Let the nation default?

[Vandalshandle]

J.C. Penny and Sears are both in such fragile condition already that a government default will be enough to send them over a cliff. Both are anchors at a large number of shopping malls. Shopping malls fail when they lose their anchors. If this goes into Novemeber, you can expect consumers to cut their shopping for Christmas.

But before all that happens, Wall Street goes into a meltdown...especially if foreign markets start to drop because of loss of confidence in Asia and Europe. If that happens, the dominos start to fall.

 

[KissMy]

yes, defaulting on treasuries, bonds, and interest is different than not paying a DOD or DOT contractor.

but not paying the bills is not paying the bills, and the world will see it as a default and the USA losing its financial integrity & reliability.

And those with $trilions offshore will be in the catbird's seat.

They could also get screwed like Cyprus did the Rich Russians who hid there money in banks there. They will not be backed by the FDIC Federal Reserve system.

 

[Toro]

There is no reason the government would default except by choice because tax revenues coming in are more than ample to pay the debt payments.

However, given that Obama is actually intentionally doing things to cause pain, he probably won't make the payments to further his propaganda campaign against Republicans.

However, I do not agree that would be catastrophic. The left like to say that, but the market hasn't melted down over the government shut down and even if debt payments weren't made, it's not like the Greece situation where we couldn't make payments. And everyone who wants the debt payments also wants us to deal with our deficits.

This is the Y2K computer meltdown all over again. Remember the meltdown ... that didn't happen.

If the default on the debt occurred, and it dragged out, I believe the results could be catastrophic. It wouldn't be for the first few days or weeks as the market believes the parties will eventually come to a deal. But, when they suddenly come to realize interest isn't being paid, you could have a repeat of Lehman. The Fed would them get involved in an even bigger way. US Treasury securities are the lynchpin of the global financial system.

But maybe I'm wrong, I don't know.

The market generally acts in the reverse of what you describe, they react then calm down. They don't generally stay calm then react. It's because investors expect risk adjusted returns, it's the risk part of the equation.

BTW, people who operate in markets also follow the news.

Perhaps you'd like to sell me a put option then?

You aren't paying attention to what's happening. It's acting like the market did prior to August 2011.

The market didn't believe the politicians were batshit insane in August 2011 when they were last fucking around with the debt ceiling. Then, when they realized that, indeed, the politicians may be batshit insane, the market fell 15%-20% in 10 trading days.

Since then, the market has become inured to some extent to a default. It believes the Republicans will not go over the cliff because of Obamacare.

 

[HenryBHough]

No, Henry. I sold $92,000 worth. That was all I had left after cashing out 80% of my investments in 2008, right before the Bush recession, and parking it all into certificates of deposit. Thanks to democratic party produced Medicare and Social Security, plus living frugally with no debt (I even pay cash for cars), I'll never have to work again.

You?

Since you asked....

In 2006 I told the broker that each time one of my holdings hit a 52-week high he was to sell 10%. I, too, got about 80% out before there were no more 52-week highs. But there we differ. I watched real estate bottom out and bought just days prematurely. Still, enough of a rise (and rents in the interim) that it was quite tasty.

Now? Why bother; trick is to know the meaning of "enough".

BUT beware selling off now and buying back the same, or even similar stocks, too soon. Look up the rules on "wash" sales and you may be nauseated.

 

[Steven_R]

As of 4 PM Atlantic time today, I don't give a rat's ass what the republicans do. I sold every stock I own. I plan to buy them all back at bargain prices after the Tea party suceeds in causing another recession.

Wow!

Sold BOTH of them?

No, Henry. I sold $92,000 worth. That was all I had left after cashing out 80% of my investments in 2008, right before the Bush recession, and parking it all into certificates of deposit. Thanks to democratic party produced Medicare and Social Security, plus living frugally with no debt (I even pay cash for cars), I'll never have to work again.

You?

At least until you get hit with means testing. Someone is going to notice the CDs and savings accounts and IRAs and 401ks and once they figure out you have cash, kiss the Medicare and SSI goodbye.

The tit is dry.

 

[oldfart]

Dr. Ben Carson found that out after his comments at the National Prayer Breakfast in February, where he verbally excoriated the president who was sitting mere feet to his right. The next thing he knows, a day or so later, he was paid a visit by an IRS auditor.

I call bullshit. Anyone with a smattering of knowledge of tax law or IRS procedure would know that your account cannot possibly be true. I have read Carson's statement and he never claimed what you are claiming. You are embellishing an already ridiculous story.

 

[KissMy]

This is from S&P's historic downgrade of the U.S. credit rating on Aug. 5, 2011:

"More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011."

At the time, one could argue that 2011 was just a blip, that there was a Tea Party "fever" caused by the horrible economy, and the exploding debt, and the unique political situation.

