Jolly Wins! ObamaCare Loses!

[PoliticalChic]

Quite a victory.

A Republican seat for 40 years..stays Republican.

Pop the corks.

Agreed. This is a swing district that has elected a Republican since like the 70s. I don't think this really means anything one way or the other.

Thank you, David Axelrod

 

[RandomVariable]

Gotta question for you. How can you explain why that district in particular went for Obama in both elections? Would that make that a swing district? In this case, it swung toward the Republican candidate.

On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.

We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.

In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.

For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.

The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.

Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.

Hope that information helps.

Do your numbers include the Obamacare effect?....there is a reason Obama keeps postponing mandates

Do you think Obama is postponing the mandates for the American people or for his own popularity, or somewhere in between?

 

[bedowin62]

On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.

We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.

In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.

For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.

The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.

Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.

Hope that information helps.

Do your numbers include the Obamacare effect?....there is a reason Obama keeps postponing mandates

Do you think Obama is postponing the mandates for the American people or for his own popularity, or somewhere in between?

for his ego; to save his legacy; to save the dem Party from a slaughter this fall

 

[Statistikhengst]

Gotta question for you. How can you explain why that district in particular went for Obama in both elections? Would that make that a swing district? In this case, it swung toward the Republican candidate.

On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.

We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.

In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.

For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.

The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.

Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.

Hope that information helps.

Do your numbers include the Obamacare effect?....there is a reason Obama keeps postponing mandates

There's no way they can. They are numbers out of the past, that CD's track record, part of the congressional record. That's what electoral history means.

 

[The Rabbi]

It can't be for the people. We were told Obamacare would bend costs down and provide virtually free health care to all those who didnt have insurance.
So if it was going to do all that you'd want to hurry implementation, not delay it. So does Obama not care about people who dont have insurance? Because there are a heck of alot more of them today.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Jolly Republican Wins, Miserable Democrat Loses

 

[Truthmatters]

Quite a victory.

A Republican seat for 40 years..stays Republican.

Pop the corks.

Agreed. This is a swing district that has elected a Republican since like the 70s. I don't think this really means anything one way or the other.

Thank you, David Axelrod

hes correct you idiot

 

[RandomVariable]

Do your numbers include the Obamacare effect?....there is a reason Obama keeps postponing mandates

Do you think Obama is postponing the mandates for the American people or for his own popularity, or somewhere in between?

for his ego; to save his legacy; to save the dem Party from a slaughter this fall

I assume that you don't believe Obama does it because he believes it would be good from Americans. Correct me if I am wrong. Do you believe Republicans act purely for the good of Americans, solely for their own self-interests, or some of both?

 

[1751_Texan]

I'm not seeing how this race puts a dager in "Obamacare".

Almost all of the Rebuplican primary candates in Texas ran against "Obamacare"...even one's not on the nation scene.

So how does this election victory spell the end of "Obamacare"?

 

[PoliticalChic]

Agreed. This is a swing district that has elected a Republican since like the 70s. I don't think this really means anything one way or the other.

Thank you, David Axelrod

hes correct you idiot

Then why are you so worried?

 

[PoliticalChic]

On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.

We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.

In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.

For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.

The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.

Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.

Hope that information helps.

Do your numbers include the Obamacare effect?....there is a reason Obama keeps postponing mandates

Do you think Obama is postponing the mandates for the American people or for his own popularity, or somewhere in between?

Your answer is here....see if you're clever enough to recognize same:

According to the CBO, in 2015 there will be 36 million uninsured nonelderly Americans. http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43472-07-24-2012-CoverageEstimates.pdf (table 3)

 

[Statistikhengst]

Obama hung on and won the district both times, but as far as the congressional ballot goes, it's a heavily Republican district.

It's Katherine Harris' old district, which she won twice by 10 points.

The Republicans took it by 37 points in 2010.

In 2012, the Republicans took it by 15 points.

This evening they held on and took it by 2 points.

With Obama winning it twice and congressional Democrats edging closer and closer there, it's showing a nation-wide pattern that Republicans are getting old and dying while Democrats are expanding their base, despite the loss this evening.

Your analysis is false. It is not Katherine Harris's old district. The number is the same, but because of redistricting, the geography is different. Bill Young has represented this seat for 40 years. He won it by 15 points in 2012 because he was a long time incumbent. Now that it was an open seat and only a marginally Republican district (Cook PVI is R+1) a two point win is about what I would have expected to happen.

Yes, but the problem with the rating is that it is based on the average of the last three Presidential elections and not based on the average of the last three congressional elections. In terms of local politics, FL-13 is DECIDEDLY more than R+1. There was lots of disagreement when Cook first put out the index some 24 years ago, if memory recalls.

