Jolly Wins! ObamaCare Loses!

[Edgetho]

You lie and it's my fault.
There was one Republican who got elected over and over. That speaks to his personal popularity, not the leanings of the district. If you want to know how the district leans, look at other races. And in all those other races they voted Democrat.
Geez you are one stupid arrogant piece of shit, aren't you?

'Stupid' is descriptive enough for any dimocrap.

Not only did Jolly win in a District that went for the Liar In Chief in 2012, Sink outspent Jolly 3 to 1 in TV advertising.

dimocraps put a LOT of money into this one and they lost.

What that tells us is more important than just one seat in Congress.

It tells prospective dimocrap contributors that they may be throwing their money away. That they have no chance of holding on to the Senate or Capturing the House and that they would be better advised to hang on to their money and use it in 2016.

THAT is what can be taken from this particular election.

And as usual, I'm right.

Sink was an experienced candidate who had won that district in a race previously, well funded, and well supported at the national level.
Jolly was a no name running with a libertarian on the ballot.
And he still beat her.

Yeah, watch as dimocrap donors start making excuses to not contribute or just simply disappear and dry up.

dimocraps are front-runners.

Barring some sea-change event, dimocraps lose 10-12 Seats in the Senate in November and Mitch McConnel won't know whether to shit or make a sandwich.

Let me be blunt....

Being in the minority is much easier than being in charge. You don't have to do anything, all you have to do is sit back and snipe at the majority.

Easy as shit.

One of the reasons Republicans lost favor under Bush was that they didn't know how to 'take charge'.

Some may claim (they will) that they didn't want to be perceived as ruthless and cut-throat as dimocrap scum are (and hoo-boy, they are) but the truth is --

They don't know how to lead. They don't know how to get out in front and kick some ass.

dimocraps do.

Talk about ruthless? I'm serious when I say Stalin and Mao would be proud of them.

Republicans just like to sit back and wring their hands like old women while dimocrap scum take the Country in the direction of Hell On Earth.

Think about it.

We need some new leadership. Some men and women with the balls to do what needs to be done.

Which is mostly to send dimocrap scum to Hell.

Our opponents are NOT the America-Friendly, Patriotic, well-meaning Democrats of the JFK era.....

They are literally the scum of the fucking Earth and the sooner we all realize that, the better off we're gonna be.

Trying to characterize them as anything else is just plain wrong-headed

 

[NYcarbineer]

This is Katherine Harris's old district. Remember her?

Whenever a Democrat retains a seat that was Democrat before that, conservatives love to say that's not really gaining anything,

so let's just all view this the conservative way and move on.

 

[bedowin62]

This is Katherine Harris's old district. Remember her?

Whenever a Democrat retains a seat that was Democrat before that, conservatives love to say that's not really gaining anything,

so let's just all view this the conservative way and move on.

ok; spin your loss any way you want to; that's your business

 

[auditor0007]

In an election which has national significance, first time campaigner, Republican David Jolly wins in Florida election!





1. "Republican David Jolly Wins Fla. Congressional Special Election in Test Race Over Health Care

2. Republican David Jolly wins Fla. congressional special election in test race over health care...."
Republican David Jolly Wins Fla. Congressional Special Election in Test Race Over Health Care - ABC News


3. "After almost $9 million in outside spending, a storm of attacks and counterattacks and endless speculation about its implications for the midterms, voters have cast their ballots in the Florida special congressional election on Tuesday.
The stakes are particularly high for Democrats..."
2014 Florida special election: David Jolly, Alex Sink - POLITICO.com

So a Republican won a seat by 2% that his Republican predecessors have carried by an average of 14% in past elections. It's interesting how "spin" works.

 

[Listening]

In an election which has national significance, first time campaigner, Republican David Jolly wins in Florida election!





1. "Republican David Jolly Wins Fla. Congressional Special Election in Test Race Over Health Care

2. Republican David Jolly wins Fla. congressional special election in test race over health care...."
Republican David Jolly Wins Fla. Congressional Special Election in Test Race Over Health Care - ABC News


3. "After almost $9 million in outside spending, a storm of attacks and counterattacks and endless speculation about its implications for the midterms, voters have cast their ballots in the Florida special congressional election on Tuesday.
The stakes are particularly high for Democrats..."
2014 Florida special election: David Jolly, Alex Sink - POLITICO.com

So a Republican won a seat by 2% that his Republican predecessors have carried by an average of 14% in past elections. It's interesting how "spin" works.

