Jolly Wins! ObamaCare Loses!

[jon_berzerk]

the consensus by the lefties on the special election

a little replay of the cnn crying guy

--LOL

 

[FJO]

Too funny, how will these assholes spin this?

Oh I'm sure someone here will post that the republican cheated...
Anytime now...

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This is my first response on this thread, so I have not had a chance to see who the first liberal be who will blame Republicans for cheating.

Did you by any chance have francoFHW in mind?

 

[natstew]

Quite a victory.

A Republican seat for 40 years..stays Republican.

Pop the corks.

Might it surprise you to know that Obama won that district twice in both elections? Or are we forgetting that?

Obama won it by less than 1% in 2012 and by less than 3% in 2008. That means "swing" CD in terms of presidential elections, which has absolutely nothing to do with congressional elections, esp. special elections to fill a vacancy.

Only in a state like Nebrasksa or Maine, where the electors (excepting two of them) are divvied up according to CD winner, a pres comparison to the congressional race comparision is pretty silly and is apples to oranges, which I have already explained two or three times on this thread.

More like Obama won by voter suppression resulting from violation of Conservative's First Amendment Rights by silencing TEA Party and other Conservative groups with his IRS, aka KGB thuggery.

If you think shutting down over 600 Conservative groups while giving at least as many Liberal groups a free pass didn't effect the 2012 election, you're living in a dream world.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Quite a victory.

A Republican seat for 40 years..stays Republican.

Pop the corks.

Might it surprise you to know that Obama won that district twice in both elections? Or are we forgetting that?

Obama won it by less than 1% in 2012 and by less than 3% in 2008. That means "swing" CD in terms of presidential elections, which has absolutely nothing to do with congressional elections, esp. special elections to fill a vacancy.

Only in a state like Nebrasksa or Maine, where the electors (excepting two of them) are divvied up according to CD winner, a pres comparison to the congressional race comparision is pretty silly and is apples to oranges, which I have already explained two or three times on this thread.

I love how you're trying to downplay the importance of this election, Stat. You've become very dismissive of the results, continually trying to find that silver lining. There isn't one. The Democrat lost, in a district Obama himself won twice. It boils down to the fact that this district was leaning liberal in both of those elections, it swung conservative in a mid term year. It doesn't matter what level you're voting at, you have to measure voter tendency, not just raw numbers. Apple to apples, Stat.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Funny....Larry Sabato and other left leaning pundits picked the Democrat to win. A Democrat who outspent the Republican by a 3-1 margin. A Democrat who was well known in the State versus a nobody. But yeah...the election means nothing.

But you will notice, I didn't. In fact, in January, I was already writing that it is advantage GOP in this election. The demographics of the district are simply more favorable to the GOP, especially at the state and local level.

Gotta question for you. How can you explain why that district in particular went for Obama in both elections? Would that make that a swing district? In this case, it swung toward the Republican candidate.

On the presidential level, yes. But a completely different clientele tends to come out for mid-terms versus prez elections, and yet an even different clientele tends to come out for specials before primary season, which was the case last night. mid-terms and specials are generally called "base" elections. Well, in CD-13, the GOP base is considerably larger than the DEM base, and indies tend to vote a lot less in mid-terms and specials.

We have seen this phenomenon over and over again, and it explains why a president's party can get pummeled in the mid-terms (see: Eisenhower 1954, Reagan 1982, Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010) and yet, go on to be re-elected in the next prez election.

In 2011, the DEMS won the majority of the Wisconsin state senate recall elections (but not enought to retake the state Senate) and at that time, I warned my Democratic friends that Walker was likely to remain in office in the case of a statewide recall election against him. Why? Because a different clientele shows up for those little specials as opposed to a big statewide election.

For this reason, it makes no sense to compare presidential election results per CD (results which, btw, are gathered up by crowdsourcing) to congressional results. You can even see the difference within the same election. Almost never does the same amount of voters cast votes for a Representative in any given CD as they do for president, even in the same cycle.

The comparsion can be fun or entertaining, but it is of no statistical predictive value at all.

Which is why I stood by my mid-JANUARY prediction that the GOP was likely to retain this seat.

Hope that information helps.