Montgomery County, OH (Dayton) is almost always a blue county in Ohio presidential, gubernatorial and senatorial politics. It was part of OH-03, is now, if I recall, OH-10. That CD (OH-03) elected a Republican Congressman for a number of decades. The the OH-03 was VERY VERY red in HOR politics, and purple in Senatorial and Gubernatorial politics and decidedly BLUE in presidential politics. The last Republican to win OH-03 was in 1988, as of 2016, 28 years ago. One political index doesn't do the trick for all three or four voting patterns. This is why understanding and ACCEPTING the electoral history of a geography (state, county, CD) is "half of the rent", so to speak.

 

[RandomVariable]

Do your numbers include the Obamacare effect?....there is a reason Obama keeps postponing mandates

Do you think Obama is postponing the mandates for the American people or for his own popularity, or somewhere in between?

Your answer is here....see if you're clever enough to recognize same:

According to the CBO, in 2015 there will be 36 million uninsured nonelderly Americans. http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43472-07-24-2012-CoverageEstimates.pdf (table 3)

Thirty-six million you say? That sure is a lot.

Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities | Shannon Spillane

 

[francoHFW]

Thanks for all the cherry picked propaganda, Pub dupe, but the CBO's predictions don't respect ANY savings or effects that haven't happened yet...and ALL your Pub info is bs propaganda...

The dems moved any mandates around elections because of the power of your greedy idiot lying billionaire heroes. They and you are a disgrace...

 

[PoliticalChic]

Thanks for all the cherry picked propaganda, Pub dupe, but the CBO's predictions don't respect ANY savings or effects that haven't happened yet...and ALL your Pub info is bs propaganda...

The dems moved any mandates around elections because of the power of your greedy idiot lying billionaire heroes. They and you are a disgrace...

Glad to see you could make it, Blanko!!!


Until you showed up there was a great death of senseless prattle!

 

[PoliticalChic]

Do you think Obama is postponing the mandates for the American people or for his own popularity, or somewhere in between?

Your answer is here....see if you're clever enough to recognize same:

According to the CBO, in 2015 there will be 36 million uninsured nonelderly Americans. http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43472-07-24-2012-CoverageEstimates.pdf (table 3)

Thirty-six million you say? That sure is a lot.

Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities | Shannon Spillane

So....where did you get that colorful graph....Bazooka Comics?


I must be some sort of bug-light for high school drop-outs!

OK, OK.....tutorial to follow:


1. The CBO tables that I've provided indicate 36 million uninsured nonelderly Americans who will remain uninsured after ObamaCare kicks in (this was before the supposed king postponed various parts of same).

Now....view that again....more carefully this time.

Note that it does not mention how many will be covered.

Is that too nuanced a difference for you to absorb?


2. Your silly little graph screams "...Will Cut Number of Uninsured Drastically."

Clearly it is the kind of pap designed to warm the cockles of the heart of Obamunist simpletons.

Nor does it speak to the point I've documented via the CBO stats.



3. Now, speaking of the source of your silly little graph....the CBPP is a Ford Foundation group, i.e., left wing....with an agenda.

a. For example:
"A chart created by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) has been circulating among liberal bloggers such as Ezra Klein, James Fallows, and Andrew Sullivan."
Liberal Think Tank Fails Statistics | The Foundry: Conservative Policy News from The Heritage Foundation



You may return to the All-Cartoon Network now.

And stop putting your thumb in your mouth.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Do you think Obama is postponing the mandates for the American people or for his own popularity, or somewhere in between?

Your answer is here....see if you're clever enough to recognize same:

According to the CBO, in 2015 there will be 36 million uninsured nonelderly Americans. http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43472-07-24-2012-CoverageEstimates.pdf (table 3)

Thirty-six million you say? That sure is a lot.

Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities | Shannon Spillane

BTW-

Let me offer this to you for purposes of indigestion:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/obamacare/344769-the-emergency-room-myth.html

 

[AvgGuyIA]

Attention Democrats! Pay no attention to this vote. I think one of you pointed out this is a solid GOP district anyway. Therefore I believe you should publicly embrace Obamacare and make it integral to your campaign message. Also, consider inviting obama to campaign for you in your District.

 

[kaz]

Oh yeah the Obamacare sign up numbers for February were below expectations as well.

I'm sure the White House will describe that as that sign ups have been consistent...

 

[Amelia]

Attention Democrats! Pay no attention to this vote. I think one of you pointed out this is a solid GOP district anyway. Therefore I believe you should publicly embrace Obamacare and make it integral to your campaign message. Also, consider inviting obama to campaign for you in your District.

Hear, hear. Bravo!