Why don't you read before you post.

This was addressed.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Anyone that PC agree's with is likely very bad for this country. No question about it.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Anyone that PC agree's with is likely very bad for this country. No question about it.

Hey, Matthew the Moron.....let me tell you how I feel.....



[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6Sxv-sUYtM]Pharrell Williams - Happy (Official Music Video) - YouTube[/ame]

 

[kidrocks]

Oh wow! The Republican won an election in a heavily tilted, historically Republican district with millions of dollars from outside Republican special interest groups... barely, and within the margin of error. Hmmmm.

Another posting parrot.
Hey, Obama won the district twice. The Democrat was a veteran and far better known.

No, this was an upset victory for the GOP. People dont want Obamacare. They will send the Dems packing in November.

The fact that Jolly could barely squeak out a win over Sink in a heavily tilted and historically Republican district shows that Obamacare did indeed keep the race very close. Jolly running against Obamacare should have produced a landslide victory for Jolly but it did not... not even close to that, in fact it was within the margin of error.

Jolly didn't even mention Obamacare in his victory speech, why? Because Obamacare is up and running well and will sink the Republicans in the coming election in Florida and nationwide that's why! Get ready!

 

[Little-Acorn]

David Jolly (R) . . . . 48.43%
Alex Sink (D) . . . . . 46.56%
Lucas Overby (L) . . . 4.83%

Or, to put it in a useful perspective:

Anti-Obamacare . . . 53.26%
Pro-Obamacare . . . .46.56%

The bell is starting to toll for the Obamanites.

Billary killed Hillarycare in 1993 when they published a book describing what it would contain.

The American people took one look and rejected it. They started calling their congressmen in droves and telling them DO NOT VOTE FOR THIS. And so the Democrats quickly found out they'd never get the votes for it, and never brought it to the floor. And when the next election rolled around, the American People kicked Democrats out of majorities in both the House and Senate, for practically the first time since the Great Depression.

Obama didn't make the mistake of telling the American people what he had in store for them. Instead, he had people like Pelosi announcing, "You have to pass it to find out what's in it." They had learned the lesson of Hillarycare well.

The trouble was, Obamacare contained a lot of the same stuff Hillarycare did... and the American people are just as much against it now as they were then.

So now that they are finding out what's in it, they are once again rejecting it... and voting out the people who supported it. That's why Obama is frantically delaying its implementation (i.e. delaying people finding out what's in it) until after the next election.

But it's too late. People have already found out enough of what's in it, to start voting out Democrats... as this FL Special Election shows.

It has started.

 

[The Rabbi]

Oh wow! The Republican won an election in a heavily tilted, historically Republican district with millions of dollars from outside Republican special interest groups... barely, and within the margin of error. Hmmmm.

Another posting parrot.
Hey, Obama won the district twice. The Democrat was a veteran and far better known.

No, this was an upset victory for the GOP. People dont want Obamacare. They will send the Dems packing in November.

The fact that Jolly could barely squeak out a win over Sink in a heavily tilted and historically Republican district shows that Obamacare did indeed keep the race very close. Jolly running against Obamacare should have produced a landslide victory for Jolly but it did not... not even close to that, in fact it was within the margin of error.

Jolly didn't even mention Obamacare in his victory speech, why? Because Obamacare is up and running well and will sink the Republicans in the coming election in Florida and nationwide that's why! Get ready!

Uh no. The fact that an underfunded no name beat a well known well financed challenger with outside connections indicates it was somewhat of a referendum on Obamacare and the Democrats.
But have it your way. Until November.

 

[asterism]

The last time a Democrat won the 13th district in Florida was 1973. I don't know the demographics but I'm guessing old, white and on Medicare.

Then why did that district pick her over Rick Scott for Governor?

 

[R.D.]

Oh wow! The Republican won an election in a heavily tilted, historically Republican district with millions of dollars from outside Republican special interest groups... barely, and within the margin of error. Hmmmm.

Dream on, Young leaned democrat and ran unopposed 7 times.

 

[asterism]

Wow, you guys got a problem! I just looked over the numbers, demographics, past election results, and such. Jolly won that by less than two percentage points? This is the Republican base if there is one, and you guys lost half of them? The last guy died, you get +5 points for that one alone. You know why you did so badly? Because old white people making a household income of ~$44k don't trust Republicans anymore. They are about the last group to get there but they're there now. You guys got serious problems.

How is this the Republican base?

The district went for Obama twice and Sink over Scott for Governor.