 

[Freewill]

Too funny, how will these assholes spin this?

Oh I'm sure someone here will post that the republican cheated...
Anytime now...

5...
4...
3...
2...
1......

This is my first response on this thread, so I have not had a chance to see who the first liberal be who will blame Republicans for cheating.

Did you by any chance have francoFHW in mind?

Please not so loud, Truth(doesn't)Matters might wake up.

 

[natstew]

Libs are on hanging chad watch.

If this was Minnesota they'd have five recounts and a Democrat Poll worker would find a box of uncounted votes in the trunk of her car on the fifth, then the Governor would ban any further counting, giving Fran......er Sink the win.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Oh I'm sure someone here will post that the republican cheated...
Anytime now...

5...
4...
3...
2...
1......

This is my first response on this thread, so I have not had a chance to see who the first liberal be who will blame Republicans for cheating.

Did you by any chance have francoFHW in mind?

Please not so loud, Truth(doesn't)Matters might wake up.

I am quite sure the Republican did NOT cheat, he won fair and square in a free and open election in a CD that is decidely more favorable to Repbublicans on a local level. After 40 years of a GOP rep here, it was unlikely that any DEM was going to unseat the GOP here.

 

[Freewill]

The last time a Democrat won the 13th district in Florida was 1973. I don't know the demographics but I'm guessing old, white and on Medicare.

Man you hit the trifecta, race baiting, age discrimination and down right illogic. Jolly won because of Obamacare and the lying democrats. Obama won the same precinct last two elections where were the same people you are prejudice against during those elections?

 

[ShaklesOfBigGov]

Breaking news! Obama wasn't running this time... it was Mr. Jolly... and he barely won by cheating somehow I'll warrant.

Congratulations! I believe you are the first dumbass to suggest he cheated.

It was predicted it would happen, and you are the happy fool to fulfill the prophecy...


Excellent job!

Thank you! I wouldn't put it past the GOP to cheat somehow. It is Florida you know. Remember the 'hanging chads'? Well?

As I also remember networks like CNN calling the state of Florida for Gore while voting polls in the western half of Florida were still open, making voters believe the election in that state was already over. So what's your point?

 

[TemplarKormac]

A voter is a voter, if voting for president, or for a house representative; volume may be able to swing an election, but not in this case. Roughly 190,000 voters came to the polls. That's absolutely nuts for a district that size. If I may be so bold, I think you're being over-analytical, Stat.

 

[Freewill]

This is my first response on this thread, so I have not had a chance to see who the first liberal be who will blame Republicans for cheating.

Did you by any chance have francoFHW in mind?

Please not so loud, Truth(doesn't)Matters might wake up.

I am quite sure the Republican did NOT cheat, he won fair and square in a free and open election in a CD that is decidely more favorable to Repbublicans on a local level. After 40 years of a GOP rep here, it was unlikely that any DEM was going to unseat the GOP here.

Not saying you are but what you posted is exactly what I would expect from the loser licking their wounds. I thought for sure that the woman would win just for that reason. For Jolly to have won it has to be a referendum on Obamacare. Obama won there is no reason to think that a democrat couldn't win a seat held by the same man over all those years.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Might it surprise you to know that Obama won that district twice in both elections? Or are we forgetting that?

Obama won it by less than 1% in 2012 and by less than 3% in 2008. That means "swing" CD in terms of presidential elections, which has absolutely nothing to do with congressional elections, esp. special elections to fill a vacancy.

Only in a state like Nebrasksa or Maine, where the electors (excepting two of them) are divvied up according to CD winner, a pres comparison to the congressional race comparision is pretty silly and is apples to oranges, which I have already explained two or three times on this thread.

I love how you're trying to downplay the importance of this election, Stat. You've become very dismissive of the results, continually trying to find that silver lining. There isn't one. The Democrat lost, in a district Obama himself won twice. It boils down to the fact that this district was leaning liberal in both of those elections, it swung conservative in a mid term year. It doesn't matter what level you're voting at, you have to measure voter tendency, not just raw numbers. Apple to apples, Stat.

