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On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.
We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.
In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.
For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.
The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.
Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.
Hope that information helps.
Do your numbers include the Obamacare effect?....there is a reason Obama keeps postponing mandates
Do you think Obama is postponing the mandates for the American people or for his own popularity, or somewhere in between?
Let me address the question, the idea that Obama functions out of a love for the American people.
Well....sort of.
Obama is a 'true believer' of Left-wing ideology.
He really believes that government is god...or he is....and no matter what happens to the people in the short run.....in the long run he is creating Utopia.
His love of his people is akin to the love leaders of the Soviet Union had for their people....including the tens of millions that they slaughtered.
"Horrors developed within that society [the USSR] , one of the greatest of which was the mass killing in the 30s of millions of its leading farmers.
Even during those horrors, the excitement of the theory continued to appeal to the pride, and in some ways the arrogance, of many in Western intellectual leadership who rationalized by saying that you cannot make an omelet without breaking eggs.
They forgot the eternal truth that man's nature is unchangeable and that good cannot come from evil."
https://www.hillsdale.edu/news/imprimis/archive/issue.asp?year=1978&month=09
And there were lots of folks who lapped that up.
Like you.