 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

You know, the thing you insisted did not happen.

You suck at numbers.

 

[Nostra]

The White House is not redefining it. That definition has been around for many years. Here's an article on NBER.org from 1997 about it...

Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

Business Cycle Expansion and contraction dates for the United States Economy

web.archive.org

Quick question: Are we in a recession now that we have 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP?

 

[Sandisk]

A little food for thought: Obviously these folks are going to paint the worst possible picture of the economy. That's today's politics. Meh.

What they don't understand -- and how could they, given their lack of knowledge on the topic -- is that (a) the underlying numbers aren't nearly as bad as the macro GDP numbers, and that (b) if the recession is relatively mild (about a 60% chance of that) and the Fed gets on top of inflation (they will soon), these folks aren't going to like what happens next. Both consumers and banks are not in bad shape at all, particularly when inflation eases.

So I'm fine calling it a recession, if that's what the numbers show. Whatever. Then we'll have a nice recovery and they'll be stuck having to defend Trump, MTG, Gaetz, and the rest of the clowns.

I agree with the first paragraph - but not the rest.

We haven't had a GDP growth FY over 3% since 2005!?!

How Every President Since Hoover Has Affected the U.S. Economy

Presidents influence economic growth through taxes, spending, and more. Here's how gross domestic product (GDP) grew or contracted during each president's term.

www.thebalance.com

And that is despite the longest bull market in history and (apparently) low unemployment.
Plus the Fed and the government spending like mad.

The economy is a mess.
It has been propped up by cheap money since 2007.
The equity markets have been ENTIRELY 'coked up' on ZIRP, QE and stock buybacks.
The U-3 is a joke/'hoax' (even that man child Trump - rightly - said so during his 2016 campaign).

Donald Trump Calls Unemployment Rate One of the “Biggest Hoaxes in Politics”

During a speech on the economy

finance.yahoo.com

And inflation was low because everyone was devaluing their currencies at roughly the same rate as we have.

But the wealth gap is growing FAST.
The middle class is shrinking.

Wealth Inequality in America over Time: Key Statistics

Groups that historically have had low wealth (Black, Hispanic and high school graduate families) saw gains in median wealth. But wealth remains low, making it difficult for them to have financial stability.

www.stlouisfed.org

The FAR better employment indicator than the erroneous U-3 is the employment-population ratio.
And it shows that employment is STILL, not even close to recovered from the Great Recession.

Employment–population ratio

www.bls.gov

The country is living on cheap money...NOT solid fundamentals.
And it can ONLY work so long as interest rates are MEGA low.

You cannot keep 'printing' your way to prosperity forever.
Something - eventually - HAS to give.
Especially when the middle/lower classes wake the fuck up and realize that they are being left behind.
And the wealthy are making out like bandits.

And when this happens?
The Fed will HAVE to raise rates for a long period.
And then - a torrential mess of unpaid debt will flood the economies of the world.

The question is?
What will the big boys do then?
Will they take responsibility and ride the MESS out?
Or will they try to distract the masses from their MASSIVE, fuck up?
Maybe with a major war?

Take a guess which they will choose?

With respect...I believe America's economy is a HUGE, house of cards that must, eventually collapse.
And both sides are equally to blame for it.

 

[Independent thinker]

How will the media and Dems try to spin this?

Poot?

They will change the definition of a recession. I already saw someone in Biden's administration do this a couple of weeks ago. He said something like, "Well the traditional definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth but there are other factors that I think will show that we will not actually be in a recession, even if we do have two quarters of negative growth". While economists will say that we are in a recession Biden & Co will be telling how good we actually have it.

 

[tshrimp]

My favorite thread EVER! Reading the excuses, and redefining recession has been glorious to witness.

 

[Mac1958]

I agree with the first paragraph - but not the rest.

We haven't had a GDP growth FY over 3% since 2005!?!

How Every President Since Hoover Has Affected the U.S. Economy

Presidents influence economic growth through taxes, spending, and more. Here's how gross domestic product (GDP) grew or contracted during each president's term.

www.thebalance.com

And that is despite the longest bull market in history and (apparently) low unemployment.
Plus the Fed and the government spending like mad.

The economy is a mess.
It has been propped up by cheap money since 2007.
The equity markets have been ENTIRELY 'coked up' on ZIRP, QE and stock buybacks.
The U-3 is a joke/'hoax' (even the man child Trump - rightly - said so during his campaign).
And inflation was low because everyone was devaluing their currencies at roughly the same rate as we have.

But the wealth gap is growing FAST.
The middle class is shrinking.
The FAR better employment indicator than the erroneous U-3 is the employment-population ratio.
And it shows that employment is STILL, not even close to recovered from the Great Recession.