Jolly was a longtime incumbent who brought LOTS of pork projects home to the district.

 

[asterism]

Oh wow! The Republican won an election in a heavily tilted, historically Republican district with millions of dollars from outside Republican special interest groups... barely, and within the margin of error. Hmmmm.

Another posting parrot.
Hey, Obama won the district twice. The Democrat was a veteran and far better known.

No, this was an upset victory for the GOP. People dont want Obamacare. They will send the Dems packing in November.

The fact that Jolly could barely squeak out a win over Sink in a heavily tilted and historically Republican district shows that Obamacare did indeed keep the race very close. Jolly running against Obamacare should have produced a landslide victory for Jolly but it did not... not even close to that, in fact it was within the margin of error.

Jolly didn't even mention Obamacare in his victory speech, why? Because Obamacare is up and running well and will sink the Republicans in the coming election in Florida and nationwide that's why! Get ready!

What is heavily tilted in this district? Give us some numbers.

 

[kidrocks]

David Jolly (R) . . . . 48.43%
Alex Sink (D) . . . . . 46.56%
Lucas Overby (L) . . . 4.83%

Or, to put it in a useful perspective:

Anti-Obamacare . . . 53.26%
Pro-Obamacare . . . .46.56%

The bell is starting to toll for the Obamanites.

Billary killed Hillarycare in 1993 when they published a book describing what it would contain.

The American people took one look and rejected it. They started calling their congressmen in droves and telling them DO NOT VOTE FOR THIS. And so the Democrats quickly found out they'd never get the votes for it, and never brought it to the floor. And when the next election rolled around, the American People kicked Democrats out of majorities in both the House and Senate, for practically the first time since the Great Depression.

Obama didn't make the mistake of telling the American people what he had in store for them. Instead, he had people like Pelosi announcing, "You have to pass it to find out what's in it." They had learned the lesson of Hillarycare well.

The trouble was, Obamacare contained a lot of the same stuff Hillarycare did... and the American people are just as much against it now as they were then.

So now that they are finding out what's in it, they are once again rejecting it... and voting out the people who supported it. That's why Obama is frantically delaying its implementation (i.e. delaying people finding out what's in it) until after the next election.

But it's too late. People have already found out enough of what's in it, to start voting out Democrats... as this FL Special Election shows.

It has started.

And there you have that fuzzy-math the Republicans are so fond of. It's Florida you know.

 

[kidrocks]

Oh wow! The Republican won an election in a heavily tilted, historically Republican district with millions of dollars from outside Republican special interest groups... barely, and within the margin of error. Hmmmm.

Dream on, Young leaned democrat and ran unopposed 7 times.

Did he run as a Democrat those 7 times?

 

[Jroc]

But you will notice, I didn't. In fact, in January, I was already writing that it is advantage GOP in this election. The demographics of the district are simply more favorable to the GOP, especially at the state and local level.

Gotta question for you. How can you explain why that district in particular went for Obama in both elections? Would that make that a swing district? In this case, it swung toward the Republican candidate.

On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.

We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.

In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.

For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.

The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.

Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.

Hope that information helps.

Do your numbers include the Obamacare effect?....there is a reason Obama keeps postponing mandates

 

[R.D.]

Oh wow! The Republican won an election in a heavily tilted, historically Republican district with millions of dollars from outside Republican special interest groups... barely, and within the margin of error. Hmmmm.

Dream on, Young leaned democrat and ran unopposed 7 times.

Did he run as a Democrat those 7 times?

Silly question.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Obama hung on and won the district both times, but as far as the congressional ballot goes, it's a heavily Republican district.

It's Katherine Harris' old district, which she won twice by 10 points.

The Republicans took it by 37 points in 2010.

In 2012, the Republicans took it by 15 points.

This evening they held on and took it by 2 points.

With Obama winning it twice and congressional Democrats edging closer and closer there, it's showing a nation-wide pattern that Republicans are getting old and dying while Democrats are expanding their base, despite the loss this evening.

Your analysis is false. It is not Katherine Harris's old district. The number is the same, but because of redistricting, the geography is different. Bill Young has represented this seat for 40 years. He won it by 15 points in 2012 because he was a long time incumbent. Now that it was an open seat and only a marginally Republican district (Cook PVI is R+1) a two point win is about what I would have expected to happen.

 

[bedowin62]

Democrats outspent Jolly 4 to 1 and lost in that race. spin it anyway you want; it is a loss for Dems; and a bad sign for the Donkey