But since then we are in an even worse political situation in 2013 than they were in 2011. S&P's assessment that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of U.S. policy-making had weakened quite a bit, and deserved to play a role in the downgrade was quite astute.

 

[QuickHitCurepon]

If the USA is unable to pay even $1 of its obligations, our interest rates will jump, world markets will fall, and the the USA will enter a new Great Recession.

The world relies on the USA being a stone of financial reliability and integrity.

If that dies, all bets are off. I'm glad I moved my 401K into the stable income fund cause this shit might get VERY bad.

The world might thrive also. Our 60 years of success may be just what has kept the third world down all this time.

 

[Hoffstra]

Only an unPatriotic traitor would actually wish for the USA to default.

 

[Lumpy 1]

Only an unPatriotic traitor would actually wish for the USA to default.

Sounds like Obama for sure..

 

[Steven_R]

Only an unPatriotic traitor would actually wish for the USA to default.

Or somebody who understands that the tit really is dry and kicking the can to our children and grandchildren isn't really fair and that something has to give.

 

[Hoffstra]

Only an unPatriotic traitor would actually wish for the USA to default.

Sounds like Obama for sure..

Obama isn't a Tea Bagger.

 

[birddog]

Only an unPatriotic traitor would actually wish for the USA to default.

Sounds like Obama for sure..

Obama isn't a Tea Bagger.

No, he doesn't believe in trying to follow the Constitution! Obama is a lying POS!

 

[RandallFlagg]

Dr. Ben Carson found that out after his comments at the National Prayer Breakfast in February, where he verbally excoriated the president who was sitting mere feet to his right. The next thing he knows, a day or so later, he was paid a visit by an IRS auditor.

I call bullshit. Anyone with a smattering of knowledge of tax law or IRS procedure would know that your account cannot possibly be true. I have read Carson's statement and he never claimed what you are claiming. You are embellishing an already ridiculous story.

I do not not know exactly when Carson was audited. However, he WAS audited by the IRS (for the first time in his life) AFTER the February prayer breakfast. Coincidence? I doubt it.

Just like when that radio broadcaster from Florida was audited EVERY year after giving Bill Clinton hell in the 90s.

Do your homework and look it up - I'm tired of doing the liberals research for them.

 

[BreezeWood]

Only an unPatriotic traitor would actually wish for the USA to default.

Or somebody who understands that the tit really is dry and kicking the can to our children and grandchildren isn't really fair and that something has to give.

like raising the rates on 100K income and above would be a good start - for someone who understands ....


.

 

[Lumpy 1]

Only an unPatriotic traitor would actually wish for the USA to default.

Sounds like Obama for sure..

Obama isn't a Tea Bagger.

I'm satisfied with how you described him earlier but you are correct as far as Tea Party beliefs , Obama shows no interest in the Constitution or fiscal restraint, good point...

 

[Hoffstra]

No, he doesn't believe in trying to follow the Constitution! Obama is a lying POS!

Tea Baggers and following the Constitution, are mutually exclusive.

 

[Vandalshandle]

No, Henry. I sold $92,000 worth. That was all I had left after cashing out 80% of my investments in 2008, right before the Bush recession, and parking it all into certificates of deposit. Thanks to democratic party produced Medicare and Social Security, plus living frugally with no debt (I even pay cash for cars), I'll never have to work again.

You?

Since you asked....

In 2006 I told the broker that each time one of my holdings hit a 52-week high he was to sell 10%. I, too, got about 80% out before there were no more 52-week highs. But there we differ. I watched real estate bottom out and bought just days prematurely. Still, enough of a rise (and rents in the interim) that it was quite tasty.

Now? Why bother; trick is to know the meaning of "enough".

BUT beware selling off now and buying back the same, or even similar stocks, too soon. Look up the rules on "wash" sales and you may be nauseated.

Not a problem. All I have is a 30 day freeze on buying stocks again. That means that I can get back into the market on Nov. 6.

 

[RKMBrown]

If someone calls you and threatens to ruin your credit, if you don't do what they want you to do, they can be arrested for extortion.

So can the FBI arrest House Republicans for extortion?

No but we can hang Obama for treason if he defaults on the debt. By law the debt gets paid from the receipts. There is no reason to default on our debts, we don't need to borrow any more money, the feds will have to learn to do more with less and stop crying about it.

 

[Vandalshandle]

There is absolutely not going to be a default. Default =depression.

Treasury Default Could Crash US, Global Economy: Bank Analyst Richard Bove, Leading To A Depression Lasting Decades

An agreement will be reached at the 11th hour. However, the world, and this nation's investors could lose confidence in the market before the 18th, siending the stock market into a downward spiral. If that happens, I intend to cash in on it, and buy, buy, buy (during the dip)