Nostra
Diamond Member
- Oct 7, 2019
- 66,615
- 57,312
- 3,615
So, we are now down to 60K from over 2 million. Kinda reminds me of the MMGW Cult models always being wrong.
This leaves two possibilities:
1. The models have been bullshit scare tactics from Day 1.
or
2. Trump's actions have been outstanding in lowering the death rate astronomically.
Which is it?
Top coronavirus model significantly lowers total estimates of US deaths in new projection
A key coronavirus model has lowered its estimate of total U.S. deaths in its latest projection of how many will die due to the contagious virus.
The revision will likely fuel criticism from skeptics that initial projections were overblown, and one that government leaders may use to say that efforts to combat the spread are working.
The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) lowered its projection of total deaths from 68,841 (with an estimate range of 30,188 to 175,965) to just over 60,308 (with an estimate range of 34,063 to 140,381) in an update published Friday.
Former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson, who has become a top voice in those pushing back against the lockdown strategy, has argued that the models have social distancing baked in to them, so that cannot be tagged for the reason why the projections are being lowered.
“Now we’re in a bad spot because there’s clearly a dangerous political dynamic right now -- the economy is in freefall, a lot of people are hurting. If we acknowledge what is clearly happening ... the people who made these decisions, I think there’s going to be a lot of anger at them, so they don't want to acknowledge it, so they say 'oh it's the lockdown that saved us,'” former Berenson told Fox News last week.
Others have said that the model is simply not suited to policy-making at all
“That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME, said according to Stat News. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”
www.foxnews.com
This leaves two possibilities:
1. The models have been bullshit scare tactics from Day 1.
or
2. Trump's actions have been outstanding in lowering the death rate astronomically.
Which is it?
Top coronavirus model significantly lowers total estimates of US deaths in new projection
A key coronavirus model has lowered its estimate of total U.S. deaths in its latest projection of how many will die due to the contagious virus.
The revision will likely fuel criticism from skeptics that initial projections were overblown, and one that government leaders may use to say that efforts to combat the spread are working.
The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) lowered its projection of total deaths from 68,841 (with an estimate range of 30,188 to 175,965) to just over 60,308 (with an estimate range of 34,063 to 140,381) in an update published Friday.
Former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson, who has become a top voice in those pushing back against the lockdown strategy, has argued that the models have social distancing baked in to them, so that cannot be tagged for the reason why the projections are being lowered.
“Now we’re in a bad spot because there’s clearly a dangerous political dynamic right now -- the economy is in freefall, a lot of people are hurting. If we acknowledge what is clearly happening ... the people who made these decisions, I think there’s going to be a lot of anger at them, so they don't want to acknowledge it, so they say 'oh it's the lockdown that saved us,'” former Berenson told Fox News last week.
Others have said that the model is simply not suited to policy-making at all
“That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME, said according to Stat News. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”
Top coronavirus model significantly lowers total estimates of US deaths in new projection
A key coronavirus model has lowered its estimate of total U.S. deaths in its latest projection of how many will die due to the contagious virus -- a move likely to fuel criticism from skeptics that initial projections were overblown, and one that government leaders may use to say that efforts to...
www.foxnews.com