No, I haven't, not one single bit. You Righties are trying to make one single special election far more predictive than it should be. I have seen this kind of thing play out many times over the last 30 years. You continue to deliberately misunderstand that a CD usually peforms differently for a prez election as opposed to a local election because, as I just explained to you, a different clientele usually shows up for local elections, especially specials like this one. Were this CD so DEM leaning, then Young would not have won here with +15 in 2012, incumbent or not.

Math trumps propaganda every single time.

You are trying to attach an emotional value to what I am writing, when in reality, I am totally dispassionate when it comes to election results. They are what the are, and they go into the congressional record.

And just for the record, I predicted this race for the GOP in the elections section way back in January, when practically no one else was even paying attention:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...re-was-an-election-last-night-in-fl-13-a.html

On that thread, I went into great detail, and I quote:

It's really not that competitive of a district. Republicans have held the seat here since 1983. But while this district went for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, it went for President Obama by 1 point in 2012. It is one of the few CDs to actually swing toward the Democrats in 2012. That still doesn't say much, for there is no real direct correlation between presidential and congressional politics at the district level. Nonetheless, it is interesting information. Pinellas County is a very affluent county in FL....

...In the last 3 congressional elections in the district, between 267,000 and 368,000 voters have cast votes. That is a pretty amazing disparity. In 2012, 329,000 cast votes. It will be interesting to see what turnout is for a "place-holder" election.

No polling that I know of to date. But the electoral history of this District indicates:

Advantage GOP.

So, you were saying, again...

 

[FJO]

Sink sank.

 

[TemplarKormac]

And just roughly a month ago, local polling had SINK WINNING by 9 points roughly over Jolly. Just a month ago! Don't tell me this had anything to do with turnout. She clearly had the advantage, both with the voters and monetarily.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Florida 13th District Special - Jolly vs. Sink

 

[Freewill]

Oh wow! The Republican won an election in a heavily tilted, historically Republican district with millions of dollars from outside Republican special interest groups... barely, and within the margin of error. Hmmmm.

Another posting parrot.
Hey, Obama won the district twice. The Democrat was a veteran and far better known.

No, this was an upset victory for the GOP. People dont want Obamacare. They will send the Dems packing in November.

Breaking news! Obama wasn't running this time... it was Mr. Jolly... and he barely won by cheating somehow I'll warrant.

He cheated by running against an Obama democrat, that just doesn't seem fair.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Please not so loud, Truth(doesn't)Matters might wake up.

I am quite sure the Republican did NOT cheat, he won fair and square in a free and open election in a CD that is decidely more favorable to Repbublicans on a local level. After 40 years of a GOP rep here, it was unlikely that any DEM was going to unseat the GOP here.

Not saying you are but what you posted is exactly what I would expect from the loser licking their wounds. I thought for sure that the woman would win just for that reason. For Jolly to have won it has to be a referendum on Obamacare. Obama won there is no reason to think that a democrat couldn't win a seat held by the same man over all those years.

I didn't. I was already expecting a GOP win in January. Nice try, you really don't know me well enough to know whether I am in loser mode or winner mode.

I am actually in dispassionate mode.

 

[Statistikhengst]

And just 2 weeks ago, local polling had SINK WINNING by 9 points roughly over Jolly. Just two weeks ago! Don't tell me this had anything to do with turnout. She clearly had the advantage, both with the voters and monetarily.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Florida 13th District Special - Jolly vs. Sink

I have seen this so many times in local elections...

 

[FJO]

Too funny, how will these assholes spin this?

Oh I'm sure someone here will post that the republican cheated...
Anytime now...

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1......

And the winner is: kidrocks, post #62.

 

[Freewill]

I am quite sure the Republican did NOT cheat, he won fair and square in a free and open election in a CD that is decidely more favorable to Repbublicans on a local level. After 40 years of a GOP rep here, it was unlikely that any DEM was going to unseat the GOP here.

Not saying you are but what you posted is exactly what I would expect from the loser licking their wounds. I thought for sure that the woman would win just for that reason. For Jolly to have won it has to be a referendum on Obamacare. Obama won there is no reason to think that a democrat couldn't win a seat held by the same man over all those years.

I didn't. I was already expecting a GOP win in January. Nice try, you really don't know me well enough to know whether I am in loser mode or winner mode.

I am actually in dispassionate mode.

That's why I said not you.