Employment–population ratio

www.bls.gov

The country is living on cheap money...NOT solid fundamentals.
And it can ONLY work so long as interest rates are MEGA low.

You cannot keep 'printing' your way to prosperity forever.
Something - eventually - HAS to give.
Especially when the middle/lower classes wake the fuck up and realize that they are being left behind.
And the wealthy are making out like bandits.

And when this happens?
The Fed will HAVE to raise rates for a long period.
And then - a torrential mess of unpaid debt will flood the economies of the world.

The question is?
What will the big boys do then?
Will they take responsibility and ride the MESS out?
Or will they try to distract the masses from their MASSIVE fuck up?
Maybe with a major war?

Take a guess which they will choose?

With respect...I believe America's economy is a HUGE, house of cards that must, eventually collapse.
And both sides are equally to blame for it.

I don't think we disagree all that much. I have to analyze and act on this shit for a living, so I'll try to keep this brief and hopefully with some sense to it.

I've been calling the post-Meltdown economy "Capitalism 2.0", because the Federal Reserve is now essentially every bit as important to the economy as the consumer. The Fed's balance sheet is now at about $9 trillion, with another $2 trillion poured in by the NY Fed in 2019 to unfreeze credit markets.

So this fucking FLOOD of stimulative dollars has been growing and pretty much EVERYONE has been wondering why we haven't had massive inflation yet. EVERYONE. We've been wondering since 2009. My theory is that there was a great deal of slack in the system, where lower and middle earners still didn't have enough cash to push inflation. But holy shit, we have been fucking AWASH in cash, but we've still been able to avoid inflation (while the rich got mega-rich in the process). The money went to the top. Again.

So, with this historic level of stimulative cash stuffing our system, along comes COVID and the shutdowns. Not only did a ton of consumer dollars build up during that time, but global supply chains were busy decaying and were ready to collapse. So after we opened back up post-Covid, BOOM, demand fucking exploded and global supply chains fell to pieces. Basic economics: Higher demand, lower supply, inflation. Duh.

So yeah, you're right, those who could make changes in the system are incentivized not to. Why in the world SHOULD they? Our political system is set up such that big money equals massive power and influence. And are we going to learn? Doubtful.

 

[Faun]

You suck at numbers.

LOL

Slobbers the idiot who insisted a recession required at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth even though we had 2 which didn't. Even though the NBER has said we don't since at least 1997.

 

[Leviticus]

To be fair to both sides, both the right and left do what the OP is doing, trying to claim that a recession, which is a natural part of an economy, is always bad and blame it on the other side.

If Trump had won in 2020, liberals would be making threads like this and accusing Trump of tanking the economy.

 

[Faun]

Quick question: Are we in a recession now that we have 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP?

LOLOL

Dumbfuck, link to the BEA.gov stating we now have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth....

 

[ColonelAngus]

The left never do anything wrong...they just change the meaning of words to make it so.

Con: We are in a recession.
Cult: No we are not, the definition JUST changed. If Trump was President it would have changed to 1 Qtr.

 

[Nostra]

LOLOL

Dumbfuck, link to the BEA.gov stating we now have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth....

It's coming this week, Simp.

When it does will you say your Vegetable Messiah is a lying sack of shit or not?

 

[Faun]

It's coming this week, Simp.

When it does will you say your Vegetable Messiah is a lying sack of shit or not?

It very likely is -- but it's not here yet. As always, you prove to be brain-dead.

I take this to mean you can't yet link the BEA.gov stating 2nd quarter was negative.

 

[ColonelAngus]

It very likely is -- but it's not here yet. As always, you prove to be brain-dead.

I take this to mean you can't yet link the BEA.gov stating 2nd quarter was negative.

Good to know you are officially predicting that Q2 had positive GDP growth. We will see soon if your prediction is correct.

I am going out on a limb and will say you are WRONG.

 

[Faun]

Good to know you are officially predicting that Q2 had positive GDP growth. We will see soon if your prediction is correct.

I am going out on a limb and will say you are WRONG.

Faun: "It [GDP] very likely is [negative]"

Idiot: "Good to know you are officially predicting that Q2 had positive GDP growth."

Don't fall off your limb.

 

[Nostra]

It very likely is -- but it's not here yet. As always, you prove to be brain-dead.

I take this to mean you can't yet link the BEA.gov stating 2nd quarter was negative.

Another Fawnboi pathetic dodge.

Typical.

 

[Faun]

Another Fawnboi pathetic dodge.

Typical.

LOL

That's funny given you dodged my challenge for you to post a link to the BEA declaring 2nd quarter was negative. Your projection is noted and laughed at.